Retrieving cloud ice masses from geostationary images with neural networks

Clouds are essential to the Earth\u27s energy budget and atmospheric circulation. Despite this, many cloud parameters are poorly known, including the mass of frozen hydrometeors. On the one hand, there will be specialized satellite missions targeting such hydrometeors. On the other hand, existing satellite data can be leveraged. There should be a particular interest in using geostationary satellite observations since they provide continuous coverage. Traditionally, retrievals of cloud ice masses from geostationary measurements require solar reflectances, ignore any spatial correlations, and solely retrieve the vertically-integrated ice mass density, known as the ice water path.This thesis challenges the traditional approach by applying supervised learning against CloudSat collocations, the only existing satellite mission targeting ice clouds. A set of neural networks is assembled to compare the performance of using different visible or infrared channels as retrieval input as well as the added value of using spatial context. The retrievals are probabilistic, in the sense that all neural networks predict quantiles to estimate the retrieval irreducible uncertainty, and thus represent the state of the art for atmospheric retrievals.With several spectral channels, infrared retrievals are found to have a similar performance compared to the peak accuracy offered by the combination of visible and infrared channels. However, the infrared-only retrievals enable a consistent diurnal performance. The use of spatial information reinforces the retrievals, which is demonstrated by the ability to provide skilful three-dimensional estimates of ice masses, known as ice water content, from only one infrared channel. The latter retrieval scheme is supported by an extensive validation with independent measurements.These neural network-based retrievals offer the possibility to derive new insights into cloud physics, reduce present ice cloud uncertainties, and validate climate models. Ideally, such retrieval schemes will complement the sparse measurements from specialized instruments. Finally, this thesis contains the groundwork for executing retrievals on multidecadal geostationary observations, offering unprecedented spatially and temporally continuous three-dimensional data for the tropics and mid-latitudes. The implementation of these ongoing retrievals is publicly released as part of the Chalmers Cloud Ice Climatology

Ice water path retrievals from Meteosat-9 using quantile regression neural networks

The relationship between geostationary radiances and ice water path (IWP) is complex, and traditional retrieval approaches are not optimal. This work applies machine learning to improve the IWP retrieval from Meteosat-9 observations, with a focus on low latitudes, training the models against retrievals based on CloudSat. Advantages of machine learning include avoiding explicit physical assumptions on the data, an efficient use of information from all channels, and easily leveraging spatial information. Thermal infrared (IR) retrievals are used as input to achieve a performance independent of the solar angle. They are compared with retrievals including solar reflectances as well as a subset of IR channels for compatibility with historical sensors. The retrievals are accomplished with quantile regression neural networks. This network type provides case-specific uncertainty estimates, compatible with non-Gaussian errors, and is flexible enough to be applied to different network architectures. Spatial information is incorporated into the network through a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture. This choice outperforms architectures that only work pixelwise. In fact, the CNN shows a good retrieval performance by using only IR channels. This makes it possible to compute diurnal cycles, a problem that CloudSat cannot resolve due to its limited temporal and spatial sampling. These retrievals compare favourably with IWP retrievals in CLAAS, a dataset based on a traditional approach. These results highlight the possibilities to overcome limitations from physics-based approaches using machine learning while providing efficient, probabilistic IWP retrieval methods. Moreover, they suggest this first work can be extended to higher latitudes as well as that geostationary data can be considered as a complement to the upcoming Ice Cloud Imager mission, for example, to bridge the gap in temporal sampling with respect to space-based radars