Unemployment Insurance Savings Accounts

We examine a system of Unemployment Insurance Saving Accounts (UISAs) as an alternative to the traditional unemployment insurance system. Individuals are required to save up to 4 percent of wages in special accounts and to draw unemployment compensation from these accounts instead of taking state unemployment insurance benefits. If the accounts are exhausted, the government lends money to the account. Positive accounts earn the return on commercial paper and negative accounts are charged that rate. Positive UISA balances are converted into retirement income or bequeathed if the individual dies before retirement age. Negative account balances are forgiven at retirement age. Money taken by an unemployed individual from a UISA with a positive balance reduces the individual's personal wealth by an equal amount. In this case, individuals fully internalize the cost of unemployment compensation. UISAs provide the same protection to the unemployed as the current UI system but with less of the adverse incentives. The key empirical question is whether accounts based on a moderate saving rate can finance a significant share of unemployment payments or whether the concentration of unemployment among a relatively small number of individuals implies that the UISA balances would typically be negative, forcing individuals to rely on government benefits with the same adverse effects that characterize the current UI system. To resolve this issue we use the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to simulate the UISA system over a 25 year historic period. Our analysis indicates that almost all individuals have positive UISA balances and therefore remain sensitive to the cost of unemployment compensation. Even among individuals who experience unemployment, most have positive account balances at the end of their unemployment spell. Although about half of the benefit dollars would go to individuals whose accounts are negative at the end of their working life, less than one third of the benefits go to individuals who also have negative account balances when unemployed. These facts suggest a substantial potential improvement in the incentives of the unemployed. The cost to taxpayers of forgiving the negative balances is substantially less than half of the taxpayer cost of the current UI system. Our analysis of the distribution of lifetime UISA payments and taxes of household heads shows the top quintile gaining a small cumulative amount while those in the bottom quintile lose a very small cumulative amount. Other quintiles are small net gainers.Economic

Actions Speak Louder Than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer

Assessing the impact of the individual actions performed by soccer players during games is a crucial aspect of the player recruitment process. Unfortunately, most traditional metrics fall short in addressing this task as they either focus on rare actions like shots and goals alone or fail to account for the context in which the actions occurred. This paper introduces (1) a new language for describing individual player actions on the pitch and (2) a framework for valuing any type of player action based on its impact on the game outcome while accounting for the context in which the action happened. By aggregating soccer players' action values, their total offensive and defensive contributions to their team can be quantified. We show how our approach considers relevant contextual information that traditional player evaluation metrics ignore and present a number of use cases related to scouting and playing style characterization in the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons in Europe's top competitions.Comment: Significant update of the paper. The same core idea, but with a clearer methodology, applied on a different data set, and more extensive experiments. 9 pages + 2 pages appendix. To be published at SIGKDD 201

Gauss Composition for P^1, and the universal Jacobian of the Hurwitz space of double covers

We investigate the universal Jacobian of degree n line bundles over the Hurwitz stack of double covers of P^1 by a curve of genus g. Our main results are: the construction of a smooth, irreducible, universally closed (but not separated) moduli compactification of this universal Jacobian; a description of the global geometry and moduli properties of these stacks; and a computation of the Picard groups of these stacks in the cases when n-g is even. An important ingredient of our work is the parametrization of line bundles on double covers by binary quadratic forms. This parametrization generalizes the classical number theoretic correspondence between ideal classes of quadratic rings and integral binary quadratic forms, which in particular gives the group law on integral binary quadratic forms first discovered by Gauss.Comment: mathematical and expositional updates and improvements, 29 pages, 5 figure

Default Risk and Equity Returns: A Comparison of the Bank-Based German and the U.S. Financial System

