When China Sneezes, Asia Catches a Cold: the Effects of China’s Export Decline in the Realm of the Global Economic Crisis

In this discussion report, we dispel the widely held misconception that China’s economy is excessively export-dependent and therefore particularly vulnerable to a drop in export demand. In the past two decades, China’s dramatic exports rise has largely been driven by the fact that many foreign firms have offshored a slice of their value chain – labor-intensive final assembly – to China for export purposes. Many of these assembly plants heavily rely on imported inputs from East Asian economies to produce their export products. Because of this feature, China passes on a large portion of its negative export demand shocks to the East Asian economies by reducing demand for their imported inputs. Using recent trade data, we provide evidence of this business cycle pass-through during the current economic crisis.

The role of trade costs in global production networks : evidence from China's processing trade regime

In a seminal contribution, Yi (2003) has shown that vertically specialized trade should be more sensitive to changes in trade costs than regular trade. Yet empirical evidenceof this remains remarkably scant. This paper uses data from China's processing trade regime to analyze the role of trade costs on trade within global production networks (GPNs). Under this regime, firms are granted duty exemptions on imported inputs as long as they are used solely for export purposes. As a result, the data provide information on trade between three sequential nodes of a global supply chain: the location of input production, the location of processing (in China) and the location of further consumption. This makes it possible to examine the role of both trade costs related to the import of inputs (upstream trade costs) and trade costs related to the export of final goods (downstream trade costs) on intra-GPN trade. The authors show that intra-GPN trade differs from regular trade in that it not only depends on downstream trade costs, but also on upstream trade costs and the interaction of both. Moreover, intra-GPN trade is more sensitive to oil price movements and business cycle movements than regular trade. Finally, the paper analyzes three channels through which intra-GPN trade have amplified the trade collapse during the recent Global Recession.Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates

World Trade Flows: 1962-2000

We document a set of bilateral trade data by commodity for 1962-2000, which is available from www.nber.org/data (International Trade Data, NBER-UN world trade data). Users must agree not to resell or distribute the data for 1984-2000. The data are organized by the 4-digit Standard International Trade Classification, revision 2, with country codes similar to the United Nations classification. This dataset updates the Statistics Canada World Trade Database as described in Feenstra, Lipsey, and Bowen (1997), which was available for years 1970-1992. In that database, Statistics Canada had revised the United Nations trade data, mostly derived from the export side, to fit the Canadian trade classification and in some cases to add data not available from the export reports. In contrast, in the new NBER-UN dataset we give primacy to the trade flows reported by the importing country, whenever they are available, assuming that these are more accurate than reports by the exporters. If the importer report is not available for a country-pair, however, then the corresponding exporter report is used instead. Corrections and additions are made to the United Nations data for trade flows to and from the United States, exports from Hong Kong and China, and imports into many other countries.

Is Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller?

The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth — in the words of Rubin (2009), “…Your world is going to get a whole lot smaller.” Using data from China’s Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of oil prices on trade’s sensitivity to distance. We find that higher oil prices increase trade’s elasticity to distance, but that the economic effect is small. We also find that the effect is more pronounced for trade within global production networks, and less large for goods shipped by air.oil prices, distance, trade, vertical specialization, mode of transport, China,

Understanding Dwarf Galaxies in order to Understand Dark Matter

Much progress has been made in recent years by the galaxy simulation community in making realistic galaxies, mostly by more accurately capturing the effects of baryons on the structural evolution of dark matter halos at high resolutions. This progress has altered theoretical expectations for galaxy evolution within a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model, reconciling many earlier discrepancies between theory and observations. Despite this reconciliation, CDM may not be an accurate model for our Universe. Much more work must be done to understand the predictions for galaxy formation within alternative dark matter models.Comment: Refereed contribution to the Proceedings of the Simons Symposium on Illuminating Dark Matter, to be published by Springe

Assessing nonresponse bias at follow-up in a large prospective cohort of relatively young and mobile military service members

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nonresponse bias in a longitudinal study could affect the magnitude and direction of measures of association. We identified sociodemographic, behavioral, military, and health-related predictors of response to the first follow-up questionnaire in a large military cohort and assessed the extent to which nonresponse biased measures of association.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data are from the baseline and first follow-up survey of the Millennium Cohort Study. Seventy-six thousand, seven hundred and seventy-five eligible individuals completed the baseline survey and were presumed alive at the time of follow-up; of these, 54,960 (71.6%) completed the first follow-up survey. Logistic regression models were used to calculate inverse probability weights using propensity scores.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Characteristics associated with a greater probability of response included female gender, older age, higher education level, officer rank, active-duty status, and a self-reported history of military exposures. Ever smokers, those with a history of chronic alcohol consumption or a major depressive disorder, and those separated from the military at follow-up had a lower probability of response. Nonresponse to the follow-up questionnaire did not result in appreciable bias; bias was greatest in subgroups with small numbers.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings suggest that prospective analyses from this cohort are not substantially biased by non-response at the first follow-up assessment.</p