Observation Impact over the Antarctic During the Concordiasi Field Campaign

The impact of observations on analysis uncertainty and forecast performance was investigated for Austral Spring 2010 over the Southern polar area for four different systems (NRL, GMAO, ECMWF and Meteo-France), at the time of the Concordiasi field experiment. The largest multi model variance in 500 hPa height analyses is found in the southern sub-Antarctic oceanic region, where there are strong atmospheric dynamics, rapid forecast error growth, and fewer upper air wind observation data to constrain the analyses. In terms of data impact the most important observation components are shown to be AMSU, IASI, AIRS, GPS-RO, radiosonde, surface and atmospheric motion vector observations. For sounding data, radiosondes and dropsondes, one can note a large impact of temperature at low levels and a large impact of wind at high levels. Observing system experiments using the Concordiasi dropsondes show a large impact of the observations over the Antarctic plateau extending to lower latitudes with the forecast range, with a large impact around 50 to 70deg South. These experiments indicate there is a potential benefit of better using radiance data over land and sea-ice and innovative atmospheric motion vectors obtained from a combination of various satellites to fill the current data gaps and improve NWP in this region

HyMeX: A 10-Year Multidisciplinary Program on the Mediterranean Water Cycle

Drobinski, P. ... et. al.-- 20 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, supplement material http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/suppl/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1HyMeX strives to improve our understanding of the Mediterranean water cycle, its variability from the weather-scale events to the seasonal and interannual scales, and its characteristics over one decade (2010–20), with a special focus on hydrometeorological extremes and the associated social and economic vulnerability of the Mediterranean territoriesHyMeX was developed by an international group of scientists and is currently funded by a large number of agencies. It has been the beneficiary of financial contributions from CNRS; Météo-France; CNES; IRSTEA; INRA; ANR; Collectivité Territoriale de Corse; KIT; CNR; Université de Toulouse; Grenoble Universités; EUMETSAT; EUMETNET; AEMet; Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont Ferrand; Université de la Méditerranée (Aix-Marseille II); Université Montpellier 2; CETEMPS; Italian Civil Protection Department; Université Paris- Sud 11; IGN; EPFL; NASA; New Mexico Tech; IFSTTAR; Mercator Ocean; NOAA; ENEA; TU Delft; CEA; ONERA; IMEDEA; SOCIB; ETH; MeteoCat; Consorzio LAMMA; IRD; National Observatory of Athens; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; CIMA; BRGM; Wageningen University and Research Center; Department of Geophysics, University of Zagreb; Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia; INGV; OGS; Maroc Météo; DHMZ; ARPA Piemonte; ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna; ARPA Calabria; ARPA Friuli Venezia Giulia; ARPA Liguria; ISPRA; University of Connecticut; Università degli Studi dell'Aquila; Università di Bologna; Università degli Studi di Torino; Università degli Studi della Basilicata; Università La Sapienza di Roma; Università degli Studi di Padova; Università del Salento; Universitat de Barcelona; Universitat de les Illes Balears; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha; Universidad Complutense de Madrid; MeteoSwiss; and DLR. It also received support from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (e.g., PERSEUS, CLIM-RUN)Peer reviewe

Winter Targeted Observing Periods during the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)

The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) held seven targeted observing periods (TOPs) during the 2022 austral winter to enhance atmospheric predictability over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The TOPs of 5–10-day duration each featured the release of additional radiosonde balloons, more than doubling the routine sounding program at the 24 participating stations run by 14 nations, together with process-oriented observations at selected sites. These extra sounding data are evaluated for their impact on forecast skill via data denial experiments with the goal of refining the observing system to improve numerical weather prediction for winter conditions. Extensive observations focusing on clouds and precipitation primarily during atmospheric river (AR) events are being applied to refine model microphysical parameterizations for the ubiquitous mixed-phase clouds that frequently impact coastal Antarctica. Process studies are being facilitated by high-time-resolution series of observations and forecast model output via the YOPP Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (YOPPsiteMIIP). Parallel investigations are broadening the scope and impact of the YOPP-SH winter TOPs. Studies of the Antarctic tourist industry’s use of weather services show the scope for much greater awareness of the availability of forecast products and the skill they exhibit. The Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) analysis of predictions of the sea ice growth period reveals that the forecast skill is superior to the sea ice retreat phase

Etude de l'optimisation d'un système d'observation adaptatif pour l'amélioration de la prévision des dépressions météorologiques

