Construction and the Great Recession

The boom in real estate prices during the early 2000s and the subsequent bust were key factors underlying the recessions in the United States and Europe.Financial crises ; Recessions ; Housing - Prices

The Information Technology Revolution and the Puzzling Trends in Tobin’s average q

A growing literature argues that the Information Technology rev- olution caused the stock market crash of 1973-1974, its subsequent stagnation and eventual recovery. This paper employs general equi- librium theory to test whether this good news hypothesis is consistent with the behavior of US equity prices and with the trends in corpo- rate output, investment and consumption. I …nd it is not. A model based exclusively on good news can make equity prices fall as much as in the data but it must also imply a strong economic expansion right when the US economy stagnated. However, when the observed productivity slowdown in old production methods is incorporated into the model consistency with major macroeconomic aggregates can be achieved and a 20% drop in equity values can be accounted for. (JEL E44, O33, O41)Information Technology Revolution, Stock Market, Productivity Slowdown, Tobin's q, 1974, Crash

The Information Technology Revolution and the Puzzling Trends in Tobin’s average q

A growing literature argues that the Information Technology rev- olution caused the stock market crash of 1973-1974, its subsequent stagnation and eventual recovery. This paper employs general equi- librium theory to test whether this good news hypothesis is consistent with the behavior of US equity prices and with the trends in corpo- rate output, investment and consumption. I …nd it is not. A model based exclusively on good news can make equity prices fall as much as in the data but it must also imply a strong economic expansion right when the US economy stagnated. However, when the observed productivity slowdown in old production methods is incorporated into the model consistency with major macroeconomic aggregates can be achieved and a 20% drop in equity values can be accounted for. (JEL E44, O33, O41)Stock Market, Tobin's q Technological Change, Productivity Slowdown 1974, Information Technology Revolution

Searching for the financial accelerator: how credit affects the business cycle

Firms started repaying their debts during 2008-2009, and they did so while simultaneously accumulating highly liquid assets. These two observations are puzzling if one believes firms are purportedly starving for credit but cannot obtain it.Credit ; Business cycles

Households during the Great Recession: the financial accelerator in action?

Households are the sector that the financial accelerator appears to have hit hardest, according to the data.Households ; Recessions

Jobless recoveries or jobless growth?

Jobless recoveries since 2000 may be attributed to a slowdown in the long-term employment trend.Unemployment ; Employment ; Labor market

Modelling intra-daily volatility by functional data analysis: an empirical application to the spanish stock market

We propose recent functional data analysis techniques to study the intra-daily volatility. In particular, the volatility extraction is based on functional principal components and the volatility prediction on functional AR(1) models. The estimation of the corresponding parameters is carried out using the functional equivalent to OLS. We apply these ideas to the empirical analysis of the IBEX35 returns observed each _ve minutes. We also analyze the performance of the proposed functional AR(1) model to predict the volatility along a given day given the information in previous days for the intra-daily volatility for the firms in the IBEX35 Madrid stocks inde

Developing Asia's Competitive Advantage in Green Products: Learning from the Japanese Experience

Right now, governments around the world are spending record amounts of money to kick-start their economies in response to the financial crisis. Fortunately, a great opportunity exists for this fiscal stimulus to be directed towards "green" economic growth, which can not only provide the new markets and jobs needed immediately for alleviating poverty, but also address the challenges of global warming. Working models already exist, proving that sustainable growth is possible. To achieve this will require social, technical and structural changes, as well as appropriate policies conducive to eco-innovation. For developing countries, there are lessons that can be learned from countries that have already gone through that process. The aim of this paper is to show what lessons can be learnt from the Japanese case. As the world's second largest economy, Japan is not only one of the most energy-efficient economies in the world; it also produces some of the world's leading green technologies. This paper focuses on current trends in the green product market and consumer behavior in Japan, which have been influenced by recent government policies, particularly the ¥15.4 trillion (more than US$100 billion) stimulus package. The aim of this paper is to provide some insight on, and present a repository of selected government policies promoting sustainable development. The scope of this paper will cover areas such as hybrid vehicles, renewable energy, energy efficient home appliances, and green certification schemes. It also provides a brief discussion on the environmental policies of the new Japanese government that came into power on 16 September 2009. The paper attempts to use the most recent data, from June to August 2009, however given the quickly-evolving global environment, these statistics may change drastically by the time this paper is presented.japanese government environmental policies; sustainable development; vehicle pollution policies

Accuracy of simulations for stochastic dynamic models

This paper provides a general framework for the simulation of stochastic dynamic models. Our analysis rests upon a continuity property of invariant distributions and a generalized law of large numbers. We then establish that the simulated moments from numerical approximations converge to their exact values as the approximation errors of the computed solutions converge to zero. These asymptotic results are of further interest in the comparative study of dynamic solutions, model estimation, and derivation of error bounds for the simulated moments

What happened to the U.S. stock market? accounting for the past 50 years

The extreme volatility of stock market values has been the subject of a large body of literature. Previous research focused on the short run because of a widespread belief that in the long run the market reverts to well-established fundamentals. The authors' research suggests this belief should be questioned. First, they show actual dividends cannot account for the secular trends of stock market values. They then consider a more comprehensive measure of capital income, which displays large secular fluctuations that roughly coincide with changes in stock market trends. Under perfect foresight, however, this measure fails to properly account for stock market movements. The authors thus abandon the perfect foresight assumption and instead assume that forecasts of future capital income are performed using a distributed lag equation and information available up to the forecasting period only. They find that standard asset-pricing theory can be reconciled with the secular trends in the stock market. This study, nevertheless, leaves open an important puzzle for asset-pricing theory: The market value of U.S. corporations was much lower than the replacement cost of corporate tangible assets from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s.Stock market ; Asset pricing