Resource Management in Computing Systems

Resource management is an essential building block of any modern computer and communication network. In this thesis, the results of our research in the following two tracks are summarized in four papers. The first track includes three papers and covers modeling, prediction and control for multi-tier computing systems. In the first paper, a NARX-based multi-step-ahead response time predictor for single server queuing systems is presented which can be applied to CPU-constrained computing systems. The second paper introduces a NARX-based multi-step-ahead query response time predictor for database servers. Both mentioned predictors can predict the dynamics of response times in the whole operation range particularly in high load scenarios without changes having to be applied to the current protocols and operating systems. In the third paper, queuing theory is used to model the dynamics of a database server. Several heuristics are presented to tune the parameters of the proposed model to the measured data from the database. Furthermore, an admission controller is presented, and its parameters are tuned to control the response time of queries which are sent to the database to stay below a predefined reference value.The second track includes one paper, covering a problem formulation and optimal solution for a content replication problem in Telecom operator's content delivery networks (Telco-CDNs). The problem is formulated in the form of an integer programming problem trying to minimize the communication delay and cost according to several constraints such as limited content replication budget, limited storage size and limited downlink bandwidth of each regional content server. The solution of this problem is a performance bound for any distributed content replication algorithm which addresses the same problem

NARX-based multi-step ahead response time prediction for database servers

Advanced telecommunication applications are often based on a multi-tier architecture, with application servers and database servers. With a rapidly increasing development of cloud computing and data centers, characterizations of the dynamics for database servers during changing workloads will be a key factor for analysis and performance improvements in these applications. We propose a multi-step ahead response time predictor for database queries based on a nonlinear autoregressive neural network model with exogenous inputs. The estimator shows many promising characteristics which make it a viable candidate for being implemented in admission control products for database servers. Performance of the proposed predictor is evaluated through experiments on a lab setup with a MySQL-server

Multi-step ahead response time prediction for single server queuing systems

Multi-step ahead response time prediction of CPU constrained computing systems is vital for admission control, overload protection and optimization of resource allocation in these systems. CPU constrained computing systems such as web servers can be modeled as single server queuing systems. These systems are stochastic and nonlinear. Thus, a well-designed nonlinear prediction scheme would be able to represent the dynamics of such a system much better than a linear scheme. A nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs based multi-step ahead response time predictor has been developed. The proposed estimator has many promising characteristics that make it a viable candidate for being implemented in admission control products for computing systems. It has a simple structure, is nonlinear, supports multi-step ahead prediction, and works very well under time variant and non-stationary scenarios such as single server queuing systems under time varying mean arrival rate. Performance of the proposed predictor is evaluated through simulation. Simulations show that the proposed predictor is able to predict the response times of single server queuing systems in multi-step ahead with very good precision represented by very small mean absolute and mean squared prediction errors

Application of Control Theory to a Commercial Mobile Service Support System

The Mobile Service Support system (MSS), which Ericsson AB develops, handles the setup of new subscribers and services into a mobile network. Experience from deployed systems show that traffic monitoring and control of the system will be crucial for handling overload situations that may occur at sudden traffic surges. In this paper we identify and explore some important control challenges for this type of systems. Further, we present analysis and experiments showing some advantages of proposed solutions. First, we develop a load-dependent server model for the system, which is validated in testbed experiments. Further, we propose a control design based on the model, and a method for estimation of response times and arrival rates. The main contribution of this paper is that we show how control theory methods and analysis can be used for commercial telecom systems. Parts of our results have been implemented in commercial products, validating the strength of our work

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Lopinavir/Ritonavir for COVID-19: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE: To provide the latest evidence on the efficacy and safety of lopinavir/ritonavir compared to other treatment options for COVID-19. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Cochran Library, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science for the relevant records up to April 2021. Moreover, we scanned MedRxiv, Google Scholar, and clinical registry databases to identify additional records. We have used the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and Cochrane risk of bias tools to assess the quality of studies. This Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan software (version 5.3). RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included. No significant difference was observed between lopinavir/ritonavir and non-antiviral treatment groups in terms of negative rate of PCR (polymerase chain reaction) on day 7 (risk ratio [RR]: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.63 to 1.09; P=0.17), and day 14 (RR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.05; P=0.25), PCR negative conversion time (mean difference [MD]: 1.09; 95% CI: -0.10 to 2.29; P=0.07), secondary outcomes, and adverse events (P\u3e0.05). There was no significant difference between lopinavir/ritonavir and chloroquine as well as lopinavir/ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine regarding the efficacy outcomes (P\u3e0.05). However, lopinavir/ritonavir showed better efficacy than arbidol for the same outcomes (P0.05). CONCLUSION: Lopinavir/ritonavir has no more treatment effects than other therapeutic agents used herein in COVID-19 patients

Optimal Content Retrieval Latency for Chunk Based Cooperative Content Replication in Delay Tolerant Networks

Modern content distribution networks face an increasing multitude of content generators. In order to reach the minimal content retrieval latency in the content distribution networks, content shall be disseminated towards consumers based on its popularity taken from the content distribution networks. This, Combined with dividing media into chunks (heterogeneous valuation of information) and contact duration of the consumers with the access points in delay tolerant networks led us to a novel system for content management in large scale distributed systems. In order to determine where to replicate content we formulated the problem as an integer programming problem. The cost function of this minimization problem is the accumulated weighted communication delay among the content replication servers and also the main content server. Various practical constraints such as limited total budget for content replication in each service provider, limited storage size and downlink bandwidth of the content replication servers are considered. A centralized solution to the problem is derived which gives the performance bound for any decentralized content replication strategy for the presented scenarios

Towards optimal content replication and request routing in content delivery networks

Cooperative content replication and request routing (C2R3) has emerged as a promising technique to enhance the efficiency of content delivery networks (CDN). Most existing approaches to C2R3 focus on efficient bandwidth usage and assume a hierarchical CDN architecture targeted towards the delivery of specific content types (e.g., video). Therefore, C2R3 problem of covering the broad range of content types with minimum content access delay in a general CDN architecture has attracted little attention. As a potential solution to C2R3, cooperative web caching techniques have become mature. However, these techniques were designed to improve performance indicators tailored to web contents only (i.e., hit rate and byte hit rate). Arguably, improving such indicators does not necessarily lead to optimal access delay especially when the current trend of user-generated contents with diverse popularities and sizes are taken into account. In this paper, we formulate C2R3 as an optimization problem with the objective of minimizing content access delay in a general CDN architecture. A new performance indicator is introduced, and two popularity-based cooperative algorithms are proposed to approach the NP-hard C2R3 problem. Under broad ranges of cache size and popularity distribution parameters, we compare the proposed methods with a cooperative recency-based web caching method. Our simulation results show that the popularity-based methods outperform the recency-based method, and demonstrate close to optimal performance in representative scenarios of real-world situations

Performance modelling of database servers in a Telecommunication Service Management system

Resource optimization mechanisms, as admission control and traffic management, require accurate performance models that capture the dynamics of the system during high loads. The main objective of this paper is to develop an accurate performance model for database servers in a telecommunication service management system. We investigate the use of a server model with load dependency. Concurrent requests add load to the system and decrease the server capacity. We derive explicit equations for the state probabilities, the average number of jobs in the system and the average response times. Further, we present some heuristics on how to tune the parameters for given measurement data. Also, using testbed experiments, we validate that the model accurately captures the dynamics of a database server with write-heavy workload

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere