A phase II study of medroxyprogesterone acetate in patients with hormone receptor negative metastatic breast cancer: translational breast cancer research consortium trial 007

Preclinical data suggest that medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) has both anti-metastatic and anti-angiogenic activity in the absence of hormone receptors (HR). This phase II trial assessed the activity of MPA alone or in combination with low-dose chemotherapy in patients with metastatic HR-negative breast cancer. Postmenopausal women with HR-negative disease were eligible if they had not received more than 3 chemotherapy regimens for metastatic disease. All patients were treated with MPA 1,000–1,500 mg/day orally; patients in cohort two also received low-dose oral cyclophosphamide and methotrexate (ldCM, 50 mg/day and 2.5 mg twice daily on Days 1 and 2 each week). Tissue and circulating biomarkers were assessed serially. The primary endpoint was clinical benefit response defined as objective response or stable disease >6 months. Thirty patients were enrolled (14 MPA monotherapy; 16 MPA + ldCM); median age was 55 (35–80); nearly all had visceral involvement. Despite dose escalation in 90 % of patients, only 17 (57 %) patients ever achieved MPA trough concentrations >50 ng/ml. One patient developed grade 4 renal failure in the setting of rapid disease progression and dehydration. There were no objective responses. One patient in each cohort (~7 %) had stable disease for > 6 months. Skin Nm23 expression increased after 4 weeks of MPA + ldCM, but there were no significant changes in TSP-1, PAI-1 antigen, or PAI-1 activity. MPA had limited activity and does not warrant further development in patients with HR-negative advanced breast cancer. Poor bioavailability limited exposure despite dose escalation

Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico

During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here, we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioral changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March–June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by exports of COVID-19 cases from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronized. Our results provide dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modeling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general

Supernova / Acceleration Probe: A Satellite Experiment to Study the Nature of the Dark Energy

The Supernova / Acceleration Probe (SNAP) is a proposed space-based experiment designed to study the dark energy and alternative explanations of the acceleration of the Universe's expansion by performing a series of complementary systematics-controlled measurements. We describe a self-consistent reference mission design for building a Type Ia supernova Hubble diagram and for performing a wide-area weak gravitational lensing study. A 2-m wide-field telescope feeds a focal plane consisting of a 0.7 square-degree imager tiled with equal areas of optical CCDs and near infrared sensors, and a high-efficiency low-resolution integral field spectrograph. The SNAP mission will obtain high-signal-to-noise calibrated light-curves and spectra for several thousand supernovae at redshifts between z=0.1 and 1.7. A wide-field survey covering one thousand square degrees resolves ~100 galaxies per square arcminute. If we assume we live in a cosmological-constant-dominated Universe, the matter density, dark energy density, and flatness of space can all be measured with SNAP supernova and weak-lensing measurements to a systematics-limited accuracy of 1%. For a flat universe, the density-to-pressure ratio of dark energy can be similarly measured to 5% for the present value w0 and ~0.1 for the time variation w'. The large survey area, depth, spatial resolution, time-sampling, and nine-band optical to NIR photometry will support additional independent and/or complementary dark-energy measurement approaches as well as a broad range of auxiliary science programs. (Abridged)Comment: 40 pages, 18 figures, submitted to PASP, http://snap.lbl.go

Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance

Improvements in surveillance, prediction of outbreaks and the monitoring of the epidemiology of dengue virus in countries with underdeveloped surveillance systems are of great importance to ministries of health and other public health decision makers who are often constrained by budget or man-power. Google Flu Trends has proven successful in providing an early warning system for outbreaks of influenza weeks before case data are reported. We believe that there is greater potential for this technique for dengue, as the incidence of this pathogen can vary by a factor of ten in some settings, making prediction all the more important in public health planning. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of Google search terms in predicting dengue incidence in Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand using several regression techniques. Incidence data were provided by the Singapore Ministry of Health and the Thailand Bureau of Epidemiology. We find our models predict incident cases well (correlation greater than 0.8) and periods of high incidence equally well (AUC greater than 0.95). All data and analysis code used in our study are available free online and can be adapted to other settings

