Population heterogeneity in vaccine coverage impacts epidemic thresholds and bifurcation dynamics

Population heterogeneity, especially in individuals' contact networks, plays an important role in transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. For vaccine-preventable diseases, outstanding issues like vaccine hesitancy and availability of vaccines further lead to nonuniform coverage among groups, not to mention the efficacy of vaccines and the mixing pattern varying from one group to another. As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic transitions to endemicity, it is of interest and significance to understand the impact of aforementioned population heterogeneity on the emergence and persistence of epidemics. Here we analyze epidemic thresholds and characterize bifurcation dynamics by accounting for heterogeneity caused by group-dependent characteristics, including vaccination rate and efficacy as well as disease transmissibility. Our analysis shows that increases in the difference in vaccination coverage among groups can render multiple equilibria of disease burden to exist even if the overall basic reproductive ratio is below one (also known as backward bifurcation). The presence of other heterogeneity factors such as differences in vaccine efficacy, transmission, mixing pattern, and group size can each exhibit subtle impacts on bifurcation. We find that heterogeneity in vaccine efficacy can undermine the condition for backward bifurcations whereas homophily tends to aggravate disease endemicity. Our results have practical implications for improving public health efforts by addressing the role of population heterogeneity in the spread and control of diseases.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Assessing the Contribution of Activated STAT1 and STAT3 on Survival and Resistance to Platinum-Based Chemotherapy and Radiation in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Cells

https://openworks.mdanderson.org/sumexp21/1241/thumbnail.jp

Wide bandgap semiconductor from a hidden 2D incommensurate graphene phase

Producing a usable semiconducting form of graphene has plagued the development of graphene electronics for nearly two decades. Now that new preparation methods have become available, graphene's intrinsic properties can be measured and the search for semiconducting graphene has begun to produce results. This is the case of the first graphene "buffer" layer grown on SiC(0001) presented in this work. We show, contrary to assumptions of the last forty years, that the buffer graphene layer is not commensurate with SiC. The new modulated structure we've found resolves a long standing contradiction where ab initio calculations expect a metallic buffer, while experimentally it is found to be a semiconductor. Model calculations using the new incommensurate structure show that the semiconducting $\pi$-band character of the buffer comes from partially hybridized graphene incommensurate boundaries surrounding unperturbed graphene islands.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, 47 references, supplemental material: 15 pages, 4 figure

A search for spectral hysteresis and energy-dependent time lags from X-ray and TeV gamma-ray observations of Mrk 421

Blazars are variable emitters across all wavelengths over a wide range of timescales, from months down to minutes. It is therefore essential to observe blazars simultaneously at different wavelengths, especially in the X-ray and gamma-ray bands, where the broadband spectral energy distributions usually peak. In this work, we report on three "target-of-opportunity" (ToO) observations of Mrk 421, one of the brightest TeV blazars, triggered by a strong flaring event at TeV energies in 2014. These observations feature long, continuous, and simultaneous exposures with XMM-Newton (covering X-ray and optical/ultraviolet bands) and VERITAS (covering TeV gamma-ray band), along with contemporaneous observations from other gamma-ray facilities (MAGIC and Fermi-LAT) and a number of radio and optical facilities. Although neither rapid flares nor significant X-ray/TeV correlation are detected, these observations reveal subtle changes in the X-ray spectrum of the source over the course of a few days. We search the simultaneous X-ray and TeV data for spectral hysteresis patterns and time delays, which could provide insight into the emission mechanisms and the source properties (e.g. the radius of the emitting region, the strength of the magnetic field, and related timescales). The observed broadband spectra are consistent with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. We find that the power spectral density distribution at $\gtrsim 4\times 10^{-4}$ Hz from the X-ray data can be described by a power-law model with an index value between 1.2 and 1.8, and do not find evidence for a steepening of the power spectral index (often associated with a characteristic length scale) compared to the previously reported values at lower frequencies.Comment: 45 pages, 15 figure

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

New Raffaelea species (Ophiostomatales) from the USA and Taiwan associated with ambrosia beetles and plant hosts

Raffaelea (Ophiostomatales) is a genus of more than 20 ophiostomatoid fungi commonly occurring in symbioses with wood-boring ambrosia beetles. We examined ambrosia beetles and plant hosts in the USA and Taiwan for the presence of these mycosymbionts and found 22 isolates representing known and undescribed lineages in Raffaelea. From 28S rDNA and β-tubulin sequences, we generated a molecular phylogeny of Ophiostomatales and observed morphological features of seven cultures representing undescribed lineages in Raffaelea s. lat. From these analyses, we describe five new species in Raffaelea s. lat.: R. aguacate, R. campbellii, R. crossotarsa, R. cyclorhipidia, and R. xyleborina spp. nov. Our analyses also identified two plantpathogenic species of Raffaelea associated with previously undocumented beetle hosts: (1) R. quercivora, the causative agent of Japanese oak wilt, from Cyclorhipidion ohnoi and Crossotarsus emancipatus in Taiwan, and (2) R. lauricola, the pathogen responsible for laurel wilt, from Ambrosiodmus lecontei in Florida. The results of this study show that Raffaelea and associated ophiostomatoid fungi have been poorly sampled and that future investigations on ambrosia beetle mycosymbionts should reveal a substantially increased diversity.The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service (FS)-SRS Coop agreement 14-CA-11330130-032, USDA-FS-FHP Coop agreement 12-CA-11420004-042, USDA Farm Bill agreement 12-8130-0377- CA, National Science Foundation grant DEB 1256968 and the Department of Science and Technology/ National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Tree Health Biotechnology (CTHB), South Africa.http://www.imafungus.orgam2017Forestry and Agricultural Biotechnology Institute (FABI)Microbiology and Plant Patholog

Astro2020 APC White Paper: The Early Career Perspective on the Coming Decade, Astrophysics Career Paths, and the Decadal Survey Process

In response to the need for the Astro2020 Decadal Survey to explicitly engage early career astronomers, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted the Early Career Astronomer and Astrophysicist Focus Session (ECFS) on October 8-9, 2018 under the auspices of Committee of Astronomy and Astrophysics. The meeting was attended by fifty six pre-tenure faculty, research scientists, postdoctoral scholars, and senior graduate students, as well as eight former decadal survey committee members, who acted as facilitators. The event was designed to educate early career astronomers about the decadal survey process, to solicit their feedback on the role that early career astronomers should play in Astro2020, and to provide a forum for the discussion of a wide range of topics regarding the astrophysics career path. This white paper presents highlights and themes that emerged during two days of discussion. In Section 1, we discuss concerns that emerged regarding the coming decade and the astrophysics career path, as well as specific recommendations from participants regarding how to address them. We have organized these concerns and suggestions into five broad themes. These include (sequentially): (1) adequately training astronomers in the statistical and computational techniques necessary in an era of "big data", (2) responses to the growth of collaborations and telescopes, (3) concerns about the adequacy of graduate and postdoctoral training, (4) the need for improvements in equity and inclusion in astronomy, and (5) smoothing and facilitating transitions between early career stages. Section 2 is focused on ideas regarding the decadal survey itself, including: incorporating early career voices, ensuring diverse input from a variety of stakeholders, and successfully and broadly disseminating the results of the survey