Observing Muostakh Island disappear: erosion of a ground-ice-rich coast in response to summer warming and sea ice reduction on the East Siberian shelf

Observations of coastline retreat using contemporary very high resolution satellite and historical aerial imagery were compared to measurements of open water fractions and summer air temperatures. We analyzed seasonal and interannual variations of thawing-induced cliff top retreat (thermo-denudation) and marine abrasion (thermo-abrasion) on Muostakh Island in the southern central Laptev Sea. The island is composed of ground-ice-rich permafrost deposits of Ice Complex type that render it particularly susceptible to erosion along the coast, resulting in land loss. Based on topographic reference measurements during field campaigns, we generated digital elevation models using stereophotogrammetry, in order to block adjust and ortho-rectify aerial photographies from 1951 and GeoEye, QuickBird, WorldView-1, and WorldView-2 imagery from 2010 to 2012 for change detection. Coastline retreat for erosive segments ranged from −13 to −585 m and was −109 ± 81 m (–1.8 ± 1.3 m a−1) on average during the historical period. Current seasonal dynamics of cliff top retreat revealed rapid thermo-denudation rates of –10.2 ± 4.5 m a−1 in mid summer and –4.1 ± 2.0 m a−1 on average during the 2010–2012 observation period. Using sea ice concentration data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and air temperature time series from Tiksi, we calculated seasonal duration available for thermo-abrasion, expressed as open water days, and for thermo-denudation, based on thawing degree days. Geomorphometric analysis revealed that total ground ice content on Muostakh is made up of equal amounts of intrasedimentary and macro ground ice, while its vertical hourglass distribution provides favorable local preconditions for subsidence and the acceleration of coastal thermo-erosion under intensifying environmental forcings. Our results showed a~close relationship between mean summer air temperature and coastal thermo-erosion rates, in agreement with observations made for various permafrost coastlines different from East Siberian Ice Complex coasts elsewhere in the Arctic. Seasonality and recent interannual variations of coastline retreat rates suggest that the combination of macro ground ice distribution in the ground and changes in enviromental forcing generate a cyclicity in coastal thermo-erosion, that is currently increasing in frequency

Dynamics of Arctic Permafrost Coasts in the 21st Century

Climate warming is particularly pronounced in the Arctic with temperatures rising twice as much as in the rest of the world. It seems natural that this warming has profound effects on the speed of erosion of Arctic coasts, since the majority consists of permafrost, composed of unlithified material and hold together by ice. Permafrost stores approximately 1307 Gt of carbon, which is almost 60 % more than currently being contained in the atmosphere. Understanding the main drivers and dynamics of permafrost coastal erosion is of global relevance, especially since floods and erosion are both projected to intensify. However, the assessment of the impacts of climate warming on Arctic coasts is impaired by little data availability. We reviewed relevant scientific literature on changing dynamics of Arctic coast, potential drivers of these changes and the impacts on the human and natural environment. We provide a comprehensive overview over the state of the art and share our thoughts on how we envision potential pathways of future Arctic coastal research. We found that the overwhelming majority of all studied Arctic coasts is erosive and that in most cases erosion rates per year are increasing, threatening coastal settlements, infrastructure, cultural sites and archaeological remains. The impacts on the natural environment are also manifold and reach from changing sediment fluxes which limit light availability in the water column to a higher input of carbon and nutrients into the nearshore zone with the potential to influence food chains

Coastal Dynamics of the Pechora and Kara Seas Under Changing Climatic Conditions and Human Disturbances

Coastal dynamics monitoring on the key areas of oil and gas development at the Barents and Kara Seas has been carried out by Laboratory of Geoecology of the North at the Faculty of Geography (Lomonosov Moscow State University) together with Zubov State Oceanographic Institute (Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring) for more than 30 years. During this period, an up-to-date monitoring technology, which includes direct field observations, remote sensing and numerical methods, has been developed. The results of such investigations are analyzed on the example of the Ural coast of Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea. The dynamics of thermal-abrasion coasts are directly linked with climate and sea ice extent change. A description of how the wind-wave energy flux and the duration of the ice-free period affect the coastal line retreat is provided, along with a method of the wind-wave energy assessment and its results for the Kara Sea region. We have also evaluated the influence of local anthropogenic impacts on the dynamics of the Arctic coasts. As a result, methods of investigations necessary for obtaining the parameters required for the forecast of the retreat of thermoabrasional coasts have been developed

