Tiered social distancing policies and epidemic control

International audienceTiered social distancing policies have been adopted by many governments to mitigate the harmful consequences of COVID-19. Such policies have a number of well-established features i.e., they are short-term, adaptive (to the changing epidemiological conditions), and based on a multiplicity of indicators of the prevailing epidemic activity. Here, we use ideas from Behavioural Epidemiology to represent tiered policies in an SEIRS model by using a composite information index including multiple indicators of current and past epidemic activity mimicking those used by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as transmission intensity, infection incidence and hospitals' occupancy. In its turn, the dynamics of the information index is assumed to endogenously inform the governmental social distancing interventions. The resulting model is described by a hereditary system showing a noteworthy property i.e., a dependency of the endemic levels of epidemiological variables from initial conditions. This is a consequence of the need to normalise the different indicators to pool them into a single index. Simulations suggest a rich spectrum of possible results. These include policy suggestions and identify pitfalls and undesired outcomes, such as a worsening of epidemic control, that can arise following such types of approaches to epidemic responses

Uncoordinated Human behaviour and implications for public policy: from health to societal challenges

In questa tesi si propone una cascata di modelli semplici di teoria dei giochi per discutere in maniera complessiva le differenti interazioni che stanno impedendo la transizione ad un percorso globale di sostenibilità. Queste interazioni strategiche spaziano da giochi fra soli consumatori e/o produttori a giochi fra agenti privati e lo Stato, per concludere infine con un gioco fra più Stati, ciascuno affiancato dai produttori e consumatori domestici. Le soluzioni dei vari giochi si riflettono quasi tutte nella manifestazione del "Dilemma del Prigioniero"

Tiered social distancing policies and epidemic control

International audienceTiered social distancing policies have been adopted by many governments to mitigate the harmful consequences of COVID-19. Such policies have a number of well-established features i.e., they are short-term, adaptive (to the changing epidemiological conditions), and based on a multiplicity of indicators of the prevailing epidemic activity. Here, we use ideas from Behavioural Epidemiology to represent tiered policies in an SEIRS model by using a composite information index including multiple indicators of current and past epidemic activity mimicking those used by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as transmission intensity, infection incidence and hospitals' occupancy. In its turn, the dynamics of the information index is assumed to endogenously inform the governmental social distancing interventions. The resulting model is described by a hereditary system showing a noteworthy property i.e., a dependency of the endemic levels of epidemiological variables from initial conditions. This is a consequence of the need to normalise the different indicators to pool them into a single index. Simulations suggest a rich spectrum of possible results. These include policy suggestions and identify pitfalls and undesired outcomes, such as a worsening of epidemic control, that can arise following such types of approaches to epidemic responses

Behavioural Epidemiology of infectious diseases: going beyond its limits: why not?

The spread and control of current Covid19 pandemic are much better modellable and understandable by adopting the paradigm of the behavioral epidemiology of infectious diseases (BEID): social distancing; public health authorities interventions, acceptance of the forthcoming vaccines, rational vs irrational behaviors, negationism etc [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. However, even BEID has learned a lot from what we know of current pandemic [7]. The first and main lesson we have learnt is that we must go well beyond the current limits of BEID. Namely (non exhaustive list!!!)

Tiered social distancing policies and epidemic control

Tiered social distancing policies have been adopted by many governments to mitigate the harmful consequences of COVID-19. Such policies have a number of well-established features, i.e. they are short-term, adaptive (to the changing epidemiological conditions), and based on a multiplicity of indicators of the prevailing epidemic activity. Here, we use ideas from Behavioural Epidemiology to represent tiered policies in an SEIRS model by using a composite information index including multiple indicators of current and past epidemic activity mimicking those used by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as transmission intensity, infection incidence and hospitals' occupancy. In its turn, the dynamics of the information index is assumed to endogenously inform the governmental social distancing interventions. The resulting model is described by a hereditary system showing a noteworthy property, i.e. a dependency of the endemic levels of epidemiological variables from initial conditions. This is a consequence of the need to normalize the different indicators to pool them into a single index. Simulations suggest a rich spectrum of possible results. These include policy suggestions and identify pitfalls and undesired outcomes, such as a worsening of epidemic control, that can arise following such types of approaches to epidemic responses