MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems

The open-source modeling framework MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) combines economic and biophysical approaches to simulate spatially explicit global scenarios of land use within the 21st century and the respective interactions with the environment. Besides various other projects, it was used to simulate marker scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and contributed substantially to multiple IPCC assessments. However, with growing scope and detail, the non-linear model has become increasingly complex, computationally intensive and non-transparent, requiring structured approaches to improve the development and evaluation of the model. Here, we provide an overview on version 4 of MAgPIE and how it addresses these issues of increasing complexity using new technical features: modular structure with exchangeable module implementations, flexible spatial resolution, in-code documentation, automatized code checking, model/output evaluation and open accessibility. Application examples provide insights into model evaluation, modular flexibility and region-specific analysis approaches. While this paper is focused on the general framework as such, the publication is accompanied by a detailed model documentation describing contents and equations, and by model evaluation documents giving insights into model performance for a broad range of variables. With the open-source release of the MAgPIE 4 framework, we hope to contribute to more transparent, reproducible and collaborative research in the field. Due to its modularity and spatial flexibility, it should provide a basis for a broad range of land-related research with economic or biophysical, global or regional focus

Analysis Of The Relationship Between Microregional Human Development And Brazil's Greenhouse Gas Emission

Historicamente, o desenvolvimento humano tem se pautado em ganhos econômicos associados a atividades energo-intensivas, as quais, muitas vezes, emitem grande massa de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE’s). Essa conjuntura demanda que sejam estipuladas metas globais de mitigação desses gases, de modo a desassociar o desenvolvimento humano das emissões e evitar alterações climáticas indesejáveis. O Brasil se apresenta como um dos países que mais emitem GEE’s, mas possui também alto potencial de mitigação. Para que esse potencial seja explorado sem que se comprometa o desenvolvimento das sociedades menos desenvolvidas, é de fundamental importância que se discuta tais reduções em âmbito intranacional e numa perspectiva de equidade distributiva. Na presente pesquisa, são apresentadas algumas considerações sobre quais microrregiões brasileiras devem reduzir emissões de GEE’s, quando as reduções devem ser iniciadas e qual a sua magnitude. Para tanto, partiu-se da pressuposição metodológica, já estabelecida na literatura, de que o desenvolvimento humano e a massa de emissões se apresentem no futuro tal como se observou seu comportamento no passado. Além disso, pressupõe-se que uma vez que uma microrregião torna-se desenvolvida, ela seja capaz de manter os ganhos de desenvolvimento humano sem a necessidade de continuar a elevar as taxas de emissões xiide GEEs. O Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Microregional (IDHMicro) e as emissões de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO 2 eq) foram extrapolados até o ano de 2050, o que permitiu calcular quando as microrregiões se tornarão desenvolvidas e a massa de GEE’s emitida. O Brasil deve lançar 300 Gt de CO 2 eq na atmosfera entre 2011 e 2050, dos quais somente 50 Gt serão emitidas pelas microrregiões antes que se desenvolvam e 250 Gt serão lançados após o desenvolvimento. Também foram determinadas metas nacionais de mitigação e estruturados esquemas de redução proporcionais ao desenvolvimento de cada microrregião. A microrregião de São Paulo (SP), a mais desenvolvida do país, seria a maior responsável por mitigações, emitindo, em 2050, 90% a menos do que o valor observado em 2010. Por outro lado, microrregiões menos desenvolvidas teriam reduções menos impactantes. Por exemplo, Vale do Ipanema (PE) deverá emitir, em 2050, apenas 10% abaixo do valor observado em 2010. O resultado agregado seria a emissão nacional, em 2050, de 56,5% abaixo do observado em 2010 e as emissões acumuladas entre 2011 e 2050 reduziriam em 130 Gt CO 2 eq em relação a projeção inicial (300 Gt). Associar a magnitude das reduções ao presente nível de desenvolvimento humano das microrregiões incentiva a adoção de políticas que privilegiem ambas as variáveis, dado que o planejador político terá de lidar tanto com a crescente demanda por melhores padrões de vida quanto com a crescente magnitude da redução de emissões. As disparidades entre metas de mitigação das diversas microrregiões a partir de uma perspectiva de equidade distributiva apresentadas neste exercício de simulação ressaltaram a importância de considerar as heterogeneidades na determinação das metas individuais de mitigação. De modo geral, entende-se que as proposições e discussões apresentadas devem ser consideradas na formulação de políticas de mitigação no Brasil independentemente da meta de redução adotada.Historically, human development has been based on economic gains associated with intensive energy activities, which often are exhaustive in the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). It requires the establishment of targets for mitigation of GHGs in order to disassociate the human development from emissions and prevent further climate change. Brazil presents itself as one of the most GHGs emitters and it is of critical importance to discuss such reductions in intra-national framework with the objective of distributional equity to explore its full mitigation potential without compromising the development of less developed societies. This research displays some incipient considerations about which Brazil’s micro-regions should reduce, when the reductions should be initiated and what its magnitude should be. We started with the methodological assumption that human development and GHGs emissions arise in the future as their behavior was observed in the past. Furthermore, we assume that once a micro-region became developed, it is able to maintain gains in human development without the need of keep growing GHGs emissions rates. The human development index and the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2e) were extrapolated to the year 2050, which allowed us to calculate when the micro-regions will become developed and the mass of GHG’s emitted. The results indicate that Brazil must throw 300 GT CO2e xivin the atmosphere between 2011 and 2050, of which only 50 GT will be issued by micro-regions before it’s develop and 250 GT will be released after development. We also determined national mitigation targets and structured reduction schemes where only the developed micro-regions would be required to reduce. The micro-region of São Paulo, the most developed of the country, should be also the one that reduces emissions at most, emitting, in 2050, 90% less than the value observed in 2010. On the other hand, less developed micro-regions will be responsible for less impactful reductions, i.e. Vale do Ipanema will issue in 2050 only 10% below the value observed in 2010. Such methodological assumption would lead the country to issue, in 2050, 56.5% lower than that observed in 2010, so that the cumulative emissions between 2011 and 2050 would reduce by 130 GT CO2e over the initial projection. The fact of associating the magnitude of the reductions to the level of human development of the micro-regions encourages the adoption of policies that favor both variables as the governmental planner will have to deal with both the increasing demand for higher standards of living and with the increasing magnitude of reducing emissions. However, if economic agents do not act proactively in local and national level, the country is closer to the scenario in which emits more than the one in which mitigates emissions. The research highlighted the importance of considering the heterogeneity in determining individual mitigation targets and also ratified the theoretical and methodological feasibility to allocate larger share of contribution for those who historically emitted more. It is understood that the proposals and discussions presented should be considered in mitigation policy formulation in Brazil regardless of the adopted reduction target.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superio