A pan-Arctic initiative on the spatial and temporal dynamics of Arctic coasts

Permafrost coasts make up roughly one third of all coasts worldwide. Their erosion leads to the release of previously locked organic carbon, changes in ecosystems and the destruction of cultural heritage, infrastructure and whole communities. Since rapid environmental changes lead to an intensification of Arctic coastal dynamics, it is of great importance to adequately quantify current and future coastal changes. However, the remoteness of the Arctic and scarcity of data limit our understanding of coastal dynamics at a pan-Arctic scale and prohibit us from getting a complete picture of the diversity of impacts on the human and natural environment. In a joint effort of the EU project NUNATARYUK and the NSF project PerCS-Net, we seek to close this knowledge gap by collecting and analyzing all accessible high-resolution shoreline position data for the Arctic coastline. These datasets include geographical coordinates combined with coastal positions derived from archived data, surveying data, air and space born remote sensing products, or LiDAR products. The compilation of this unique dataset will enable us to reach unprecedented data coverage and will allow us a first insight into the magnitude and trends of shoreline changes on a pan-Arctic scale with locally highly resolved temporal and spatial changes in shoreline dynamics. By comparing consistently derived shoreline change data from all over the Arctic we expect that the trajectory of coastal change in the Arctic becomes evident. A synthesis of some initial results will be presented in the 2020 Arctic Report Card on Arctic Coastal Dynamics. This initiative is an ongoing effort – new data contributions are welcome

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORCING OF WESTERN RUSSIAN ARCTIC COASTAL DYNAMICS: XX-CENTURY HISTORY AND CURRENT STATE

The Arctic coasts in permafrost regions are currently quickly retreating, being extremely vulnerable to the ongoing environmental changes. While the spatial variability of their retreat rates is determined by local geomorphological and cryolithological aspects, their temporal evolution is governed mainly by hydrometeorological factors, namely, wave action coupled to thermoabrasion (thermodenudation), are active during ice- free period. We define the combined wave and thermal action as “hydrometeorological stress”, and analyze its components and evolution, confirming it by known natural and remote sensing observations of coastal retreat rates. We estimated changes in the main hydrometeorological factors in the XX and XXI centuries for several sites on the coasts of the Kara andBarentsSeasbasing on observation and ERA reanalysis data. The term of hydrometeorological forcing is intended as an increment of the hydrometeorological stress, occurring because of changes of the hydrometeorological factors. Our results show that the current thermodenudation forcing amounts 15-50% of the 1979-1988 mean level and thermoabrasion forcing is equal to 35-130%. We detected 1989 (1993) – 1997 and 2005 – 2013 as periods of extreme hydrometeorological stress, as far as both thermodenudation and thermoabrasion were in a positive phase. It was also revealed that the hydrometeorological stress of the recent 10 years was apparently unprecedentedly high at the Barents-Kara region: the previous Arctic warming of the 1930-40s caused high thermoabrasion rates due to longer ice-free period despite cold summer temperatures, while, the latest ongoing warming shows previously unseen simultaneous increase in both thermodenudation and thermoabrasion

Observing Muostakh disappear: permafrost thaw subsidence and erosion of a ground-ice-rich island in response to arctic summer warming and sea ice reduction

Observations of coastline retreat using contemporary very high resolution satellite and historical aerial imagery were compared to measurements of open water fraction, summer air temperature, and wind. We analysed seasonal and interannual variations of thawing-induced cliff top retreat (thermo-denudation) and marine abrasion (thermo-abrasion) on Muostakh Island in the southern central Laptev Sea. Geomorphometric analysis revealed that total ground ice content on Muostakh is made up of equal amounts of intrasedimentary and macro ground ice and sums up to 87%, rendering the island particularly susceptible to erosion along the coast, resulting in land loss. Based on topographic reference measurements during field campaigns, we generated digital elevation models using stereophotogrammetry, in order to block-adjust and orthorectify aerial photographs from 1951 and GeoEye, QuickBird, WorldView-1, and WorldView-2 imagery from 2010 to 2013 for change detection. Using sea ice concentration data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and air temperature time series from nearby Tiksi, we calculated the seasonal duration available for thermo-abrasion, expressed as open water days, and for thermo-denudation, based on the number of days with positive mean daily temperatures. Seasonal dynamics of cliff top retreat revealed rapid thermo-denudation rates of −10.2 ± 4.5 m a−1 in mid-summer and thermo-abrasion rates along the coastline of −3.4 ± 2.7 m a−1 on average during the 2010–2013 observation period, currently almost twice as rapid as the mean rate of −1.8 ± 1.3 m a−1 since 1951. Our results showed a close relationship between mean summer air temperature and coastal thermo-erosion rates, in agreement with observations made for various permafrost coastlines different to the East Siberian Ice Complex coasts elsewhere in the Arctic. Seasonality of coastline retreat and interannual variations of environmental factors suggest that an increasing length of thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion process simultaneity favours greater coastal erosion. Coastal thermo-erosion has reduced the island's area by 0.9 km2 (24%) over the past 62 years but shrank its volume by 28 x 106 m3 (40%), not least because of permafrost thaw subsidence, with the most pronounced with rates of ≥− 11 cm a−1 on yedoma uplands near the island's rapidly eroding northern cape. Recent acceleration in both will halve Muostakh Island's lifetime to less than a century

