Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering

The epidemiology of human papillomavirus infection in HIV-positive and HIV-negative high-risk women in Kigali, Rwanda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence, incidence and persistence of human papillomavirus (HPV) types in sub-Saharan Africa are not well established. The objectives of the current study are to describe (predictors of) the epidemiology of HPV among high-risk women in Kigali, Rwanda.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV-negative, high-risk women were seen quarterly for one year, and once in Year 2. HIV serostatus, clinical, and behavioral information were assessed at each visit, HPV types at Month 6 and Year 2, and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) at selected visits. HPV prevalence was also assessed in HIV-positive, high-risk women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Prevalence of any HPV was 47.0% in HIV-negative women (median age 25 years) compared to 72.2% in HIV-positive women (median age 27 years; OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.9-4.6). Among HIV-negative women, cumulative incidence of high-risk (HR)-HPV was 28.0% and persistence 32.0% after a mean period of 16.6 and 16.9 months, respectively. Prior <it>Chlamydia trachomatis </it>and <it>Neisseria gonorrhoeae </it>infection, concurrent low-risk (LR)-HPV infection and incident HSV-2 were associated with HR-HPV prevalence among HIV-negative women; prior <it>C. trachomatis </it>infection and co-infection with LR-HPV and HPV16-related HPV types with HR-HPV acquisition. HPV16-related types were the most prevalent and persistent.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>High HPV prevalence, incidence and persistence were found among high-risk women in Kigali. HPV52 had the highest incidence; and, together with HPV33 and HPV58, were strongly associated with acquisition of other HR-HPV types in HIV-negative women.</p