Estonia’s 2015 election result ensures the Reform Party will continue to dominate the country’s politics

Estonia held a parliamentary election on 1 March. Allan Sikk writes that while the nature of the coalition which emerges from the election remains to be seen, the result was another success for the Reform Party, which has been in government continuously for the last sixteen years

Stuck in Reverse - BTI Regional Report East-Central and Southeast Europe

Overview of the transformation processes in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Sloveni

Mergers and splits: how party systems have changed in Central and Eastern Europe since 1990

The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than those in Western Europe, with a greater level of volatility in terms of the parties that compete in successive elections. But how has this picture changed since 1990? Using a new dataset covering 11 countries, Raimondas Ibenskas and Allan Sikk outline some of the key factors that have underpinned splits and mergers between different parties within the region

The Rise of Liberal Populism in Central and Eastern Europe? Using QCA to understand the Emergence of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties

This paper concerns a successful emerging group of parties in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) which combine anti-establishment appeals with support for moderate reform policies. Such anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs), as we term them include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Freedom and Solidarity (Slovakia), and TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic). Although widespread in the region, AERPs’ fortunes have varied. Some have enjoyed instant popularity and immediately gained government office, while others won limited support and remained political outsiders. In this paper we apply the two step Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique developed by Schneider and Wagemenn to consider the conditions for AERP (non-)breakthrough and government participation in CEE member states in the period 1998-2011. Our paper builds on the small but growing literature applying QCA to party development by using a combination of national and electoral contexts and individual parties (for government participation) as a unit of analysis. We also seek use the set theoretic logic to distinguish between sub-types of AERPs. Among explanatory conditions for AERP breakthrough we consider are levels and trends of unemployment and corruption; previous party system stability; the strength of radical populist challenges; and turnout. In our findings we identify six sufficient paths for AERP breakthrough in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, which can be further interpreted into three broad patterns. We conclude by reviewing the implications of our findings for research on AERPs in CEE and discussing how our analysis can be broadened to include party systems iWestern Europe, where a number of similar AERP-type parties can be identified. KEY WORDS: new parties, QCA, anti-establishment politics, Central and East Europ

The Rise of Liberal Populism in Central and Eastern Europe? Understanding the Emergence of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties

In this short discussion paper, we present an overview of our ongoing work on the emergence and success of an important new group of parties in contemporary Europe which combine populist anti-establishment rhetoric with support for free market reforms and/or demands for reforms to political systems and the conduct of political life more broadly. In doing so, we seek to contribute to a small but growing literature on the emergence of such parties, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, which has developed in recent years (Učeň et al 2005; Učeň 2007; Demker 2008; Deegan-Krause & Haughton 2009; Pop-Eleches 2010; Bågenholm and Heinö 2010). Authors label these parties variously as instances of new/centrist populism’ (Pop-Eleches 2010), ‘centrist populism’ (Učeň et al 2005; Učeň 2007) ‘anti-corruption parties’ (Bågenholm and Heinö 2010), while – for reasons explained below – we term them anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs). In the paper, we give a very brief review of the literature; offer a provisional definition of AERPs; flag key issues, as we see them concerning the emergence of AERPs and their implications for the functioning of democracy; and offer some early findings based on our work in the Central and East European (CEE) region

The spread of anti-establishment politics across Central and Eastern Europe may hold lessons for West European countries.

A number of European countries have witnessed increasing support for anti-establishment parties, most notably in Italy, where Beppe Grillo’s ‘Five Star Movement’ gained over 25 per cent of the vote in this year’s elections. Seán Hanley and Allan Sikk write that while such movements may be new to Western European politics, several anti-establishment parties have experienced similar breakthroughs in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. Outlining the results of a study on these parties, they formulate a typology for the conditions under which anti-establishment movements emerge

Patterns of party change in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990-2015

While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break electoral alliances, comparative systematic research on how these changes are related to each other is limited. This study addresses this gap by conceptualizing change as a result of intra-party conflicts, conflicts in or consolidation of existing electoral alliances, and the formation of new alliances and mergers. We develop measures for each type of change using an original dataset that covers almost 800 party-electoral term dyads in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe in the period between 1990 and 2015. Our findings contradict the idea of party change as a uni-dimensional phenomenon. Instead we find that exits from existing electoral alliances, their consolidation through mergers, and the formation of new alliances and mergers are moderately related to each other, but not with intra-party splits. Our findings suggest that parties and their alliances structure political competition in Central and Eastern Europe relatively well. Moreover, negative consequences of party change on representation and accountability are limited, as under the relative absence of multiple and nearly simultaneous changes in party identity the electorate should be able to follow party evolution

Paths to "Centrist Populism"? Explaining the Emergence of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties

WWe discuss an emerging group of successful parties in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) that combine anti-establishment appeals with support for moderate policies of political and social reform, which we term anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs). Examples include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Freedom and Solidarity (Slovakia), and TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic). We carry out a comparative analysis using the two step Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique developed as proposed by Schneider and Wagemann to identify the conditions under which AERPs made electoral breakthroughs in the period 1998-2011. We identify five sufficient paths for AERP breakthrough representing distinct combinations of several causal conditions: low but rising corruption, rising unemployment, previous success of new parties, increasing turnout, the presence of marketliberal incumbents, and strength of radical outsider parties. We conclude by reviewing the implications of our findings for further research

Social and Political Dimensions of the Eurozone Enlargement in the case of the Baltic States

This Regional Input is a supplement to Ezoneplus Working Paper No. 13 on the Social Dimension of the Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone. Political transition from authoritarian to democratic society has been extensive in all three Baltic States. The Baltic States are often examined together in political studies despite of the fact that there is much more variation among these countries in the political sphere than in the economic and social spheres. The problems stemming from the political sphere might be even more crucial for EU enlargement because of their relative instability and slow working comparing that to the economic and social concerns. Therefore this study emphasises some major political differences between the Baltic States that should be taken into account when analysing EU eastward enlargement processes. The paper aims to analyze social and political dimensions of eurozone enlargement in the Baltic States emphasizing also negative consequences of transition and integration processes and their possible impact on EU accession.Regional Input, Baltic States, social dimension, political dimension