Middle Eastern Crisis in the Evaluation of the Iranian Experts and Analytical Circles

This article touches upon the work of the expert and analytical centers of Islamic Republic of Iran. Special attention is paid to the Iranian expert researches dedicated to the Middle East. Author of the article gives an account of the Iranian analytical centers. According to the researches of M. Shuri author emphasizes aims and goals of the Iranian foreign policy in the Middle East and in other regions. Concept of the “Axis of Resistance” is descripted as basic in the Iranian Arab policy. Author underlines importance of the strategic partnership between Iran from one side and Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah Movement from the other side. Author realizes Iranian expert appreciation of role of the outside actors (United States, Europe, Russia, China) in the region and the Saudi-Iranian relations. Because of the fact that Iranian-Saudi regional rivalry is one of the key factors of the political situation in the region. According to evaluations of the Center of the Arabic researches both countries have to normalize bilateral relations. Though experts of the Center of the Strategic Studies and of the University of Tabatabai consider that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are responsible for activity of the extremeist and terrorist jihadi groups. The article also exposes views of the Iranian experts on possibilities of SCO and BRICS in the Middle East region

Geopolitical Dimensions of the Syrian Conflict

This article touches upon geopolitical dimension of the Syrian conflict. The authors consider in details regional subdivision of Syria and relations of Syrian regions with border countries. The authors of the article conclude that Arab nationalism as the Syrian state ideology and positioning of Syria as the center of Arab world were indispensable taking into account multiconfessional nature of Syria. Authors study the geostrategical doctrine of Hafez Asad (1970-2000) aimed to restore the territorial integrity of Syria (return of the Golan heights) and creation of Great Syria, bring to light reasons of the alliances of Syria with Soviet Union and Iran. The authors discover reasons of hostility toward Syria from such actors as United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. The hostile attitude of the US political elites toward the Syrian state can be explained by American intention to undermine strategic partnership between Syria and Iran. Enmity of Saudi hostility toward the Syrian regime began with the assassination of the Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri (2005). This action destroyed the political balance in Lebanon and was considered by the Saudis as a threat to their interests. Article contains analysis of the Syrian role in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. To opinion of the authors, Turkish involvement in the Syrian conflict began with the attempts of the regime’s change in this country and evolved to the defense of Turkish national interests from the Kurdish factor. The authors make some conclusions about the role of US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey in the Syrian conflicts. In the article it’s made some forecasts about the development of Syrian conflict. The authors especially predict possibility of disintegration of the Syrian state according to spheres of influence of the external actors involved to this conflict with Mediterranean coast, Homs and Damascus under the control of government, northern regions of the country under Kurdish control, Raqqa and Deir el Zor probably under Turkish control and the Southern Syria (Hawran) probably under Jordanian control