Annual Hudson Medal Discussion

Welcome everyone to the 2021 Hudson Medal Presentation. The Manley O. Hudson Medal, the Society’s highest honor, has been awarded since 1959 to a distinguished person of American or other nationality for outstanding contributions to scholarship and achievement in international law. The medal has been conferred on many luminaries, including Rosalyn Higgins, Tom Franck, Michael Reisman, Eli Lauterpacht, John Jackson, Bruno Simma, Peter Trooboff, and Stephen Breyer. I would like to thank Paul Reichler, Larry Martin, and ASIL Law Firm Leadership Circle Partner Foley Hoag LLP, for sponsoring this program—their eighth year of continuous sponsorship

Developing public health clinical decision support systems (CDSS) for the outpatient community in New York City: our experience

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Developing a clinically relevant set of quality measures that can be effectively used by an electronic health record (EHR) is difficult. Whether it is achieving internal consensus on relevant priority quality measures, communicating to EHR vendors' whose programmers generally lack clinical contextual knowledge, or encouraging implementation of EHR that meaningfully impacts health outcomes, the path is challenging. However, greater transparency of population health, better accountability, and ultimately improved health outcomes is the goal and EHRs afford us a realistic chance of reaching it in a scalable way.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>In this article, we summarize our experience as a public health government agency with developing measures for a public health oriented EHR in New York City in partnership with a commercial EHR vendor.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From our experience, there are six key lessons that we share in this article that we believe will dramatically increase the chance of success. First, define the scope and build consensus. Second, get support from executive leadership. Third, find an enthusiastic and competent software partner. Fourth, implement a transparent operational strategy. Fifth, create and test the EHR system with real life scenarios. Last, seek help when you need it.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite the challenges, we encourage public health agencies looking to build a similarly focused public health EHR to create one both for improved individual patient as well as the larger population health.</p

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.</p

Role of CCL3L1-CCR5 Genotypes in the Epidemic Spread of HIV-1 and Evaluation of Vaccine Efficacy

Polymorphisms in CCR5, the major coreceptor for HIV, and CCL3L1, a potent CCR5 ligand and HIV-suppressive chemokine, are determinants of HIV-AIDS susceptibility. Here, we mathematically modeled the potential impact of these genetic factors on the epidemic spread of HIV, as well as on its prevention.Ro, the basic reproductive number, is a fundamental concept in explaining the emergence and persistence of epidemics. By modeling sexual transmission among HIV+/HIV- partner pairs, we find that Ro estimates, and concordantly, the temporal and spatial patterns of HIV outgrowth are highly dependent on the infecting partners' CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype. Ro was least and highest when the infected partner possessed protective and detrimental CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes, respectively. The modeling data indicate that in populations such as Pygmies with a high CCL3L1 gene dose and protective CCR5 genotypes, the spread of HIV might be minimal. Additionally, Pc, the critical vaccination proportion, an estimate of the fraction of the population that must be vaccinated successfully to eradicate an epidemic was <1 only when the infected partner had a protective CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype. Since in practice Pc cannot be >1, to prevent epidemic spread, population groups defined by specific CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes might require repeated vaccination, or as our models suggest, a vaccine with an efficacy of >70%. Further, failure to account for CCL3L1-CCR5-based genetic risk might confound estimates of vaccine efficacy. For example, in a modeled trial of 500 subjects, misallocation of CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype of only 25 (5%) subjects between placebo and vaccine arms results in a relative error of approximately 12% from the true vaccine efficacy.CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes may impact on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and, consequently, the observed heterogeneous global distribution of HIV infection. As Ro is lowest when the infecting partner has beneficial CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes, we infer that therapeutic vaccines directed towards reducing the infectivity of the host may play a role in halting epidemic spread. Further, CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype may provide critical guidance for optimizing the design and evaluation of HIV-1 vaccine trials and prevention programs

Empirical Research on Bilateral Investment Treaties

Does the partisan orientation of a developing country’s leadership influence the country’s adoption of foreign investment-related laws and policies? Since the formative days of international business studies, observers have suggested that partisan politics might influence the policy environment for foreign investment. Curiously, however, the most well developed empirical literature on the determinants of foreign investment policy (particularly the strand exploring the determinants of expropriation) has largely if not completely ignored the potential role of partisanship. In this article I argue that partisanship offers a potentially useful proxy for the ideas that developing country leaders hold about the costs and benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI). Partisans of the left have historically been likely to view FDI as relatively undesirable, and have accordingly been relatively less likely than partisans of the right to adopt pro-FDI policies. However, I suggest that partisan thinking about FDI has converged in recent years, as the left has updated its beliefs about whether FDI is beneficial. I statistically test these expectations against a large dataset that analyzes the probability that developing countries will sign pro-FDI international treaties

Annual Hudson Medal Discussion

Welcome everyone to the 2021 Hudson Medal Presentation. The Manley O. Hudson Medal, the Society’s highest honor, has been awarded since 1959 to a distinguished person of American or other nationality for outstanding contributions to scholarship and achievement in international law. The medal has been conferred on many luminaries, including Rosalyn Higgins, Tom Franck, Michael Reisman, Eli Lauterpacht, John Jackson, Bruno Simma, Peter Trooboff, and Stephen Breyer. I would like to thank Paul Reichler, Larry Martin, and ASIL Law Firm Leadership Circle Partner Foley Hoag LLP, for sponsoring this program—their eighth year of continuous sponsorship