Using Multilevel Outcomes to Construct and Select Biomarker Combinations for Single-level Prediction

Biomarker studies may involve a multilevel outcome, such as no, mild, or severe disease. There is often interest in predicting one particular level of the outcome due to its clinical significance. The standard approach to constructing biomarker combinations in this context involves dichotomizing the outcome and using a binary logistic regression model. We assessed whether information can be usefully gained from instead using more sophisticated regression methods. Furthermore, it is often necessary to select among several candidate biomarker combinations. One strategy involves selecting a combination on the basis of its ability to predict the outcome level of interest. We propose an algorithm that leverages the multilevel outcome to inform combination selection. We apply this algorithm to data from a study of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery, where the kidney injury may be absent, mild, or severe. Using more sophisticated modeling approaches to construct combinations provided gains over the binary logistic regression approach in specific settings. In the examples considered, the proposed algorithm for combination selection tended to reduce the impact of bias due to selection and to provide combinations with improved performance. Methods that utilize the multilevel nature of the outcome in the construction and/or selection of biomarker combinations have the potential to yield better combinations

Biomarker Combinations for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Multicenter Studies: Principles and Methods

Many investigators are interested in combining biomarkers to predict an outcome of interest or detect underlying disease. This endeavor is complicated by the fact that many biomarker studies involve data from multiple centers. Depending upon the relationship between center, the biomarkers, and the target of prediction, care must be taken when constructing and evaluating combinations of biomarkers. We introduce a taxonomy to describe the role of center and consider how a biomarker combination should be constructed and evaluated. We show that ignoring center, which is frequently done by clinical researchers, is often not appropriate. The limited statistical literature proposes using random intercept logistic regression models, an approach that we demonstrate is generally inadequate and may be misleading. We instead propose using fixed intercept logistic regression, which appropriately accounts for center without relying on untenable assumptions. After constructing the biomarker combination, we recommend using performance measures that account for the multicenter nature of the data, namely the center-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We apply these methods to data from a multicenter study of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. Appropriately accounting for center, both in construction and evaluation, may increase the likelihood of identifying clinically useful biomarker combinations

Developing Biomarker Combinations in Multicenter Studies via Direct Maximization and Penalization

When biomarker studies involve patients at multiple centers and the goal is to develop biomarker combinations for diagnosis, prognosis, or screening, we consider evaluating the predictive capacity of a given combination with the center-adjusted AUC (aAUC), a summary of conditional performance. Rather than using a general method to construct the biomarker combination, such as logistic regression, we propose estimating the combination by directly maximizing the aAUC. Furthermore, it may be desirable to have a biomarker combination with similar predictive capacity across centers. To that end, we allow for penalization of the variability in center-specific performance. We demonstrate good asymptotic properties of the resulting combinations. Simulations provide small-sample evidence that maximizing the aAUC can lead to combinations with greater predictive capacity than combinations constructed via logistic regression. We further illustrate the utility of constructing combinations by maximizing the aAUC while penalizing variability. We apply these methods to data from a study of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery

Combining Biomarkers by Maximizing the True Positive Rate for a Fixed False Positive Rate

Biomarkers abound in many areas of clinical research, and often investigators are interested in combining them for diagnosis, prognosis and screening. In many applications, the true positive rate for a biomarker combination at a prespecified, clinically acceptable false positive rate is the most relevant measure of predictive capacity. We propose a distribution-free method for constructing biomarker combinations by maximizing the true positive rate while constraining the false positive rate. Theoretical results demonstrate good operating characteristics for the resulting combination. In simulations, the biomarker combination provided by our method demonstrated improved operating characteristics in a variety of scenarios when compared with more traditional methods for constructing combinations

Evidence for functional state transitions in intensively-managed soil ecosystems

Soils are fundamental to terrestrial ecosystem functioning and food security, thus their resilience to disturbances is critical. Furthermore, they provide effective models of complex natural systems to explore resilience concepts over experimentally-tractable short timescales. We studied soils derived from experimental plots with different land-use histories of long-term grass, arable and fallow to determine whether regimes of extreme drying and re-wetting would tip the systems into alternative stable states, contingent on their historical management. Prior to disturbance, grass and arable soils produced similar respiration responses when processing an introduced complex carbon substrate. A distinct respiration response from fallow soil here indicated a different prior functional state. Initial dry:wet disturbances reduced the respiration in all soils, suggesting that the microbial community was perturbed such that its function was impaired. After 12 drying and rewetting cycles, despite the extreme disturbance regime, soil from the grass plots, and those that had recently been grass, adapted and returned to their prior functional state. Arable soils were less resilient and shifted towards a functional state more similar to that of the fallow soil. Hence repeated stresses can apparently induce persistent shifts in functional states in soils, which are influenced by management history

Chromosome 7 and 19 Trisomy in Cultured Human Neural Progenitor Cells

BACKGROUND:Stem cell expansion and differentiation is the foundation of emerging cell therapy technologies. The potential applications of human neural progenitor cells (hNPCs) are wide ranging, but a normal cytogenetic profile is important to avoid the risk of tumor formation in clinical trials. FDA approved clinical trials are being planned and conducted for hNPC transplantation into the brain or spinal cord for various neurodegenerative disorders. Although human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) are known to show recurrent chromosomal abnormalities involving 12 and 17, no studies have revealed chromosomal abnormalities in cultured hNPCs. Therefore, we investigated frequently occurring chromosomal abnormalities in 21 independent fetal-derived hNPC lines and the possible mechanisms triggering such aberrations. METHODS AND FINDINGS:While most hNPC lines were karyotypically normal, G-band karyotyping and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) analyses revealed the emergence of trisomy 7 (hNPC(+7)) and trisomy 19 (hNPC(+19)), in 24% and 5% of the lines, respectively. Once detected, subsequent passaging revealed emerging dominance of trisomy hNPCs. DNA microarray and immunoblotting analyses demonstrate epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) overexpression in hNPC(+7) and hNPC(+19) cells. We observed greater levels of telomerase (hTERT), increased proliferation (Ki67), survival (TUNEL), and neurogenesis (beta(III)-tubulin) in hNPC(+7) and hNPC(+19), using respective immunocytochemical markers. However, the trisomy lines underwent replicative senescence after 50-60 population doublings and never showed neoplastic changes. Although hNPC(+7) and hNPC(+19) survived better after xenotransplantation into the rat striatum, they did not form malignant tumors. Finally, EGF deprivation triggered a selection of trisomy 7 cells in a diploid hNPC line. CONCLUSIONS:We report that hNPCs are susceptible to accumulation of chromosome 7 and 19 trisomy in long-term cell culture. These results suggest that micro-environmental cues are powerful factors in the selection of specific hNPC aneuploidies, with trisomy of chromosome 7 being the most common. Given that a number of stem cell based clinical trials are being conducted or planned in USA and a recent report in PLoS Medicine showing the dangers of grafting an inordinate number of cells, these data substantiate the need for careful cytogenetic evaluation of hNPCs (fetal or hESC-derived) before their use in clinical or basic science applications

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049