Forcasting severe cyclogenesis within numerical prediction systems remains a problematic issue even for short range forceasts (1 or 2 days). Observation targeting is designed to improve such cases and to cope with hard to predict situations. The predictability issue was among the scientific objectives of FASTEX which consisted in the first real-time test of such an observing strategy. Some additional observations were deployed over pre-computed sensitive areas (targets) that varied from day to day, according to the meteorological situation.The sensitive areas of FASTEX were computed using adjoint techniques. So those unstable structures account for the dynamical properties of the atmosphere. It has been shown however, that targeting efficiency strongly depends on the data assimilation system that will process the targeted observations. In order to cope with this efficiency problem, we developped an approach called the {\textquotedblleft}sensitivity to observations{\textquotedblright}. Its computation enables us to draw up sensitivity maps that take into account all of the observations to be used within a given data assimilation system.The formulation of the sensitivity to the observations is based on the adjoint of the assimilation operator. This linear computation combines forecast sensitivities using the adjoint forecast model and the influence of the adjoint of a variational data assimilation operator: it has been developped within a quasi-operational framework using the 3D-Var of ARPEGE (at Météo France).In a diagnostic context, the sensitivity to the observations can be used as a critical tool to analyze the deployments of the adaptive observations that were tested during FASTEX. This technique provides us with an insight into the complex interactions of the different types of observations (conventional and targeted, at least) that intervene in the data assimilation process. The sensitivity to the observations appears to be a powerful tool to diagnose how the targeted observations individually impact the subsequent forecast. We show a case study for FASTEX IOP17.This adjoint technique, when applied to the variational data assimilation process, is helpful to detect some unsuitable usage of the targeted data handled within such a process. We illustrate this kind of implementation on the IOP18 and isolate a few inconsitencies in the assimilation system that trigger spurious effects on the subsequent forecasts.However, real-time is the natural context of targeting techniques; so we adapted the adjoint approach to prognosticate some suitable adaptive deployments of observations. This prognostic usage addresses the complex issue of the optimization of the targeting techniques. But its complexity makes optimization an untracktable problem for the moment. We consequently focused on some sub-optimal sampling strategies as a first step towards this prime objective and to renew the adjoint targeting techniques of FASTEX. In a simulated prognostic context, we test a real-time feasible startegy by discriminating between proposed realistic deployments. To do so, we use a statistical measure of the quality of the subsequent forecasts.La prévision des cyclogenèses rapides par des modèles numériques reste un problème délicat, même à courte échéance (1-2 jours). Pour répondre à ce problème compté parmi les thèmes de recherche et objectifs scientifiques de la campagne FASTEX, le ciblage des observations doit améliorer la description de l'état initial des prévisions grâce au déploiement d'observations supplémentaires. La campagne FASTEX fut la première mise en £uvre expérimentale du ciblage au cours de laquelle les observations ciblées ont été déployées sur des zones géographiques dites sensibles calculées à l'avance.Les zones sensibles de FASTEX, calculées avec les techniques issues des modèles linéaire et adjoint d'un modèle de prévision numérique, prennent en compte les propriétés dynamiques de l'atmosphère. Cependant, l'efficacité du ciblage dépend beaucoup du système d'assimilation des données utilisé. Afin de reformuler une technique de ciblage utilisant le modèle adjoint, on a développé une approche dite de sensibilité aux observations. Ce calcul linéaire tient compte des caractéristiques de toutes les observations en présence et de la façon dont elles vont être assimilées. La formulation de la sensibilité d'un aspect de la prévision aux observations est basée sur le calcul de l'adjoint de l'opérateur d'assimilation auquel est combiné un calcul avec l'adjoint de la prévision. Cette technique a été développée dans un cadre quasi opérationnel avec l'algorithme 3D-Var d'ARPEGE. La sensibilité aux observations permet, dans un contexte diagnostique, d'étudier de façon critique les déploiements d'observations adaptatives effectués durant la campagne FASTEX. Sur l'exemple de la POI17, l'étude de l'interaction des différents types d'observations qui interviennent dans l'assimilation (données conventionnelles et données ciblées) met en évidence des mécanismes complexes. Ces résultats éclairent le fonctionnement de l'impact des observations ciblées dans le système d'assimilation-prévision, ainsi que l'importance des valeurs observées pour l'impact final d'un jeu d'observations, qui explique l'effet parfois décevant de certains vols de FASTEX.L'adjoint du système d'assimilation permet aussi de détecter des utilisations non optimales des observations ciblées dans le système 3D-Var. Le cas de la POI18 sert d'illustration pour une telle mise en £uvre de l'outil de la sensibilité aux observations. Cet outil révèle entre autres, la rusticité de la formulation des statistiques d'erreur de l'ébauche et d'observation modélisées pour ces données.Ces résultats ont permis de proposer une nouvelle approche du ciblage dans un cadre pronostique. Cette approche est basée sur une simulation de la réduction de la variance d'erreur de prévision dans une direction instable. Cette technique prend en compte à la fois la dynamique de l'atmosphère, le système d'assimilation et les erreurs dans les conditions initiales (au sens statistique). Cette étude tend à définir une approche optimale du ciblage au sens où celui-ci maximise l'efficacité des observations additionnelles utilisées sous des contraintes pré-définies. Même si la vaste question de l'optimisation du ciblage reste trop ardue avec les outils d'investigation actuels, différentes techniques sub-optimales ont été proposées.On a ainsi défini différentes stratégies de sélection de déploiements alternatifs qui ont été testées sur des situations de FASTEX. On montre ainsi la faisabilité de ces approches qui ouvrent la voie vers une formulation de techniques de ciblage plus optimales

Study of the impact of TSEN data in the assimilation of the global weather forecasting system of Météo-France