In this paper, we address the question whether the impact of default risk on equity returns depends on the financial system firms operate in. Using an implementation of Merton's option-pricing model for the value of equity to estimate firms' default risk, we construct a factor that measures the excess return of firms with low default risk over firms with high default risk. We then compare results from asset pricing tests for the German and the U.S. stock markets. Since Germany is the prime example of a bank-based financial system, where debt is supposedly a major instrument of corporate governance, we expect that a systematic default risk effect on equity returns should be more pronounced for German rather than U.S. firms. Our evidence suggests that a higher firm default risk systematically leads to lower returns in both capital markets. This contradicts some previous results for the U.S. by Vassalou/Xing (2004), but we show that their default risk factor looses its explanatory power if one includes a default risk factor measured as a factor mimicking portfolio. It further turns out that the composition of corporate debt affects equity returns in Germany. Firms' default risk sensitivities are attenuated the more a firm depends on bank debt financing

Reliability and Initial Validation of the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity

Background & AimsWe studied the reliability of the previously described Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) and validated it with an independent cohort of investigators.MethodsWe created a new library of 57 videos of flexible sigmoidoscopy and stratified them based on disease severity. Twenty-five investigators were each randomly assigned to assess 28 videos (which included 4 duplicates to assess intraobserver reliability). Investigators were blinded to clinical details except for 2 of 4 duplicated videos (to assess the impact of knowledge of symptoms on assessment). Three descriptors (“vascular pattern”, “bleeding”, and “erosions and ulcers”) comprising the UCEIS were scored with a visual analogue scale (VAS) to assess overall severity. Intrainvestigator and interinvestigator agreement was characterized by κ statistical analysis; reliability ratios were used to compare VAS and UCEIS scores.ResultsThere was a high level of correlation between UCEIS scores and overall assessment of severity (correlation coefficient, 0.93). Internal consistency (Cronbach α analysis) was 0.86. Intrainvestigator and interinvestigator reliability ratios for UCEIS scores were 0.96 and 0.88, respectively. Intrainvestigator agreement in determination of the UCEIS score was good (κ = 0.72), with individual descriptors ranging from a κ of 0.47 (for bleeding) to 0.87 (for vascular pattern). Interinvestigator agreement in determination of UCEIS scores was moderate (κ = 0.50), with descriptors ranging from a κ of 0.48 (for bleeding) to 0.54 (for vascular pattern). Intrainvestigator variability in determining UCEIS scores did not change appreciably when a video was presented with clinical details.ConclusionsThe UCEIS and its components show satisfactory intrainvestigator and interinvestigator reliability. Among investigators, the UCEIS accounted for a median of 86% of the variability in evaluation of overall severity on the VAS when assessing the endoscopic severity of UC and was unaffected by knowledge of clinical details

Default risk, state ownership and the cross-section of stock returns: evidence from China

We apply a structural model to estimate firm-level default risk in China and investigate the stock return predictability of default risk and the moderating effects of state ownership for the sample period from 2003 to 2015. We show unique evidence that in China, default risk is positively associated with expected stock returns and state ownership matters considerably to the return predictability of default risk. We find investors of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not compensated appropriately in China despite of their higher default risk exposure. Our empirical evidence supports the conjecture on shareholder advantages and suggests that a strong bargaining power of equity holders would have a negative impact on stock returns

DR*W201/P65 Tetramer Visualization of Epitope-Specific CD4 T-Cell during M. tuberculosis Infection and Its Resting Memory Pool after BCG Vaccination

In vivo kinetics and frequencies of epitope-specific CD4 T cells in lymphoid compartments during M. tuberculosis infection and their resting memory pool after BCG vaccination remain unknown.Macaque DR*W201 tetramer loaded with Ag85B peptide 65 was developed to directly measure epitope-specific CD4 T cells in blood and tissues form macaques after M. tuberculosis infection or BCG vaccination via direct staining and tetramer-enriched approach. The tetramer-based enrichment approach showed that P65 epitope-specific CD4 T cells emerged at mean frequencies of approximately 500 and approximately 4500 per 10(7) PBL at days 28 and 42, respectively, and at day 63 increased further to approximately 22,000/10(7) PBL after M. tuberculosis infection. Direct tetramer staining showed that the tetramer-bound P65-specific T cells constituted about 0.2-0.3% of CD4 T cells in PBL, lymph nodes, spleens, and lungs at day 63 post-infection. 10-fold expansion of these tetramer-bound epitope-specific CD4 T cells was seen after the P65 peptide stimulation of PBL and tissue lymphocytes. The tetramer-based enrichment approach detected BCG-elicited resting memory P65-specific CD4 T cells at a mean frequency of 2,700 per 10(7) PBL.Our work represents the first elucidation of in vivo kinetics and frequencies for tetramer-bound epitope-specific CD4 T cells in the blood, lymphoid tissues and lungs over times after M. tuberculosis infection, and BCG immunization