Brazilian future land-use dynamics and impacts of deforestation policies

Land use interacts with a dichotomous relationship between agricultural production and forest conservation, it depends on socioeconomic and biophysical features, and it has time and geographic specific dynamics. National environmental policies can drive national land-use change (LUC) and, due to interconnected global markets, it affects international land dynamics in positive or negative ways. The present research uses a global land-use model to assess Brazilian land-use dynamics by projecting and evaluating i) Brazilian LUC over this century and ii) the national and international impacts of Brazilian deforestation policies over 2050. Results on LUC over this century suggest that Brazilian land use can evolve in diverse pathways depending on the socioeconomic and biophysical assumptions. Pastureland presents an important decrease in the next decades while cropland takes over it and keeps increasing up to 2040, especially in the South and Northeast. Deforestation and depletion of natural land fade out in the next decades and this dynamic can be due to the abandonment of pasturelands and to policies to reduce deforestation. If the world tracks the path to stay below the 2- degree warming, Brazil would benefit of the establishment of a biofuel market by producing and exporting bioenergy crops, but at the cost of increased food prices due to higher land competition. Results on the impacts of deforestation mitigation revealed that these policies have a major impact on reducing deforestation in Brazil. Mitigation policies for Legal Amazon and Cerrado present a net saving of up to 50 million ha of forestland from 1995 to 2050 and are associated with higher crop yields. This policy promotes agricultural reallocation to other countries, resulting in deforestation and Carbon emissions in these countries, but such effects are lower than the Brazilian mitigation. This counterbalancing demonstrates that Brazil’s mitigation results are higher than its effective contribution to global mitigation. By one side, the diverse land-use pathways to 2100 suggest that Brazil may still have time to drive its LUC according to its interests. However, as relative global results are lower than the individual Brazilian achievement, the time that Brazil may still have to act and drive its land use may also be used to design cooperative international policies in order to enhance global effectiveness.O uso da terra interage com a relação dicotômica entre produção agrícola e a conservação da floresta, depende de características socioeconômicas e biofísicas, e possui dinâmicas específicas de tempo e geográficas. Políticas ambientais nacionais podem determinar mudanças de uso da terra em nível nacional e, devido a mercados globais interconectados, afetam também essa dinâmica em nível internacional, de formas positivas ou negativas. A presente pesquisa usa um modelo global de uso da terra para i) projetar e avaliar a dinâmica brasileira de uso da terra ao longo deste século e ii) os impactos nacionais e internacionais das políticas brasileiras de desmatamento até 2050. Os resultados sugerem que o uso da terra no Brasil pode evoluir em diversos caminhos, dependendo dos pressupostos socioeconômicos e biofísicos. A área de pastagem reduz nas próximas décadas, enquanto a área agrícola expande sobre pastagens abandonadas até 2040, especialmente no sul e nordeste. O desmatamento e depleção de áreas naturais reduz e se estabiliza nas próximas décadas e essa dinâmica pode ser devido ao abandono das pastagens e às políticas de redução do desmatamento. Caso siga-se as trajetórias que mantém a temperatura média global abaixo de 2 graus, o Brasil se beneficiaria do estabelecimento de um mercado de biocombustíveis produzindo e exportando culturas de bioenergia, mas em um cenário de aumento dos preços dos alimentos devido à maior competição agrícola. Os resultados sobre a política desmatamento na Amazônia Legal e Cerrado contribuem com uma preservação líquida de até 50 milhões de hectares de florestas entre 1995 e 2050. Tal política promove também realocação agropecuária para outros países, resultando em desmatamento e emissões de Carbono nesses países, porém estes efeitos não são maiores que a mitigação brasileira. Esse contrapeso demonstra que os resultados de mitigação do Brasil são mais altos do que sua contribuição efetiva para a mitigação global. Por um lado, os diversos caminhos de uso da terra até 2100 sugerem que o Brasil ainda pode ter tempo para conduzir suas mudanças de uso da terra de acordo com seus melhores interesses. No entanto, como os resultados globais relativos são mais baixos do que os resultados individuais brasileiros, o tempo que o Brasil ainda pode ter para agir e direcionar seu uso da terra também deve ser usado para desenvolver políticas internacionais cooperativas de mitigação a fim de aumentar a eficácia global dessas políticas.A Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerai

Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective

International frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation usually disregard country-specific inequalities for the allocation of mitigation burdens. This may hinder low developed regions in a country from achieving development in a socioeconomic perspective, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2). We use observed data (1991–2010) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and a sub-national human development index (MicroHDI, range [0, 1]) for Brazilian microregions to design a framework where regional mitigation burdens are proportional to the MicroHDI, without compromising national mitigation pledges. According to our results, the less developed Brazilian regions have not been basing their development in emission-intensive activities; instead, the most developed regions have. Between 2011 and 2050, Brazilian cumulative emissions from the sectors most correlated with MicroHDI are expected to be 325 Gt CO2eq, of which only 50 Gt are associated with regions of MicroHDI < 0.8. Assuming a national GHG mitigation target of 56.5% in 2050 over 2010 (consistent with limiting global warming to 2 ºC), Brazil would emit 190 Gt CO2eq instead of 325 Gt and the 135 Gt reduction is only accounted for by regions after reaching MicroHDI ≥ 0.8. Allocating environmental restrictions to the high-developed regions leaves ground for the least developed ones to pursue development with fewer restrictions. Our heterogeneous framework represents a fairer allocation of mitigation burdens which could be implemented under the concepts of green economy. This work could be an international reference for addressing both environmental and socioeconomic development in developing countries at sub-national level as emphasized by the SDGs

Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective

International frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation usually disregard country-specific inequalities for the allocation of mitigation burdens. This may hinder low developed regions in a country from achieving development in a socioeconomic perspective, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2). We use observed data (1991–2010) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and a sub-national human development index (MicroHDI, range [0, 1]) for Brazilian microregions to design a framework where regional mitigation burdens are proportional to the MicroHDI, without compromising national mitigation pledges. According to our results, the less developed Brazilian regions have not been basing their development in emission-intensive activities; instead, the most developed regions have. Between 2011 and 2050, Brazilian cumulative emissions from the sectors most correlated with MicroHDI are expected to be 325 Gt CO2eq, of which only 50 Gt are associated with regions of MicroHDI < 0.8. Assuming a national GHG mitigation target of 56.5% in 2050 over 2010 (consistent with limiting global warming to 2 ºC), Brazil would emit 190 Gt CO2eq instead of 325 Gt and the 135 Gt reduction is only accounted for by regions after reaching MicroHDI ≥ 0.8. Allocating environmental restrictions to the high-developed regions leaves ground for the least developed ones to pursue development with fewer restrictions. Our heterogeneous framework represents a fairer allocation of mitigation burdens which could be implemented under the concepts of green economy. This work could be an international reference for addressing both environmental and socioeconomic development in developing countries at sub-national level as emphasized by the SDGs

Investment needs to achieve SDGs: An overview

Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated investment needs at the global scale has not been conducted since the adoption of SDGs in 2015. This study provides such an overview. Estimates for investment needs are found for nine goals: SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 4 (quality education), SGD 6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG7 (access to energy), SDG 9 (infrastructure), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 14 (life below water), and SDG 15 (life on land). The reviewed studies vary significantly in terms of applied methodology, the assumed targets that need to be achieved, and presented estimates, but overall they indicate significantly higher investment needs to achieve all covered SDGs than previous estimates suggest. For most SDGs, annual investment needs are in the order of hundreds of billion USD annually, and for SDG6 and SDG13 estimates of a trillion or more are reported

Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective

International frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation usually disregard country-specific inequalities for the allocation of mitigation burdens. This may hinder low developed regions in a country from achieving development in a socioeconomic perspective, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2). We use observed data (1991–2010) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and a sub-national human development index (MicroHDI, range [0, 1]) for Brazilian microregions to design a framework where regional mitigation burdens are proportional to the MicroHDI, without compromising national mitigation pledges. According to our results, the less developed Brazilian regions have not been basing their development in emission-intensive activities; instead, the most developed regions have. Between 2011 and 2050, Brazilian cumulative emissions from the sectors most correlated with MicroHDI are expected to be 325 Gt CO2eq, of which only 50 Gt are associated with regions of MicroHDI < 0.8. Assuming a national GHG mitigation target of 56.5% in 2050 over 2010 (consistent with limiting global warming to 2 ºC), Brazil would emit 190 Gt CO2eq instead of 325 Gt and the 135 Gt reduction is only accounted for by regions after reaching MicroHDI ≥ 0.8. Allocating environmental restrictions to the high-developed regions leaves ground for the least developed ones to pursue development with fewer restrictions. Our heterogeneous framework represents a fairer allocation of mitigation burdens which could be implemented under the concepts of green economy. This work could be an international reference for addressing both environmental and socioeconomic development in developing countries at sub-national level as emphasized by the SDGs

Investment needs to achieve SDGs: An overview

Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated investment needs at the global scale has not been conducted since the adoption of SDGs in 2015. This study provides such an overview. Estimates for investment needs are found for nine goals: SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 4 (quality education), SGD 6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG7 (access to energy), SDG 9 (infrastructure), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 14 (life below water), and SDG 15 (life on land). The reviewed studies vary significantly in terms of applied methodology, the assumed targets that need to be achieved, and presented estimates, but overall they indicate significantly higher investment needs to achieve all covered SDGs than previous estimates suggest. For most SDGs, annual investment needs are in the order of hundreds of billion USD annually, and for SDG6 and SDG13 estimates of a trillion or more are reported

MAgPIE - An Open Source land-use modeling framework

&lt;h2&gt;[4.7.0] - 2023-12-11&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;h3&gt;changed&lt;/h3&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;14_yields_and_config&lt;/strong&gt; The new default is to not use yield calibration factors from a calibration run. The switch s14_use_yield_calib can optionally reenable the use of yield calibration factors.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;36_employment&lt;/strong&gt; regression between hourly labor regression and GDP pc changed from linear to log-log&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;inputdata&lt;/strong&gt; Now using inputdata rev4.94 which is based on 67420 cells (67k, previously 59k)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;scripts&lt;/strong&gt; For the emulator scripts select a different bioenergy demand variable that excludes bioenergy sources other than second generation bioenergy crops. Set the minimal bioenergy demand to zero. Both avoid artificial clustering of data points and allow for better fits.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;scripts&lt;/strong&gt; LUH2_disaggregation output script was modified. Specifically, flooded area was made compatible with the LUH definition, cropland and grazing land were added to the states.nc file, and specific naming/details (datatype, zname, xname, and yname) were added when creating the .nc files.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h3&gt;added&lt;/h3&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;14_yields/config&lt;/strong&gt; Added option for considering impacts of land degradation on yields. If &lt;code&gt;s14_degradation&lt;/code&gt; is switched to 1, MAgPIE will include cluster-specific information on the state of nature's contributions to people relevant for yields &lt;code&gt;./modules/14_yields/input/f14_yld_ncp_report.cs3&lt;/code&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;18_residues&lt;/strong&gt; Included cluster-level residue realization, for cluster-level production of residues (but balancing of recycling and burning budgets remains at region-level, for computational lightness)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;32_forestry&lt;/strong&gt; new interface &lt;code&gt;vm_land_forestry&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;58_peatland&lt;/strong&gt; added realization &quot;v2&quot; with updated peatland map and GHG emission factors&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h3&gt;fixed&lt;/h3&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;inputdata&lt;/strong&gt; There was a major bug (related to proj/terra) in the rev4.91 inputdata that was fixed with rev4.92&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;inputdata&lt;/strong&gt; There was another bug (terra default na.rm changed) in the inputdata that was fixed with rev4.93&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;scripts&lt;/strong&gt; Fixed a bug in NPI/NDC calculations leading to missing AD policies when run with 67k&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt