Energy technology assessment

The aim of this paper seeks to introduce the basis of the energy economics models defined as a market equilibrium problems-mixed complementarily problem (MCP). This technique allows the integration of bottom-up programming models of the energy system into top-down general computable equilibrium models (CGE) of the overall economy. A complementarily scheme involves both primal and dual relationships, often doubling the number of equations and the scope of error. When the underlying optimization includes upper and lower bounds (many decision variables), the explicit treatment of associated income effects may become very complex. A convenient MCP formulation of both, top-down & bottom-up energy system models for energy policy analysis requires the uses of complementary methods to solve the economic equilibrium

Aproching optimal depletion path: Natural gas market in Bolivia

This exercise tries to be the first approach in order to understand the overall feedback effects of price path over optimal depletion rate in natural gas market in Bolivia. The simulations attempt to reproduce year-by-year evolution of natural gas depletion. While the initial conditions, parameters the model corresponds to exogenous measures in non linear optimal scheme. Therefore, the numerical values shown in the simulation should not be interpreted as forecasts. Some preliminary key result shows that: opportunity cost of depletion is high especially the first years; companies have low incentives to stop depletion or to be cost-efficient; the effective gas sales to regional markets is not enough yet; contract operation might regards in higher discount rate; exogenous commodity price bid up pressures depletion rate; companies hold expensive ratios of useless reserves related to possible market sales; it is not probable that price path converge with optimal depletion rate neither in short or long run and vice versa

Potential gains for Bolivia of the subscription of an association Agreement with the European Union

The liberalization trading has become a really important factor to determine both, the economic growth and the level of poverty in a country. It can be observed that in developed countries, international trading is essential, while in most of the developing countries do not get the same benefits. Although commercial openness could not raise the economic welfare in the same proportion in all of the countries where it was applied, it is still a model used in order to achieve development. The following paper looks for determining, theorically and empirically, the impacts of an Association Agreement with the European Union over the economy in general and the poverty levels. Then, a specific case is used, when talking about the impacts on the exports of quinoa and the benefits that the raise in the exports of this product can bring to the rural communities that produce it. The paper concludes that the only way to get the benefits of the Association Agreement with the European Union is to diversify the products that Bolivia exports and use more modern technology that can give the products a higher aggregate value.Economic Growth; Poverty; Export; Bolivia; European Union; Quinua; Added Value; diversification; Technology

Poverty, indigence and public investment in Bolivia: A simulation analysis

The study of the impact of public investment on poverty is currently of particular importance due to, among other factors, the commitments that several countries have acquired in the framework of the Millennium Development Goals and the current political situation which gives a more prominent role the government in the economy. We use a general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of public investment on income from various sectors of the economy. Subsequently, we use these results to impute income in the MECOVI 2007 survey. In this way, we calculate various measures of poverty and indigence, and analyze its evolution over time. The estimated measurements indicate that public investment has a positive effect in reducing poverty and indigence in Bolivia, however this effect is small. The most important results are evident in the headcount index that is reduced about 3 points in a scenario of high public investment and 2 points in a scenario like the current investment. However, the results for the poverty gap and severity of poverty and indigence are more modest

The climate change effects on the agricultural sector of Bolivia

Bolivia as many other countries in the world, it is looking for some mechanism that allows to fight against the adverse impacts produced by climate variability. There is consensus that more adaptation and mitigation measures if we want to reduce the adverse effects produced by the climate change - in addition the vulnerability to these phenomena depends also on other stress factors. The aim of our research seeks to evaluate the economic impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of Bolivia with and without mitigation measures. From one hand the work quantify the effect of climate change over the GDP - from the other hand it evaluates the relevance of mitigation measures destined to reduce the risk and vulnerability of climate change. There are many methodologies that evaluate the incidence of climate change, both from economic and technological perspective - the first one in well known as bottom-up schemes - the second one is named top-down schemes. For the purposes of our research we use top-down model, based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) techniques

El Vaivén Económico de Bolivia 2005 – 2010 y sus Perspectivas

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar el desempeño macroeconómico y en términos de reducción de la pobreza de la economía boliviana durante el último quinquenio. Podemos caracterizar este período por una bonanza económica, con precios inéditos para la exportación de materias primas – seguida por una fuerte crisis financiera a nivel mundial y un reciente episodio de recuperación económica. Con el propósito de evaluar estos efectos en el corto y mediano plazo, se utilizó un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC), recursivo y dinámico en un horizonte de diez años de planificación y a continuación sobre esta base se realizó un experimento de microsimulación en la encuesta MECOVI 2007. Mediante experimentos de simulación que se ajustan a estos vaivenes económicos, se evidencio i) que ante una salida de capital, la producción de la economía se reduce y se genera iliquidez en el sistema financiero ii) que una reducción de las remesas, afecta la producción y el consumo de bienes doméstico e importados iii) que un shock adverso en los TI tiene efectos negativos sobretodo a nivel del agregado de inversión – mientras que un shock positivo incrementa el PIB y gasto gubernamental y iv) que una política fiscal expansiva permite acercar a la economía a una trayectoria de crecimiento. Sobre la base de los resultados del MEGC se aplico un experimento de microsimulación. El ejercicio muestra que la inversión pública tiene un efecto positivo sobre la reducción de la pobreza en escenarios de inversión moderada, inversión actual e inversión alta. No obstante, la reducción de la pobreza no es muy significativa.Shock Externo; Crisis Económica; Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable; micro simulación; pobreza