Ice-Gouging Topography of the Exposed Aral Sea Bed

Ice gouging, or scouring, i.e., ice impact on the seabed, is a well-studied phenomenon in high-latitude seas. In the mid-latitudes, it remains one of the major geomorphic processes in freezing seas and large lakes. Research efforts concerning its patterns, drivers and intensity are scarce, and include aerial and geophysical studies of ice scours in the Northern Caspian Sea. This study aims to explain the origin of the recently discovered linear landforms on the exposed former Aral Sea bottom using remotely sensed data. We suggest that they are relict ice gouges, analogous to the modern ice scours of the Northern Caspian, Kara and other seas and lakes, previously studied by side scan sonar (SSS) surveys. Their average dimensions, from 3 to 90 m in width and from hundreds to thousands of meters in length, and spatial distribution were derived from satellite imagery interpretation and structure from motion-processing of UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) images. Ice scouring features are virtually omnipresent at certain seabed sections, evidencing high ice gouging intensity in mid-latitude climates. Their greatest density is observed in the central part of the former East Aral Sea. The majority of contemporary ice gouges appeared during the rapid Aral Sea level fall between 1980 and the mid-1990s. Since then, the lake has almost completely drained, providing a unique opportunity for direct studies of exposed ice gouges using both in situ and remote-sensing techniques. These data could add to our current understanding of the scales and drivers of ice impact on the bottom of shallow seas and lakes

Morphodynamic Types of the Laptev Sea Coast: A Review

The Laptev Sea coast has a unique high-latitude and dynamic landscape. The presence of low-temperature permafrost (below −7 °C) and its high ice content (up to 90%) determine a wide array of permafrost landforms and features. Under the actions of thermal abrasion and thermal denudation, high rates of coastal retreat are evident within this region. Local differences in the geological structure and sea hydrodynamic conditions determine the diversity of this sea coast’s types. In this review, we present the results of a morphodynamic classification and segmentation of the Laptev Sea coast. The integrated approach used in the classification took into account the leading relief-forming processes that act upon this coastal zone. The research scale of 1:100,000 made it possible to identify and characterize the morphologies of the coast and their spatial distributions within the study area. The presented original classification can be considered to be universal for the eastern Arctic seas of Eurasia; it may be used as a basis for further scientific and applied research

Accelerated coastal thermo-erosion activity in the Laptev Sea and its spatiotemporal differentiation

The intensity of thermo-erosion in the coastal zone of the Laptev Sea region mirrors the strong seasonality of exogenous hydro-meteorological conditions, mainly the presence or absence of sea ice and large temperature amplitudes. Permafrost, and in particular the widespread presence of syngenetic ground ice, both above and below sea level, constitute endogenous local conditions that make this coastline highly susceptible to currently observed warming and the associated extension of the open water season on the East Siberian arctic shelf. Although the general magnitude of erosion dynamics along Ice Complex coasts has been investigated, substantial information about local, regional, seasonal, and inter-annual variations still remain unknown. Monitoring capabilities could be increased by using the large areal coverage of historical records, accompanied by new acquisitions of contemporary high and very high resolution remote sensing data. Based on topographic reference measurements during field campaigns, we derived digital elevation models for subsequent orthorectification, in order to enable consistent distance and area measurements. A distinction was made between two related processes that work together, but with temporal and quantitative differences. Cliff top erosion (thermo-denudation) and cliff bottom erosion (thermo-abrasion) have different impacts on the volume of land loss and subsequent mass displacements. For a geographically broad baseline of well-distributed key areas, a proportional relationship of both processes on a multi-decadal long-term scale was observed, at site-specific average rates of -1.8 to -3.4 m/yr on Muostakh Island off the coast of Tiksi and along the continental coast of the Dmitriy Laptev Strait, respectively. However, short-term observations over the recent past revealed not only that erosion rates were 1.6 times more rapid on average, but also responded differently in terms of thermo-denudation and abrasion towards environmental forcings. This response was evaluated using the Normalized Difference Thermo-erosion Index (NDTI), whose value domain differentiates either marine or atmospherically driven erosion regimes, and may additionally indicate near-surface ground ice conditions. Seasonal observations on Muostakh, where the most rapid long-term rates of -9.6 m a-1 have been measured, revealed the existence of a thermo-erosional cycle, during which rates of either thermo-denudation or abrasion are overtaken by the respective opposite process. The frequency of this recurring pattern is also likely to have increased, at least since 2005, when the summer sea ice free period in the southern central Laptev Sea was above average and the sum of positive daily average surface air temperatures in Tiksi reached new all-time maxima. This is necessarily accompanied by larger short-term fluctuations of NDTI, causing coastal cliff morphologies to change more often, resulting in more effective volumetric erosion