Risk Assessment of Transitional Economies by Multivariate and Multicriteria Approaches

This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance) testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment.Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.Country-risk, Transition countries, Multivariate cluster analysis, PROMETHEE method.

TESTING CAPM MODEL ON THE EMERGING MARKETS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

The paper examines if the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is adequate for capital asset valuation on the Central and South-East European emerging securities markets using monthly stock returns for nine countries for the period of January 2006 to December 2010. Precisely, it is tested if beta, as the systematic risk measure, is valid on observed markets by analysing are high expected returns associated with high levels of risk, i.e. beta. Also, the efficiency of market indices of observed countries is examined

VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE OF CASH FLOWS INFORMATION AND COMPANY\u27S CHARACTERISTICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

This paper focuses on the voluntary disclosure of cash flows information of Croatian large companies whose shares are listed on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, with the aim to identify characteristics of companies that provide extensive disclosures. In order to conduct the research and test the likelihood that company publicly announces wealth of information about cash flows, three groups of company’s features are defined as variables: accounting data, capital market information and company’s qualitative characteristics. Verification of empirical evidence was provided through the sample of Croatian listed companies using logistic regression analysis. Obtained results indicate that despite the desire of the regulatory authorities that capital market investors receive all relevant information, companies voluntarily disclose information about cash flows very rarely. Those companies are young (i.e. their shares are listed on an organized securities market for a short time) and profitable, with growing net income and growing cash flow from operating activities and usually use indirect method for operating cash flow report. The provision of features of Croatian companies that voluntary disclose cash flow information can be found as contribution of our research, because this topic in a cases of macro-oriented accounting system economies, i.e. bank oriented economies with emerging capital market is still unexplored

VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE OF CASH FLOWS INFORMATION AND COMPANY\u27S CHARACTERISTICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

This paper focuses on the voluntary disclosure of cash flows information of Croatian large companies whose shares are listed on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, with the aim to identify characteristics of companies that provide extensive disclosures. In order to conduct the research and test the likelihood that company publicly announces wealth of information about cash flows, three groups of company’s features are defined as variables: accounting data, capital market information and company’s qualitative characteristics. Verification of empirical evidence was provided through the sample of Croatian listed companies using logistic regression analysis. Obtained results indicate that despite the desire of the regulatory authorities that capital market investors receive all relevant information, companies voluntarily disclose information about cash flows very rarely. Those companies are young (i.e. their shares are listed on an organized securities market for a short time) and profitable, with growing net income and growing cash flow from operating activities and usually use indirect method for operating cash flow report. The provision of features of Croatian companies that voluntary disclose cash flow information can be found as contribution of our research, because this topic in a cases of macro-oriented accounting system economies, i.e. bank oriented economies with emerging capital market is still unexplored

Obilježje računovodstvenih manipulacija u Hrvatskoj

Investors and other users of financial statements seek for the information that is less likely to be affected by possibilities of financial number games. Accounts manipulations have become an issue of critical importance in today’s capital markets and have been subject of many researches in several countries. However, their features in Croatia are still quite unexplored. In this paper a survey was made with auditors about most frequent areas of accounts manipulations in Croatia. The questionnaire was sent to 274 auditors, but only 54 of them filled it out correctly and return it back. After that, obtained results were compared with archival data extracted from auditor reports published in abbreviate prospects of listing public companies. Prospects of 238 companies listing on the Zagreb Stock Exchange and Varaždin Stock Exchange were reviewed, but only 136 or 57.14% of them provided all data necessary for the analysis. The evidence shows that accounting manipulations are very common praxis in Croatia, especially in area of depreciation policy, write-off of accounts receivable, asset impairments and long-term investments in financial instruments. Beside above mentioned items, auditors pointed out taxes, inventories, revenues, provisions and revalorization as very frequent areas of accounts manipulations.Svi korisnici financijskih izvještaja, a posebice ulagači u stalnoj su potrazi za informacijama koje su što manje podložne “igranju s brojevima”. U današnje vrijeme, računovodstvene manipulacije su postale važan problem na tržištima kapitala i stoga su predmet mnogih istraživanja u različitim zemljama. Međutim, njihova obilježja u Hrvatskoj su još uvijek nedovoljno istražena. U ovom radu su obrađeni rezultati ankete s revizorima o najčešćim područjima računovodstvenih manipulacija u Hrvatskoj. Upitnik je poslan na adrese 274 revizora, ali od vraćenih upitnika samo 54 su u potpunosti točno ispunjena. Nakon toga, rezultati dobiveni anketiranjem revizora su uspoređeni s povijesnim podacima izvedenim iz revizorskih izvješća objavljenih u skraćenim rospektima listanih poduzeća. Analiza povijesnih podataka obuhvatila je 238 poduzeća koja su listana na Zagrebačkoj burzi i na Varaždinskoj burzi, no samo je 136 (57,14%) pregledanih skraćenih prospekata sadržavalo sve podatke potrebne za analizu. Rezultati dobiveni u oba istraživanja pokazuju da su računovodstvene manipulacije vrlo učestala pojava u Hrvatskoj, posebno u područjima politike amortizacije, otpisa potraživanja, umanjenja vrijednosti dugotrajne imovine i dugoročnih ulaganja u financijske instrumente. Uz spomenuta područja, revizori su istaknuli poreze, zalihe, prihode, rezerviranja i revalorizaciju kao učestala područja računovodstvenih manipulacija

