Internal financial constraints, external financial constraints, and investment choice: Evidence from a panel of UK firms

This paper uses a panel of 24184 UK firms over the period 1993-2003 to study the extent to which the sensitivity of investment to cash flow differs at firms facing different levels of internal and external financial constraints. Our results suggest that when the sample is split on the basis of the level of internal funds available to the firms, the relationship between investment and cash flow is U-shaped. On the other hand, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow tends to increase monotonically with the degree of external financial constraints faced by firms. Combining the internal with the external financial constraints, we find that the dependence of investment on cash flow is strongest for those externally financially constrained firms that have a relatively high level of internal funds.Investment; Cash flow; Financial constraints; Error-correction models.

Inventory Investment, Global Engagement, and Financial Constraints in the UK: Evidence from Micro Data

We use a panel of 9381 UK firms to study the links between firms’ global engagement status and their financial health. We estimate inventory investment equations augmented with a financial composition variable, and interpret the sensitivity of inventory investment to the latter as a measure of the strength of the financial constraints faced by firms. We find that smaller, younger, and more risky firms; and firms that do not export and are not foreign owned exhibit higher sensitivities. Moreover, global engagement substantially reduces the sensitivities displayed by the former categories of firms: this suggests that it shields firms from financial constraints.Financial constraints, Global engagement, Inventory investment.

Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)

Cummins et al. (2006) construct a new measure of fundamentals, and show that the positive cash flow effects typically found in investment-Q models disappear when traditional Q is replaced with their new measure. Their results are not robust to small changes in their specification or in the dataset used to estimate their model. The explanatory power of cash flow does not disappear when replacing traditional Q with their new measure of Q it is never there to begin with. Investment's lack of sensitivity to cash flow may be because their data is biased towards firms with positive cash flow (it is negative for only 242 observations of 11431). This bias and our results mute their argument that the positive cash-flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints.

Does the Investment Opportunities Bias Affect the Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities of Unlisted SMEs?

Using a panel of 5,999 small and medium-sized Belgian enterprises (SMEs) over the period 2002-2008, we identify three measures of investment opportunities suitable for unlisted firms. We then estimate firm-varying investment-cash flow sensitivities (ICFS) from reduced-form investment equations that include these measures, and compare them with those derived from a model that does not control for investment opportunities. We find that all our models yield similar ICFS estimates, which are significantly related to a wide set of proxies for financing constraints. These findings suggest that the ICFS of SMEs do not simply reflect investment opportunities. The investment opportunities bias may therefore have been overstated in previous literature.Financing constraints, Firm-varying investment-cash flow sensitivities, Investment opportunities, Gross added value.

Inequality and Industrialization

Why do some countries industrialize later than others? Recent literature suggests that the prime reason is low agricultural productivity. This paper argues that the initial inequality of human capital could also be a contributing factor to the delayed process of industrialization characterizing some countries. We develop a neo-classical growth model which predicts that countries with a greater initial knowledge gap between rich and poor agents industrialize slowly, and that human capital inequality, although declining, tends to be persistent. Our cross-country data lend support to these predictions.

Voluntary Contributions to Personal Pension Plans: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

In this paper, we use data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the years 1992 to 1998 to study the determinants of saving in the form of voluntary contributions to personal pension plans (PPPs). We first estimate a probit model with selection for the probability of making these voluntary contributions. We then estimate a random-effects tobit regression for the amounts contributed and compare the results with those of a similar regression for conventional saving. Our findings suggest that voluntary contributions to PPPs are made essentially for retirement purposes, whereas conventional saving is undertaken for precautionary motives. The former type of saving is thus unlikely to offset the latter completely.

To what extent are savings-cash flow sensitivities informative to test for capital market imperfections?

We construct a simple model with lumpy investment, cash accumulation and costly external finance. Based on this model, we propose a new savings specification aimed at examining savings behavior in the presence of investment lumpiness and financial constraints. We then test a key prediction of our model, namely, that under costly external finance, savings-cash flow sensitivities vary significantly by investment regime. We make use of a panel of firms from transition and developed economies to estimate the new savings regression which controls for investment spikes and periods of inactivity. Our findings confirm the validity of the model's prediction

The Dynamics of Moonlighting: What is happening in the Russian informal economy?

This paper uses rounds 5 to 8 of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting of working-age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory, and is generally associated with career shifts. Those respondents who expressed a desire to switch jobs in the past are in fact more likely to moonlight in the present, and to effectively switch jobs in the future. The career shifts tend to be towards self-employed activities. These results imply that the Russian secondary labour market, as part of the informal economy, can provide long-term benefits for the economy as an effective incubator for setting up new self-employed businesses.moonlighting; informal economy; labour supply

Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)

Cummins et al. (2006) construct a new measure of fundamentals, and show that the positive cash flow effects typically found in investment-Q models disappear when traditional Q is replaced with their new measure. Their results are not robust to small changes in their specification or in the dataset used to estimate their model. The explanatory power of cash flow does not disappear when replacing traditional Q with their new measure of Q; it is never there to begin with. Investment’s lack of sensitivity to cash flow may be because their data is biased towards firms with positive cash flow (it is negative for only 242 observations of 11431). This bias and our results mute their argument that the positive cash-flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints.Investment, Cash flow, Financial constraints.