The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

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Finite temperature phase transition for disordered weakly interacting bosons in one dimension

It is commonly accepted that there are no phase transitions in one-dimensional (1D) systems at a finite temperature, because long-range correlations are destroyed by thermal fluctuations. Here we demonstrate that the 1D gas of short-range interacting bosons in the presence of disorder can undergo a finite temperature phase transition between two distinct states: fluid and insulator. None of these states has long-range spatial correlations, but this is a true albeit non-conventional phase transition because transport properties are singular at the transition point. In the fluid phase the mass transport is possible, whereas in the insulator phase it is completely blocked even at finite temperatures. We thus reveal how the interaction between disordered bosons influences their Anderson localization. This key question, first raised for electrons in solids, is now crucial for the studies of atomic bosons where recent experiments have demonstrated Anderson localization in expanding very dilute quasi-1D clouds.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Microscopic observation of magnon bound states and their dynamics

More than eighty years ago, H. Bethe pointed out the existence of bound states of elementary spin waves in one-dimensional quantum magnets. To date, identifying signatures of such magnon bound states has remained a subject of intense theoretical research while their detection has proved challenging for experiments. Ultracold atoms offer an ideal setting to reveal such bound states by tracking the spin dynamics after a local quantum quench with single-spin and single-site resolution. Here we report on the direct observation of two-magnon bound states using in-situ correlation measurements in a one-dimensional Heisenberg spin chain realized with ultracold bosonic atoms in an optical lattice. We observe the quantum walk of free and bound magnon states through time-resolved measurements of the two spin impurities. The increased effective mass of the compound magnon state results in slower spin dynamics as compared to single magnon excitations. In our measurements, we also determine the decay time of bound magnons, which is most likely limited by scattering on thermal fluctuations in the system. Our results open a new pathway for studying fundamental properties of quantum magnets and, more generally, properties of interacting impurities in quantum many-body systems.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Power grip, pinch grip, manual muscle testing or thenar atrophy - which should be assessed as a motor outcome after carpal tunnel decompression? A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Objective assessment of motor function is frequently used to evaluate outcome after surgical treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). However a range of outcome measures are used and there appears to be no consensus on which measure of motor function effectively captures change. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify the methods used to assess motor function in randomized controlled trials of surgical interventions for CTS. A secondary aim was to evaluate which instruments reflect clinical change and are psychometrically robust.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The bibliographic databases Medline, AMED and CINAHL were searched for randomized controlled trials of surgical interventions for CTS. Data on instruments used, methods of assessment and results of tests of motor function was extracted by two independent reviewers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-two studies were retrieved which included performance based assessments of motor function. Nineteen studies assessed power grip dynamometry, fourteen studies used both power and pinch grip dynamometry, eight used manual muscle testing and five assessed the presence or absence of thenar atrophy. Several studies used multiple tests of motor function. Two studies included both power and pinch strength and reported descriptive statistics enabling calculation of effect sizes to compare the relative responsiveness of grip and pinch strength within study samples. The study findings suggest that tip pinch is more responsive than lateral pinch or power grip up to 12 weeks following surgery for CTS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although used most frequently and known to be reliable, power and key pinch dynamometry are not the most valid or responsive tools for assessing motor outcome up to 12 weeks following surgery for CTS. Tip pinch dynamometry more specifically targets the thenar musculature and appears to be more responsive. Manual muscle testing, which in theory is most specific to the thenar musculature, may be more sensitive if assessed using a hand held dynamometer – the Rotterdam Intrinsic Handheld Myometer. However further research is needed to evaluate its reliability and responsiveness and establish the most efficient and psychometrically robust method of evaluating motor function following surgery for CTS.</p

CUSUM: A tool for early feedback about performance?

BACKGROUND: Modern day clinical practice demands evidence justifying our choice of treatment methods. Cumulative sum techniques (cusum) are amongst the simplest statistical methods known. They provide rapid analysis and identification of trends in a series of data. This study highlights use of these techniques as an early performance indicator of a clinical procedure before its implementation. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent total hip or knee arthroplasty received a simple dressing – blue gauze and Tegaderm. Cusum charting was used to assess the dressing with regards to skin blistering. At an acceptable level of performance the curve would oscillate about the horizontal axis and the overall trend therefore said to be flat. If performance is unacceptable, the cusum slopes upward. RESULTS: The cusum plot for the twenty patients did not cross the specified control limits. This showed that our simple dressing met specified standards with regards to wound blistering postoperatively. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of this simple, yet versatile cusum technique in the early evaluation of a clinical procedure before its implementation

Effect of changes over time in the performance of a customized SAPS-II model on the quality of care assessment

Purpose: The aim of our study was to explore, using an innovative method, the effect of temporal changes in the mortality prediction performance of an existing model on the quality of care assessment. The prognostic model (rSAPS-II) was a recalibrated Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II model developed for very elderly Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. Methods: The study population comprised all 12,143 consecutive patients aged 80 years and older admitted between January 2004 and July 2009 to one of the ICUs of 21 Dutch hospitals. The prospective dataset was split into 30 equally sized consecutive subsets. Per subset, we measured the model's discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)], accuracy (Brier score), and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), both without and after repeated recalibration. All performance measures were considered to be stable if 1 without and after repeated recalibration for the year 2009. Results: For all subsets, the AUCs were stable, but the Brier scores and SMRs were not. The SMR was downtrending, achieving levels significantly below 1. Repeated recalibration rendered it stable again. The proportions of hospitals with SMR>1 and SMR <1 changed from 15 versus 85% to 35 versus 65%. Conclusions: Variability over time may markedly vary among different performance measures, and infrequent model recalibration can result in improper assessment of the quality of care in many hospitals. We stress the importance of the timely recalibration and repeated validation of prognostic models over tim

