Characteristics of Land-Use Carbon Emissions and Carbon Balance Zoning in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan

How to identify variables for carbon reductions was considered as one of the most important research topics in related academic fields. In this study, the characteristics of landuse carbon emissions of the economic belt on the northern slope of Tianshan (NST) were tentatively investigated. Taking 12 cities in NST as the case study, land use carbon emissions and carbon intensities were estimated and analyzed based on the Landsat remote sensing image and socio-economic statistical data in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Moreover, Moran’s I model was applied to study spatial autocorrelation between carbon emissions and carbon intensities. Results show that (1) urban land and cropland were increased rapidly during the past three decades; (2) carbon emissions were increasing significantly, and the urban land was responsible for the majority of the carbon emission; (3) negative spatial correlations on both net carbon emissions and carbon intensities were obtained between 12 cities; and (4) based on carbon balance zoning analysis, NST could be divided into four different zones. The rising ratio of carbon emissions and intensities was significantly higher than urbanization expending speed. Results could provide references and useful insights into related arrangements of policies and attempts on carbon reduction for cities in NST

Ecological deficit mitigation in the Tianshan North Slope: network-driven spatial strategies for ecosystem service flows

While traditional ecosystem service flow models often emphasize supply-side quantification and lack dynamic transmission mechanisms, this study aims to address these limitations by developing a spatially explicit simulation framework that incorporates multi-level network interactions. Building on improved breakpoint and field strength models, we integrate hierarchical network structures and demand-side constraints to better reflect real-world flow capacities. Based on the spatiotemporal dynamics of water, carbon, and food resources, the framework enables computation of regional deficits, ecological service flows and budgets, with driving mechanisms further explored through the XGBoost-SHAP model. Key findings reveal: (1) From 2000 to 2020, ecosystem service supply–demand patterns in study area changed significantly. The carbon sequestration deficit expanded, exacerbating carbon sink insufficiency. Water yield shifted from surplus to deficit, intensifying water resource conflicts. In contrast, the food production supply–demand ratio grew by 76.65%, indicating stable agricultural productivity. (2) The core of ecological output decreased from three to two. Urumqi has shifted from being an output area to an input area. Localized flow variation rates exceeding 340%, signifying dynamic regional flow restructuring. (3) In 2000, the supply and demand of ecosystem services were mainly affected by DEM, precipitation, and population. By 2020, top-ranked SHAP values declined while lower-ranked ones increased, indicating a shift toward complex interactive mechanisms. The ecology of human settlements in low and medium altitudes has significantly improved, but the marginal effect has decreased. This study suggests optimizing cross-regional ecological compensation and gradient-based management to reduce ecological deficits and boost resilience, offering methodological support for coordinated ecological governance and sustainable urban development