Population Dynamics of Globally Coupled Degrade-and-Fire Oscillators

This paper reports the analysis of the dynamics of a model of pulse-coupled oscillators with global inhibitory coupling. The model is inspired by experiments on colonies of bacteria-embedded synthetic genetic circuits. The total population can be either of finite (arbitrary) size or infinite, and is represented by a one-dimensional profile. Profiles can be discontinuous, possibly with infinitely many jumps. Their time evolution is governed by a singular differential equation. We address the corresponding initial value problem and characterize the dynamics' main features. In particular, we prove that trajectory behaviors are asymptotically periodic, with period only depending on the profile (and on the model parameters). A criterion is obtained for the existence of the corresponding periodic orbits, which reveals the existence of a sharp transition as the coupling parameter is increased. The transition separates a regime where any profile can be obtained in the limit of large times, to a situation where only trajectories with sufficiently large groups of synchronized oscillators perdure

Measuring the Taylor rule's performance

Using a recently developed econometric technique to determine how the original Taylor rule and subsequent variations perform using different measures of inflation, output and unemployment. We found that the rule remains relevant today, despite the changes wrought by globalization, financial market innovations and technological advances.

Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?

This paper looks at the term-structure literature to identify early signs predicting recessionary patterns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) recession dates, we define the probability of recession as a function of the traditional yield spread, plus a forward-looking measure of growth expectations, namely the output gap growth spread. For other countries, we extend the model and make it additionally dependent on the probability of recession in the U.S. Our results indicate that most of the a-posteriori official recession dates could have been forecast as early as April 2009, when the first green shoots of recovery appeared in the U.S. data. Overall, the term-structure versions we apply allow us to signal recessions earlier and more accurately than traditional term-structure models and most professional forecasters.Forecasting ; Macroeconomics - Econometric models ; International finance

Globalization and the changing nature of the U.S. economy's influence in the world

Global economic integration may have made other countries more dependent on each other and weakened their initial responses to U.S. economic fluctuations.Globalization ; Economic conditions - United States ; International trade ; Financial crises

The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications

We look at how well several alternative Taylor rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions in real time, using the newly developed Giacomini and Rossi (2007) test for non-nested model selection in the presence of (possible) parameter instability. Further, we isolate those Taylor rule features that are most important for achieving relatively strong real-time performance. A second-order partial adjustment version of the Koenig (2004a) model performs consistently better than alternative specifications. Key features of this rule are the partial adjustment of the federal funds rate toward an equilibrium rate that depends on the unemployment rate and forward-looking inflation measures.Taylor's rule ; Real-time data ; Monetary policy - United States ; Forecasting

Restoring Trust and Building Integrity in Government: Issues and Concerns in the Philippines and Areas for Reform

In most general terms this article addresses the issue of the continuing decline of trust in government and the imperatives for reform. The decline on trust in government has been brought about by many factors including the inefficient and ineffective delivery of services, waste of public resources, graft and corruption, lack of integrity in government, poor leadership, excessive red tape, ineffective reorganization and structural changes, too much centralization, among other things. In summary, unresponsive governance has been responsible for the continuing decline of trust in government. The article introduces a framework of areas of reform imperatives with the general objective of restoring trust in government. These areas include the following: (1) reforms in institutions and structures, including reforms in organizations, processes and procedures; (2) reforms in mindsets, paradigms and behavior; (3) reforms in leadership at various levels; and (4) reforms among citizens, i.e., citizen engagement and/or citizen participation. We begin by reviewing various examples in the Philippines including continuing efforts to address graft and corruption, red tape, and inefficiencies in the government’s politico-administrative environment

Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education during and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Need, Transition and Transformation

The aim of this article focuses on the achievements and challenges of the application of AI (artificial intelligence) based technologies in the field of higher education. Articles on AI-based technologies and their relationship with higher education have been collected from databases such as WOS, Scopus, ProQuest, Ebsco and PudMed. It oriented the analysis to provide the various contributions about technologies, methodologies, processes and learning contexts based on AI that have been emerging during the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the university context. This article focuses on the achievements and challenges of the application of AI based technologies in the field of higher education, and we provide a series of relevant data, examples and explicit studies on the titanic potential of AI in its adaptation to higher education, emphasising crucial aspects of the application of new technologies and their aspects in the current scenario