Neural Network Models for Inflation Forecasting: An Appraisal

We assess the power of artificial neural network models as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rates for 28 OECD countries. For short out-of-sample forecasting horizons, we find that, on average, for 45% of the countries the ANN models were a superior predictor while the AR1 model performed better for 21%. Furthermore, arithmetic combinations of several ANN models can also serve as a credible tool for forecasting inflation.Artificial Neural Networks; Forecasting; Inflation

Can Risk Aversion in Firms Reduce Unemployment Persistence?

This paper contributes to the growing literature that attempts to explain unemployment persistence. We show that when the economy is struck by a negative transitory (or permanent) demand or supply shock, firms can find their way back quicker to the pre-shock (or new) employment levels if they are risk-averse. The reason is that risk aversion in firms creates a self-adjusting mechanism whereby cautious firms adjust hiring and wage-setting decisions to try to regain the pre-shock employment levels and minimize fluctuations in profits. Therefore, perhaps surprisingly, risk aversion in firms is seen as a stabilizing macroeconomic force that reduces unemployment inertia.Unemployment, Persistence, Risk Aversion

The 24/7 Society and Multiple Habits

We examine a model where households develop external habits by following norms and therefore have multiple habits in both consumption and labour supply. In doing so, they contribute to habit formation and hence pose an externality effect on others. Our findings are: first, that consumption and work habit (‘work ethic’) drive us towards a 24/7 society; both forms of habit increase the labour supply of households. Second, the two externalities involved in external habit work in opposite directions. For consumption, external habit is a negative externality as it reduces the utility of others in the economy. By contrast work ethic reduces the disutility and is therefore a positive externality. Third, as a result of our second finding, multiple habits can involve both a consumption tax and subsidy to correct for these externalities. Fourth, with plausible parameter values, the welfare consequences of multiple habits are far greater where there are long-run inefficiencies compared with only transitional inefficiency.Catching-up with the Joneses, Work Ethic, Savings, Output Inefficiency and Taxation

Habit Formation: Deep and Uncertain

We extend the Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (Review of Economic Studies, 2006) model of external deep-habits with the idea that some product varieties are more prone to habit formation than others. This s uncertainty in habit formation which affects firm's pricing. Provided that uncertainty is strong, a profound implication is that role of market frictions, such as habit formation, and its consequences for the dynamic variations in the markups can be reversed.

Happiness Inertia: Analytical Aspects of the Easterlin Paradox

Using a New-Keynesian flexi-price model with external habit formation in consumption and labor supply, we identify the channels underlying the Easterlin Paradox (or “Happiness Inertia”, its generalization). These include whether external habit formation is in “difference” or “ratio” form; the growth and convexity characteristics of non-pecuniary effects; and the nature of risk aversion. We show that the impact of labor habit formation on welfare can (unlike consumption) be positive or negative. The form of habit formation (rather than habit per se) is a key determinant of whether welfare functions reproduce happiness inertia; only when habit is modelled in ratio form, does this possibility open up. The model thus bridges the gap between theoretical models and social policy, pecuniary and non-pecuniary motives.Efficiency wage; Unemployment; Regional growth.

Connecting People

This paper presents a model in which firms invest on their customer-networks to maintain current and future profits. The model is used to illustrate how the costs of maintaining networks and uncertainties about the customer-networks reduce the importance of making investments on the customer-based. Empirical evidence provides support for the theory.Network costs, Uncertainty, Pricing

Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance

Weak governance adversely affects firm’s net worth and consequently the value of its collateral. This negative impact on the collateral reduces the external credit available for importing inputs constraining potential output. As a result, a stronger procyclical monetary policy stance is adopted for protecting the exchange rate and hence arresting the degradation in the collateral constraint.Collateral Constraints; Governance; Monetary Policy