CVaR in Measuring Sector\u27s Risk on the Croatian Stock Exchange

Background: In this paper the well-known risk measurement method Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is applied to the Croatian stock market to estimate the risk for 8 sectors in Croatia. The method and an appropriate backtesting are applied to the sample of 29 stocks grouped into 8 sectors for the three different periods: the period of economic growth 2006-2007, the crisis period 2008-2009 and the post-crisis period 2013-2014, characterized by long-term economic stagnation in Croatia. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to estimate the risk of 8 sectors on the Croatian stock market in three different economic periods and to identify whether the sectors that are risky during the crisis period are the same sectors that are risky in the period of economic growth and economic stagnation. Methods/Approach: The Conditional Value-at-Risk method and an appropriate backtesting are applied. Results: Empirical findings indicate that sectors that are risky in the period of economic growth are not the same sectors that are risky during the period of economic crisis or stagnation. Conclusions: In all the three periods, the least risky sectors were Hotel-management, Tourism, Food, and Staples Retailing. The Construction sector in all the three periods was among the riskiest sectors

Utječe li produktivnost na profitabilnost poduzeća u industriji prerade mlijeka? Iskustva Slovenije, Hrvatske i Srbije

This paper provides insights into productivity in dairy processing companies in Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. The aim is to find out whether EBITDA per employee, as a measure of overall productivity as well as labour and capital productivity and their management positively affect company’s profitability. Literature review shows that this issue was relatively neglected, although increase in productivity is regarded as the most important factor in maintaining a competitive advantage in most developed countries. Results obtained show that comprehensive measure of productivity EBITDA per employee has statistically significant positive impact on company’s profitability, the same as productivity management components labour cost competitiveness and capital productivity.Ovaj rad pruža uvid u produktivnost poduzeća iz industrije prerade mlijeka u Sloveniji, Hrvatskoj i Srbiji, kako bi se utvrdilo postoji li pozitivan utjecaj ukupne produktivnosti, produktivnosti rada te produktivnosti kapitala na profitabilnost. Pregled dosadašnje literature pokazuje kako je ova problematika bila prilično zapostavljena, iako je povećanje produktivnosti i u najrazvijenijim zemljana naglašeno kao najznačajniji čimbenik u održavanju konkurentske prednosti. Istraživanjem je dokazan pozitivan utjecaj produktivnosti na profitabilnost, pri čemu je produktivnost mjerena sveobuhvatnom mjerom EBITDA po zaposlenom, te parcijalnim mjerama troškovna konkurentnost rada i kapitalna produktivnost

Non-structural approach to implied moments extraction

Moments of future prices and returns are not observable, but it is possible to measure them indirectly. A set of option prices with the same maturity but with different exercise prices are used to extract implied probability distribution of the underlying asset at the expiration date. The aim is to obtain market expectations from options and to investigate which non-structural model for estimating implied probability distribution gives the best fit. Nonstructural models assume that only dynamics in prices is known. Mixture of two log-normals (MLN), Edgeworth expansions and Shimko’s model (representatives of parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches respectively) are compared. Previous researches are inconclusive about the superiority of one approach over the others. This article contributes to finding which approach dominates. The best fit model is used to describe moments of the implied probability distribution. The sample covers one-year data for DAX index options. The results are compared through models and maturities. All models give better short-term forecasts. In pairwise comparison, MLN is superior to other approaches according to mean squared errors and DieboldMariano test in the observed period for DAX index options

MOTIVES FOR ASSET REVALUATION POLICY CHOICE IN CROATIA

The aim of this paper is to research managers’ motives of accounting policy choice for long-term nonfinancial assets. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) allow managers to choose between cost and revaluation model for measurement after recognition. The assumption is that manager’s decision is opportunistic so they use the revaluation model as a device to improve perceptive borrowing capacity of a company, and consequently, to reduce debt cost. Prior studies were mainly conducted in developed, marketoriented economies, unlike Croatia. The contribution of this paper is the research of motives and determinants of asset revaluation policy choice in bank-oriented economies with inactive markets. Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression was not used as a research method in this field of accounting in transition and emerging economies till now. Empirical evidence is provided through the sample of Croatian listed companies and the results show that large, profitable companies with low liquidity ratio, low cash flow ratio and increasing debt are more likely to perform upward revaluation