Design, Economic Competitiveness, and Profitability of a 2025 LNG Fueled Turboprop for the LNG Air Transportation System

This paper describes the technical characteristics, lifecycle emissions and economic competitiveness of a hypothetical liquid natural gas (LNG) powered turboprop when introduced into a market place with both existing turboprops and potential competitive responses between 2025 and 2030. Natural gas possesses vast potential to reduce emissions and improve operating costs in commercial aviation because it is cheaper and cleaner than jet fuel. The results show that LNG turboprop can completely robustly against current turboprops (ATR-72 and Bombardier Q400), the competitive responses of stretched derivative of the Q400 to 90 seats, and against discounted used version of current turboprops. Specifically, the LNG turboprop can achieve between a 9% and 15% operating cost advantage compared to current turboprops, 4.9%-8.9% against a stretch of the Q400 turboprop, and, a 3%-11% advantage against existing turboprops sold or leased at steep discounts. The program is shown to be profitable and yield a positive internal rate of return on invested capital between 9% and 17% if market share levels between 47% and 75% are achieved