Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs

Use of temporally validated machine learning models to predict outcomes of percutaneous nephrolithotomy using data from the British Association of Urological Surgeons percutaneous nephrolithotomy audit

Background and objective: Machine learning (ML) is a subset of artificial intelligence that uses data to build algorithms to predict specific outcomes. Few ML studies have examined percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) outcomes. Our objective was to build, streamline, temporally validate, and use ML models for prediction of PCNL outcomes (intensive care admission, postoperative infection, transfusion, adjuvant treatment, postoperative complications, visceral injury, and stone-free status at follow-up) using a comprehensive national database (British Association of Urological Surgeons PCNL). Methods: This was an ML study using data from a prospective national database. Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), deep neural network (DNN), and logistic regression (LR) models were built for each outcome of interest using complete cases only, imputed, and oversampled and imputed/oversampled data sets. All validation was performed with complete cases only. Temporal validation was performed with 2019 data only. A second round used a composite of the most important 11 variables in each model to build the final model for inclusion in the shiny application. We report statistics for prognostic accuracy. Key findings and limitations: The database contains 12 810 patients. The final variables included were age, Charlson comorbidity index, preoperative haemoglobin, Guy’s stone score, stone location, size of outer sheath, preoperative midstream urine result, primary puncture site, preoperative dimercapto-succinic acid scan, stone size, and image guidance (https://endourology.shinyapps.io/PCNL_Demographics/). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve was >0.6 in all cases. Conclusions and clinical implications: This is the largest ML study on PCNL outcomes to date. The models are temporally valid and therefore can be implemented in clinical practice for patient-specific risk profiling. Further work will be conducted to externally validate the models. Patient summary: We applied artificial intelligence to data for patients who underwent a keyhole surgery to remove kidney stones and developed a model to predict outcomes for this procedure. Doctors could use this tool to advise patients about their risk of complications and the outcomes they can expect after this surgery

Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australian fisheries production, research organisations and assessment: shocks, responses and implications for decision support and resilience

Australia’s fisheries have experience in responding individually to specific shocks to stock levels (for example, marine heatwaves, floods) and markets (for example, global financial crisis, food safety access barriers). The COVID-19 pandemic was, however, novel in triggering a series of systemic shocks and disruptions to the activities and operating conditions for all Australia’s commercial fisheries sectors including those of the research agencies that provide the information needed for their sustainable management. While these disruptions have a single root cause—the public health impacts and containment responses to the COVID-19 pandemic—their transmission and effects have been varied. We examine both the impacts on Australian fisheries triggered by measures introduced by governments both internationally and domestically in response to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, and the countermeasures introduced to support continuity in fisheries and aquaculture production and supply chains. Impacts on fisheries production are identified by comparing annual and monthly catch data for Australia’s commercial fisheries in 2020 with averages for the last 4–5 years. We combine this with a survey of the short-term disruption to and impacts on research organisations engaged in fisheries monitoring and assessment and the adaptive measures they deployed. The dominant impact identified was triggered by containment measures both within Australia and in export receiving countries which led to loss of export markets and domestic dine-in markets for live or fresh seafood. The most heavily impact fisheries included lobster and abalone (exported live) and specific finfishes (exported fresh or sold live domestically), which experienced short-term reductions in both production and price. At the same time, improved prices and demand for seafood sold into domestic retail channels were observed. The impacts observed were both a function of the disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the countermeasures and support programs introduced by various national and state-level governments across Australia to at least partly mitigate negative impacts on harvesting activities and supply chains. These included protecting fisheries activities from specific restrictive COVID-19 containment measures, pro-actively re-establishing freight links, supporting quota roll-overs, and introducing wage and businesses support packages. Fisheries research organisations were impacted to various degrees, largely determined by the extent to which their field monitoring activities were protected from specific restrictive COVID-19 containment measures by their state-level governments. Responses of these organisations included reducing fisheries dependent and independent data collection as required while developing strategies to continue to provide assessment services, including opportunistic innovations to harvest data from new data sources. Observed short run impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has emphasised both the vulnerability of fisheries dependent on export markets, live or fresh markets, and long supply chains and the resilience of fisheries research programs. We suggest that further and more comprehensive analysis over a longer time period of the long-run impacts of subsequent waves of variants, extended pandemic containment measures, autonomous and planned adaptive responses would be beneficial for the development of more effective counter measures for when the next major external shock affects Australian fisheries

Funnel plots, performance variation and the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project 2003–2004

BACKGROUND: Clinical governance requires health care professionals to improve standards of care and has resulted in comparison of clinical performance data. The Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (a UK cardiology dataset) tabulates its performance. However funnel plots are the display method of choice for institutional comparison. We aimed to demonstrate that funnel plots may be derived from MINAP data and allow more meaningful interpretation of data. METHODS: We examined the attainment of National Service Framework standards for all hospitals (n = 230) and all patients (n = 99,133) in the MINAP database between 1(st )April 2003 and 31(st )March 2004. We generated funnel plots (with control limits at 3 sigma) of Door to Needle and Call to Needle thrombolysis times, and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers and statins post myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Only 87,427 patients fulfilled criteria for analysis of the use of secondary prevention drugs and 15,111 patients for analysis by Door to Needle and Call to Needle times (163 hospitals achieved the standards for Door to Needle times and 215 were within or above their control limits). One hundred and sixteen hospitals fell outside the 'within 25%' and 'more than 25%' standards for Call to Needle times, but 28 were below the lower control limits. Sixteen hospitals failed to reach the standards for aspirin usage post AMI and 24 remained below the lower control limits. Thirty hospitals were below the lower CL for beta-blocker usage and 49 outside the standard. Statin use was comparable. CONCLUSION: Funnel plots may be applied to a complex dataset and allow visual comparison of data derived from multiple health-care units. Variation is readily identified permitting units to appraise their practices so that effective quality improvement may take place