A falls prevention programme to improve quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older people receiving home help services: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries in older adults are associated with great burdens, both for the individuals, the health care system and the society. Previous research has shown evidence for the efficiency of exercise as falls prevention. An understudied group are older adults receiving home help services, and the effect of a falls prevention programme on health-related quality of life is unclear. The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial is to examine the effect of a falls prevention programme on quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older adults receiving home help services. A secondary aim is to explore the mediating factors between falls prevention and health-related quality of life. METHODS: The study is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Participants are older adults, aged 67 or older, receiving home help services, who are able to walk with or without walking aids, who have experienced at least one fall during the last 12 months and who have a Mini Mental State Examination of 23 or above. The intervention group receives a programme, based on the Otago Exercise Programme, lasting 12 weeks including home visits and motivational telephone calls. The control group receives usual care. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life (SF-36). Secondary outcomes are leg strength, balance, walking speed, walking habits, activities of daily living, nutritional status and falls efficacy. All measurements are performed at baseline, following intervention at 3 months and at 6 months' follow-up. Sample size, based on the primary outcome, is set to 150 participants randomised into the two arms, including an estimated 15-20% drop out. Participants are recruited from six municipalities in Norway. DISCUSSION: This trial will generate new knowledge on the effects of an exercise falls prevention programme among older fallers receiving home help services. This knowledge will be useful for clinicians, for health managers in the primary health care service and for policy makers

Simulated effect of pneumococcal vaccination in the Netherlands on existing rules constructed in a non-vaccinated cohort predicting sequelae after bacterial meningitis

BACKGROUND: Previously two prediction rules identifying children at risk of hearing loss and academic or behavioral limitations after bacterial meningitis were developed. Streptococcus pneumoniae as causative pathogen was an important risk factor in both. Since 2006 Dutch children receive seven-valent conjugate vaccination against S. pneumoniae. The presumed effect of vaccination was simulated by excluding all children infected by S. pneumoniae with the serotypes included in the vaccine, from both previous collected cohorts (between 1990-1995). METHODS: Children infected by one of the vaccine serotypes were excluded from both original cohorts (hearing loss: 70 of 628 children; academic or behavioral limitations: 26 of 182 children). All identified risk factors were included in multivariate logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of both new models was calculated. RESULTS: The same risk factors as in the original models were significant. The discriminative ability of the original hearing loss model was 0.84 and of the new model 0.87. In the academic or behavioral limitations model it was 0.83 and 0.84 respectively. CONCLUSION: It can be assumed that the prediction rules will also be applicable on a vaccinated population. However, vaccination does not provide 100% coverage and evidence is available that serotype replacement will occur. The impact of vaccination on serotype replacement needs to be investigated, and the prediction rules must be validated externally

Haptoglobin Phenotype, Preeclampsia Risk and the Efficacy of Vitamin C and E Supplementation to Prevent Preeclampsia in a Racially Diverse Population

Haptoglobin's (Hp) antioxidant and pro-angiogenic properties differ between the 1-1, 2-1, and 2-2 phenotypes. Hp phenotype affects cardiovascular disease risk and treatment response to antioxidant vitamins in some non-pregnant populations. We previously demonstrated that preeclampsia risk was doubled in white Hp 2-1 women, compared to Hp 1-1 women. Our objectives were to determine whether we could reproduce this finding in a larger cohort, and to determine whether Hp phenotype influences lack of efficacy of antioxidant vitamins in preventing preeclampsia and serious complications of pregnancy-associated hypertension (PAH). This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial in which 10,154 low-risk women received daily vitamin C and E, or placebo, from 9-16 weeks gestation until delivery. Hp phenotype was determined in the study prediction cohort (n = 2,393) and a case-control cohort (703 cases, 1,406 controls). The primary outcome was severe PAH, or mild or severe PAH with elevated liver enzymes, elevated serum creatinine, thrombocytopenia, eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, medically indicated preterm birth or perinatal death. Preeclampsia was a secondary outcome. Odds ratios were estimated by logistic regression. Sampling weights were used to reduce bias from an overrepresentation of women with preeclampsia or the primary outcome. There was no relationship between Hp phenotype and the primary outcome or preeclampsia in Hispanic, white/other or black women. Vitamin supplementation did not reduce the risk of the primary outcome or preeclampsia in women of any phenotype. Supplementation increased preeclampsia risk (odds ratio 3.30; 95% confidence interval 1.61-6.82, p<0.01) in Hispanic Hp 2-2 women. Hp phenotype does not influence preeclampsia risk, or identify a subset of women who may benefit from vitamin C and E supplementation to prevent preeclampsia

The challenges faced in the design, conduct and analysis of surgical randomised controlled trials

Randomised evaluations of surgical interventions are rare; some interventions have been widely adopted without rigorous evaluation. Unlike other medical areas, the randomised controlled trial (RCT) design has not become the default study design for the evaluation of surgical interventions. Surgical trials are difficult to successfully undertake and pose particular practical and methodological challenges. However, RCTs have played a role in the assessment of surgical innovations and there is scope and need for greater use. This article will consider the design, conduct and analysis of an RCT of a surgical intervention. The issues will be reviewed under three headings: the timing of the evaluation, defining the research question and trial design issues. Recommendations on the conduct of future surgical RCTs are made. Collaboration between research and surgical communities is needed to address the distinct issues raised by the assessmentof surgical interventions and enable the conduct of appropriate and well-designed trials.The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Scottish Government Health DirectoratesPeer reviewedPublisher PD