International audienceStratéole-2 is a French-American project led by the LMD (France) aiming at a better understanding of physical processes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in a climate perspective. This initiative collects in-situ data during several field campaigns with a constellation of about 20 scientifical equipped stratospheric balloons operated by the French Space Agency (CNES). The first campaign took place in late 2021. The balloons flew at either 18km or 20km asl. LMD produced real-time meteorological data of pressure, temperature and wind, as collected with the TSEN system for real-time assimilation in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Until very recently, these data were assimilated sub-optimally by exploiting them as commercial aircraft (or AMDAR) data. A balloon dedicated "observation operator" has been implemented in the ARPEGE 4D-Var Data Assimilation System at Météo-France. This operator (together with a balloon dedicated BUFR format) allows to better exploit the TSEN data. Numerical weather prediction experiments have been carried out, tuning the various parameters at hand to optimize the impact of these rare and very high value-added in-situ data. Observation error and error correlation management are some of these key elements. The results of these impact studies with TSEN dataset will be shown. But TSEN dataset is not the only one, as Stratéole-2 also provide many other, such a unique dataset of humidity soundings in the vicinity of the balloons or radio-occultation data, the latter being commonly assimilated in the NWP systems. The assessment of these data will be discussed

Variational bias correction for Mode-S aircraft derived winds

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Water Vapor Measurements by Mobile Raman Lidar Over The Mediterranean Sea in the Framework of HyMex: Application to Multi-Platform Validation of Moisture Profiles

The Water Aerosol Lidar (WALI) system, deployed for 14 weeks during 2012 & 2013 on the island of Menorca, provided the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment (HyMeX) with an opportunity to perform a multi-platform comparison on moisture retrievals at the timescales relevant for extreme precipitation events in the West Mediterranean basin. After calibration, the WALI lidar yields nighttime profiles of water vapor with ~7% accuracy from the ground up to 7 km, and daytime coverage of the lower layers, alongside common aerosol retrievals. It is used to characterize the water vapor profile product given by the IASI instrument on-board MetOp-B, and the fields simulated by the Météo-France AROME-WMED model and the open-source WRF model. IASI is found to be reliable above 1 km altitude, and the two models obtain similar high scores in the middle troposphere; WRF beneficiates from a more accurate modelling of the planetary boundary layer

Water Vapor Measurements by Mobile Raman Lidar Over The Mediterranean Sea in the Framework of HyMex: Application to Multi-Platform Validation of Moisture Profiles

The Water Aerosol Lidar (WALI) system, deployed for 14 weeks during 2012 & 2013 on the island of Menorca, provided the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment (HyMeX) with an opportunity to perform a multi-platform comparison on moisture retrievals at the timescales relevant for extreme precipitation events in the West Mediterranean basin. After calibration, the WALI lidar yields nighttime profiles of water vapor with ~7% accuracy from the ground up to 7 km, and daytime coverage of the lower layers, alongside common aerosol retrievals. It is used to characterize the water vapor profile product given by the IASI instrument on-board MetOp-B, and the fields simulated by the Météo-France AROME-WMED model and the open-source WRF model. IASI is found to be reliable above 1 km altitude, and the two models obtain similar high scores in the middle troposphere; WRF beneficiates from a more accurate modelling of the planetary boundary layer

Coherence between multi-instrument and multi-model atmospheric moisture retrievals and a ground-based Raman-lidar reference in the framework of the HyMeX SOP 1

International audienceThe Mediterranean area is one of the main climate change hot spot regions where the water cycle needs to be better understood in order to make progress on the predictability of high-impact weather events and their evolution with global change. Characterizing the water vapour variability across the Mediterranean basin at hourly to synoptic timescales is of paramount importance to advance knowledge on the life cycle of heavy precipitation events and improve forecast in numerical weather prediction models. However, such a characterization based on a single instrument or model remains elusive and a multi-instrument, multi-model approach is needed to properly apprehend the water vapour variability at the relevant timescales, especially over data scarce regions such as oceans and seas. This approach has been undertaken during the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment (HyMeX) in September and October 2012 during which part of observational effort has been established on Menorca to characterize the upwind marine low-level flow, essential to determine the strength, timing and precise location of the subsequent precipitation at the Mediterranean coastline. The ground-based Water vapor Raman Lidar (WALI), the airborne LEANDRE-2 DIAL water vapor lidar and boundary layer pressurized balloons were implemented during the first Special Observing Periods (SOP 1) and contributed to characterize water vapour variability in the vicinity of the Balearic Islands. Furthermore, analyses from regional and global numerical models (AROME-WMED, ECMWF and WRF) were also available over large domains encompassing part or the whole of the Western Mediterranean basin. We will present the comparisons of the water vapor mixing ratio profiles and water vapor integrated content derived from these different data sets and we will show that good agreements is found between them. This work is an essential step towards ensuring that the water vapour datasets (both measurements and simulations) acquired during the SOP 1 of HYMEX are consistent, self-coherent and can be used unambiguously in order to analyse the variability of the water vapour field over the Western Mediterranean Basin

The Strateole-2 long-duration balloon project in the deep tropics: benefiting from and improving weather forecasts?

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