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Identification and Evaluation of Epidemic Prediction and Forecasting Reporting Guidelines: A Systematic Review and a Call for Action

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. RESULTS: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health

Orbital effects of a monochromatic plane gravitational wave with ultra-low frequency incident on a gravitationally bound two-body system

We analytically compute the long-term orbital variations of a test particle orbiting a central body acted upon by an incident monochromatic plane gravitational wave. We assume that the characteristic size of the perturbed two-body system is much smaller than the wavelength of the wave. Moreover, we also suppose that the wave's frequency is much smaller than the particle's orbital one. We make neither a priori assumptions about the direction of the wavevector nor on the orbital geometry of the planet. We find that, while the semi-major axis is left unaffected, the eccentricity, the inclination, the longitude of the ascending node, the longitude of pericenter and the mean anomaly undergo non-vanishing long-term changes. They are not secular trends because of the slow modulation introduced by the tidal matrix coefficients and by the orbital elements themselves. They could be useful to indepenedently constrain the ultra-low frequency waves which may have been indirectly detected in the BICEP2 experiment. Our calculation holds, in general, for any gravitationally bound two-body system whose characteristic frequency is much larger than the frequency of the external wave. It is also valid for a generic perturbation of tidal type with constant coefficients over timescales of the order of the orbital period of the perturbed particle.Comment: LaTex2e, 24 pages, no figures, no tables. Changes suggested by the referees include

Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines : a systematic review and a call for action

NGR reports funding by NIGMS grant R35GM119582. BMA is supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the Global Good Fund. SP and IMB were funded by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch (GEIS: P0116_19_WR_03.11).Introduction: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. Methods: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. Results: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. Conclusions: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Clinical and Genetic Risk Factors for Adverse Metabolic Outcomes in North American Testicular Cancer Survivors

Background: Testicular cancer survivors (TCS) are at significantly increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), with metabolic syndrome (MetS) an established risk factor. No study has addressed clinical and genetic MetS risk factors in North American TCS. Patients and Methods: TCS were aged <55 years at diagnosis and received first-line chemotherapy. Patients underwent physical examination, and had lipid panels, testosterone, and soluble cell adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) evaluated. A single nucleotide polymorphism in rs523349 (5-α-reductase gene, SRD5A2), recently implicated in MetS risk, was genotyped. Using standard criteria, MetS was defined as ≥3 of the following: hypertension, abdominal obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, decreased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, and diabetes. Matched controls were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results: We evaluated 486 TCS (median age, 38.1 years). TCS had a higher prevalence of hypertension versus controls (43.2% vs 30.7%; P<.001) but were less likely to have decreased HDL levels (23.7% vs 34.8%; P<.001) or abdominal obesity (28.2% vs 40.1%; P<.001). Overall MetS frequency was similar in TCS and controls (21.0% vs 22.4%; P=.59), did not differ by treatment (P=.20), and was not related to rs523349 (P=.61). For other CVD risk factors, TCS were significantly more likely to have elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels (17.7% vs 9.3%; P<.001), total cholesterol levels (26.3% vs 11.1%; P<.001), and body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 (75.1% vs 69.1%; P=.04). On multivariate analysis, age at evaluation (P<.001), testosterone level ≤3.0 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR], 2.06; P=.005), and elevated sICAM-1 level (ORhighest vs lowest quartile, 3.58; P=.001) were significantly associated with MetS. Conclusions and Recommendations: Metabolic abnormalities in TCS are characterized by hypertension and increased LDL and total cholesterol levels but lower rates of decreased HDL levels and abdominal obesity, signifying possible shifts in fat distribution and fat metabolism. These changes are accompanied by hypogonadism and inflammation. TCS have a high prevalence of CVD risk factors that may not be entirely captured by standard MetS criteria. Cancer treatment–associated MetS requires further characterization