The effect of protective covers on pollinator health and pollination service delivery

Protective covers (i.e., glasshouses, netting enclosures, and polytunnels) are increasingly used in crop production to enhance crop quality, yield, and production efficiency. However, many protected crops require insect pollinators to achieve optimal pollination and there is no consensus about how best to manage pollinators and crop pollination in these environments. We conducted a systematic literature review to synthesise knowledge about the effect of protective covers on pollinator health and pollination services and identified 290 relevant studies. Bees were the dominant taxon used in protected systems (90%), represented by eusocial bees (e.g., bumble bees (Bombus spp.), honey bees (Apis spp.), stingless bees (Apidae: Meliponini)) and solitary bees (e.g., Amegilla spp., Megachile spp., and Osmia spp.). Flies represented 9% of taxa and included Calliphoridae, Muscidae, and Syrphidae. The remaining 1% of taxa was represented by Lepidoptera and Coleoptera. Of the studies that assessed pollination services, 96% indicate that pollinators were active on the crop and/or their visits resulted in improved fruit production compared with flowers not visited by insects (i.e., insect visits prevented, or flowers were self- or mechanically pollinated). Only 20% of studies evaluated pollinator health. Some taxa, such as mason or leafcutter bees, and bumble bees can function well in covered environments, but the effect of covers on pollinator health was negative in over 50% of the studies in which health was assessed. Negative effects included decreased reproduction, adult mortality, reduced forager activity, and increased disease prevalence. These effects may have occurred as a result of changes in temperature/humidity, light quality/quantity, pesticide exposure, and/or reduced access to food resources. Strategies reported to successfully enhance pollinator health and efficiency in covered systems include: careful selection of bee hive location to reduce heat stress and improve dispersal through the crop; increased floral diversity; deploying appropriate numbers of pollinators; and manipulation of flower physiology to increase attractiveness to pollinating insects. To improve and safeguard crop yields in pollinator dependent protected cropping systems, practitioners need to ensure that delivery of crop pollination services is compatible with suitable conditions for pollinator health

Personalized versus standardized dosing strategies for the treatment of childhood amblyopia: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Amblyopia is the commonest visual disorder of childhood in Western societies, affecting, predominantly, spatial visual function. Treatment typically requires a period of refractive correction (‘optical treatment’) followed by occlusion: covering the nonamblyopic eye with a fabric patch for varying daily durations. Recent studies have provided insight into the optimal amount of patching (‘dose’), leading to the adoption of standardized dosing strategies, which, though an advance on previous ad-hoc regimens, take little account of individual patient characteristics. This trial compares the effectiveness of a standardized dosing strategy (that is, a fixed daily occlusion dose based on disease severity) with a personalized dosing strategy (derived from known treatment dose-response functions), in which an initially prescribed occlusion dose is modulated, in a systematic manner, dependent on treatment compliance. Methods/design: A total of 120 children aged between 3 and 8 years of age diagnosed with amblyopia in association with either anisometropia or strabismus, or both, will be randomized to receive either a standardized or a personalized occlusion dose regimen. To avoid confounding by the known benefits of refractive correction, participants will not be randomized until they have completed an optical treatment phase. The primary study objective is to determine whether, at trial endpoint, participants receiving a personalized dosing strategy require fewer hours of occlusion than those in receipt of a standardized dosing strategy. Secondary objectives are to quantify the relationship between observed changes in visual acuity (logMAR, logarithm of the Minimum Angle of Resolution) with age, amblyopia type, and severity of amblyopic visual acuity deficit. Discussion: This is the first randomized controlled trial of occlusion therapy for amblyopia to compare a treatment arm representative of current best practice with an arm representative of an entirely novel treatment regimen based on statistical modelling of previous trial outcome data. Should the personalized dosing strategy demonstrate superiority over the standardized dosing strategy, then its adoption into routine practice could bring practical benefits in reducing the duration of treatment needed to achieve an optimal outcome

BVRI Light Curves for 29 Type Ia Supernovae

BVRI light curves are presented for 27 Type Ia supernovae discovered during the course of the Calan/Tololo Survey and for two other SNe Ia observed during the same period. Estimates of the maximum light magnitudes in the B, V, and I bands and the initial decline rate parameter m15(B) are also given.Comment: 17 pages, figures and tables are not included (contact first author if needed), to appear in the Astronomical Journa

Ulipristal acetate versus levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system for heavy menstrual bleeding (UCON) : a randomised controlled phase III trial

Acknowledgments This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership (grant 12/206/52). Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre grants to the Centre for Reproductive Health (CRH) (G1002033 and MR/N022556/1) are also gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, or Department of Health and Social Care. We thank our Collaborative Group (listed in the Supplementary Material) for their contribution to recruitment, randomisation and collection of data, and to our Trial Steering and Data Monitoring Committees (members listed in Supplementary Material).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Hsp90 orchestrates transcriptional regulation by Hsf1 and cell wall remodelling by MAPK signalling during thermal adaptation in a pathogenic yeast

Acknowledgments We thank Rebecca Shapiro for creating CaLC1819, CaLC1855 and CaLC1875, Gillian Milne for help with EM, Aaron Mitchell for generously providing the transposon insertion mutant library, Jesus Pla for generously providing the hog1 hst7 mutant, and Cathy Collins for technical assistance.Peer reviewedPublisher PD