Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge, none of the epidemiological models currently used in phylogenetics can account for recovery rates and sampling rates dependent on the time elapsed since transmission. Here we introduce an epidemiological model where infectives leave the epidemic, either by recovery or sampling, after some random time which may follow an arbitrary distribution. We derive an expression for the likelihood of the phylogenetic tree of sampled infectives under our general epidemiological model. The analytic concept developed in this paper will facilitate inference of past epidemiological dynamics and provide an analytical framework for performing very efficient simulations of phylogenetic trees under our model. The main idea of our analytic study is that the non-Markovian epidemiological model giving rise to phylogenetic trees growing vertically as time goes by, can be represented by a Markovian "coalescent point process" growing horizontally by the sequential addition of pairs of coalescence and sampling times. As examples, we discuss two special cases of our general model, namely an application to influenza and an application to HIV. Though phrased in epidemiological terms, our framework can also be used for instance to fit macroevolutionary models to phylogenies of extant and extinct species, accounting for general species lifetime distributions.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figure

Regulatory structure and risk and infrastructure firms : an international comparison

Evidence about how choice of regulatory regimes affects the level of shareholder risk for the regulated company has traditionally focused on studies in the United Kingdom and the United States. Broad comparisons of price-cap based regimes (as practiced in the UK) with rate-of-return regulation (as practiced in the US) show price-cap based regimes to be associated with higher levels of shareholder risk (as measured by the beta value) than rate-of-return regulation is. But so few countries were compared that it was suspected that other factors could be at work. The authors broaden the investigation by studying more countries (including regulated utilities in Canada, Europe,, and Latin America), doing a sectoral comparison to control for some risks related to factors other than the regulatory regime, and use narrower classifications for the regulatory regime. They also look at such recent evidence as the move from relatively pure price caps in the UK electricity sector to a mixed-revenue/price-cap based system. The authors find results aligned with earlier research, namely that investors bear the greatest nondiversifiable risk with price caps and the least nondiversifiable risk with rate-of-return regulation.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Financial Intermediation

Coping with Sickle Cell Disease Using Cognitive Behavior Therapy

This project focused on identifying the best evidence available on the use of cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for pediatric patients and families with sickle cell disease (SCD) to improve their coping skills with pain management. This resulted from an identified gap in nursing practice regarding psychosocial support for this subset of hospitalized pediatric patients. The practice-focused question was whether there was evidence in the literature on the use of CBT techniques to improve parental coping skills with children who have chronic and life-threatening illness that could be utilized with sickle cell disease. The theory of stress and coping guided the underpinnings of the study process. The Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence-based practice model (JHNEBP) was the framework for this project. A systematic review was conducted utilizing research-based articles from the major healthcare databases. The original search resulted in over 12,000 articles. This pool was further refined based upon a link between the pediatric population with chronic or life-threatening conditions and family coping skills. This was further narrowed down based on the use of social-cognitive therapy and coping skills. This process resulted in 6 research articles on the use of CBT with the target population. An evaluation of these studies found evidence that CBT can improve parental coping skills. Nursing support for parental coping with SCD has the positive social impact of decreased parental stress and improved quality of life for both the child and the family unit

Music, myth and the pursuit of meaning in Moulin Rouge!

No abstract availabl

The Functional Approach To The Teaching Of English Grammar In The Seventh Grade, Douglass Junior High School San Antonio, Texas, 1953

PUPIL NEEDS IN THE SEVENTH GRADE, DOUGLASS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL The problem of facing a new situation in transferring from elementary school to junior high school is, in all probability, an immense one for the pupil. For most children entrance into junior high school means a change in school environment. This change is not merely in physical environment; the academic pattern is different, and the social setting changes and expands. Frequently pupils in one junior high school are drawn from several elementary schools. They are in consequence faced with the necessity of forming new friendships and associations, of meeting new problems of personal adjustment, acquiring status among strangers, achieving security and satisfaction in a more complex world. At the same time, the school* s program calls for greater independence, often through variety and consequent choice of activities, frequently by a greater distance of the school from pupils\u27 homes. Hie magnitude of the problem of adjustment for the students is hardly less in size for the teacher. Particularly does this seem to be true for the writer in her teaching experiences. Each new group of pupils presents a challenge; produces fear of her being unable to satisfy their needs in the light of community and school expectations, and provokes within her a new determination to succeed in her responsibility to help the beginning seventh-grade students to appreciate their English-class experience

Therapist Orientation and Circularity-Linearity of Causality, Responsibility, Intentionality, and Blame for Clinical Problems

Differences in circularity of attributions of causality, responsibility, intentionality and blame for clinical problems by therapists of psychodynamic, behavioral and systems orientations, a psychiatrist group, and an attorney control group were investigated using the Circularity-Linearity Attribution Scale (CLAS). Respondents\u27 judgments about the sufficiency of a single cause for the problem, circular conceptualization of the problem, and linear conceptualization of the presented problems were also solicited. Responses were compared for two problems, schizophrenia and domestic violence. It was hypothesized that the systems-oriented therapists\u27 attributions would be more circular than those of other therapist groups on all dependent variables. It was also hypothesized that there would be an interaction between professional group and problem type, with systems therapists making relatively more circular attributions of causality across problems, and psychiatrists making relatively more linear attributions of causality for schizophrenia than for domestic violence. Circularity-Linearity Attribution scores for the groups were analyzed using a series of non-parametric statistical tests because the data did not meet assumptions for significant differences were found between attributions for the two problems by the total sample with domestic violence ranked more circularly on attributions of causality and sufficiency of a single cause, and domestic violence ranked more linearly on attributions of moral responsibility and blame. When attributions were analyzed within groups for the two problems, attorneys attributed moral responsibility and blame more linearly for domestic violence. A significant difference was found between males and females in the psychodynamic therapist group on one dependent variable. On circular conceptualization of the problem, the female psychodynamic therapists rated the schizophrenia problem as better represented by the circular conceptualization diagram than the males in that group. Limitations of the study were cited. Results were discussed in terms of implications for systems theory and utility of the CLAS

C-blox: A Scalable and Consistent TSDF-based Dense Mapping Approach

In many applications, maintaining a consistent dense map of the environment is key to enabling robotic platforms to perform higher level decision making. Several works have addressed the challenge of creating precise dense 3D maps from visual sensors providing depth information. However, during operation over longer missions, reconstructions can easily become inconsistent due to accumulated camera tracking error and delayed loop closure. Without explicitly addressing the problem of map consistency, recovery from such distortions tends to be difficult. We present a novel system for dense 3D mapping which addresses the challenge of building consistent maps while dealing with scalability. Central to our approach is the representation of the environment as a collection of overlapping TSDF subvolumes. These subvolumes are localized through feature-based camera tracking and bundle adjustment. Our main contribution is a pipeline for identifying stable regions in the map, and to fuse the contributing subvolumes. This approach allows us to reduce map growth while still maintaining consistency. We demonstrate the proposed system on a publicly available dataset and simulation engine, and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach for building consistent and scalable maps. Finally we demonstrate our approach running in real-time on-board a lightweight MAV.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, conferenc

Bringing computation into the classroom

The use of computation in the physics classroom has the potential to revolutionise the teaching of many topics in the Physics curriculum. By allowing teachers to move beyond problems that can be solved by hand in the limited time available in a lecture, students can be given a much more authentic experience of the topic. With carefully scaffolded tasks, either in a lecture or in a dedicated computational lab, students can explore a much wider range of problems, in a more meaningful way. We will discuss our experience of using computational physics at Sydney, with emphasis on how to think about introducing it into your own teaching. We will discuss the types of problems that can be tackled, which tools to use, and how to deal with students with different background experience. Participants are asked to install the Anaconda python distribution before the workshop https://www.anaconda.com/products/distribution and bring along suggestions for parts of the curriculum you would be interested in exploring. Intended Audience: University physics educator