Estonia’s 2015 election result ensures the Reform Party will continue to dominate the country’s politics

Estonia held a parliamentary election on 1 March. Allan Sikk writes that while the nature of the coalition which emerges from the election remains to be seen, the result was another success for the Reform Party, which has been in government continuously for the last sixteen years

Mergers and splits: how party systems have changed in Central and Eastern Europe since 1990

The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than those in Western Europe, with a greater level of volatility in terms of the parties that compete in successive elections. But how has this picture changed since 1990? Using a new dataset covering 11 countries, Raimondas Ibenskas and Allan Sikk outline some of the key factors that have underpinned splits and mergers between different parties within the region

The spread of anti-establishment politics across Central and Eastern Europe may hold lessons for West European countries.

A number of European countries have witnessed increasing support for anti-establishment parties, most notably in Italy, where Beppe Grillo’s ‘Five Star Movement’ gained over 25 per cent of the vote in this year’s elections. Seán Hanley and Allan Sikk write that while such movements may be new to Western European politics, several anti-establishment parties have experienced similar breakthroughs in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. Outlining the results of a study on these parties, they formulate a typology for the conditions under which anti-establishment movements emerge

Patterns of party change in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990-2015

While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break electoral alliances, comparative systematic research on how these changes are related to each other is limited. This study addresses this gap by conceptualizing change as a result of intra-party conflicts, conflicts in or consolidation of existing electoral alliances, and the formation of new alliances and mergers. We develop measures for each type of change using an original dataset that covers almost 800 party-electoral term dyads in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe in the period between 1990 and 2015. Our findings contradict the idea of party change as a uni-dimensional phenomenon. Instead we find that exits from existing electoral alliances, their consolidation through mergers, and the formation of new alliances and mergers are moderately related to each other, but not with intra-party splits. Our findings suggest that parties and their alliances structure political competition in Central and Eastern Europe relatively well. Moreover, negative consequences of party change on representation and accountability are limited, as under the relative absence of multiple and nearly simultaneous changes in party identity the electorate should be able to follow party evolution

Social and Political Dimensions of the Eurozone Enlargement in the case of the Baltic States

This Regional Input is a supplement to Ezoneplus Working Paper No. 13 on the Social Dimension of the Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone. Political transition from authoritarian to democratic society has been extensive in all three Baltic States. The Baltic States are often examined together in political studies despite of the fact that there is much more variation among these countries in the political sphere than in the economic and social spheres. The problems stemming from the political sphere might be even more crucial for EU enlargement because of their relative instability and slow working comparing that to the economic and social concerns. Therefore this study emphasises some major political differences between the Baltic States that should be taken into account when analysing EU eastward enlargement processes. The paper aims to analyze social and political dimensions of eurozone enlargement in the Baltic States emphasizing also negative consequences of transition and integration processes and their possible impact on EU accession.Regional Input, Baltic States, social dimension, political dimension

Who stands in the way of women? Open vs. closed lists and candidate gender in Estonia

The literature on women's descriptive representation has looked at the debate on open and closed lists as a choice between electoral systems. This article instead focuses on whether voters or the parties are biased against female candidates. Using data from six Estonian elections, the article finds that voters are not consistently biased against female candidates and open lists do not necessarily decrease women's representation. However, unknown and non-incumbent female candidates fare significantly worse than similar men. The analysis also shows that parties do not place women in electable positions on closed lists, and closed lists do not improve women's representation

Economy, corruption or floating voters? Explaining the breakthroughs of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties in Eastern Europe

This paper discusses a new group of parties that we term anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs), which combine moderate social and economic policies with anti-establishment appeals and a desire to change the way politics is conducted. We analyse the electoral breakthroughs of AERPs in Eastern Europe (CEE), the region where AERPs have so been most successful. Examples include the Simeon II National Movement, GERB (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic) and Positive Slovenia. We examine the conditions under which such parties broke through in nine CEE states in 1997-2012 using Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). We find five sufficient causal paths combining high or rising corruption, rising unemployment and party system instability. Rising corruption plays a key role in most pathways but, unexpectedly, AERP breakthroughs are more closely associated with economic good times than bad

Book review: The European Union and the Baltic states: changing forms of governance

Following their accession to the EU, the Baltic states continue to approach the EU through a Nordic lens. Allan Sikk finds that The European Union and the Baltic States holds excellent insights into the micro-processes of accession, relevant to anyone interested in how states respond to EU pressures and adapt to the role of being members. The European Union and the Baltic States: Changing forms of governance. Bengt Jacobsson (ed). Routledge. 2010