Peptide-MHC heterodimers show that thymic positive selection requires a more restricted set of self-peptides than negative selection

T cell selection and maturation in the thymus depends on the interactions between T cell receptors (TCRs) and different self-peptide–major histocompatibility complex (pMHC) molecules. We show that the affinity of the OT-I TCR for its endogenous positively selecting ligands, Catnb-H-2Kb and Cappa1-H-2Kb, is significantly lower than for previously reported positively selecting altered peptide ligands. To understand how these extremely weak endogenous ligands produce signals in maturing thymocytes, we generated soluble monomeric and dimeric peptide–H-2Kb ligands. Soluble monomeric ovalbumin (OVA)-Kb molecules elicited no detectable signaling in OT-I thymocytes, whereas heterodimers of OVA-Kb paired with positively selecting or nonselecting endogenous peptides, but not an engineered null peptide, induced deletion. In contrast, dimer-induced positive selection was much more sensitive to the identity of the partner peptide. Catnb-Kb–Catnb-Kb homodimers, but not heterodimers of Catnb-Kb paired with a nonselecting peptide-Kb, induced positive selection, even though both ligands bind the OT-I TCR with detectable affinity. Thus, both positive and negative selection can be driven by dimeric but not monomeric ligands. In addition, positive selection has much more stringent requirements for the partner self-pMHC

Developing an instrument to assess the endoscopic severity of ulcerative colitis : The Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS)

Full list of Investigators is given at the end of the article.Background: Variability in endoscopic assessment necessitates rigorous investigation of descriptors for scoring severity of ulcerative colitis (UC). Objective: To evaluate variation in the overall endoscopic assessment of severity, the intra- and interindividual variation of descriptive terms and to create an Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity which could be validated. Design: A two-phase study used a library of 670 video sigmoidoscopies from patients with Mayo Clinic scores 0-11, supplemented by 10 videos from five people without UC and five hospitalised patients with acute severe UC. In phase 1, each of 10 investigators viewed 16/24 videos to assess agreement on the Baron score with a central reader and agreed definitions of 10 endoscopic descriptors. In phase 2, each of 30 different investigators rated 25/60 different videos for the descriptors and assessed overall severity on a 0-100 visual analogue scale. κ Statistics tested inter- and intraobserver variability for each descriptor. A general linear mixed regression model based on logit link and β distribution of variance was used to predict overall endoscopic severity from descriptors. Results: There was 76% agreement for 'severe', but 27% agreement for 'normal' appearances between phase I investigators and the central reader. In phase 2, weighted κ values ranged from 0.34 to 0.65 and 0.30 to 0.45 within and between observers for the 10 descriptors. The final model incorporated vascular pattern, (normal/patchy/ complete obliteration) bleeding (none/mucosal/luminal mild/luminal moderate or severe), erosions and ulcers (none/erosions/superficial/deep), each with precise definitions, which explained 90% of the variance (pR2, Akaike Information Criterion) in the overall assessment of endoscopic severity, predictions varying from 4 to 93 on a 100-point scale (from normal to worst endoscopic severity). Conclusion: The Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity accurately predicts overall assessment of endoscopic severity of UC. Validity and responsiveness need further testing before it can be applied as an outcome measure in clinical trials or clinical practice.publishersversionPeer reviewe