Machine-learning-based calving prediction from activity, lying, and ruminating behaviors in dairy cattle

The objective of this study was to use automated activity, lying, and rumination monitors to characterize prepartum behavior and predict calving in dairy cattle. Data were collected from 20 primiparous and 33 multiparous Holstein dairy cattle from September 2011 to May 2013 at the University of Kentucky Coldstream Dairy. The HR Tag (SCR Engineers Ltd., Netanya, Israel) automatically collected neck activity and rumination data in 2-h increments. The IceQube (IceRobotics Ltd., South Queensferry, United Kingdom) automatically collected number of steps, lying time, standing time, number of transitions from standing to lying (ly-. ing bouts), and total motion, summed in 15-min increments. IceQube data were summed in 2-h increments to match HR Tag data. All behavioral data were collected for 14 d before the predicted calving date. Retrospective data analysis was performed using mixed linear models to examine behavioral changes by day in the 14 d before calving. Bihourly behavioral differences from baseline values over the 14 d before calving were also evaluated using mixed linear models. Changes in daily rumination time, total motion, lying time, and lying bouts occurred in the 14 d before calving. In the bihourly analysis, extreme values for all behaviors occurred in the final 24 h, indicating that the monitored behaviors may be useful in calving prediction. To determine whether technologies were useful at predicting calving, random forest, linear discriminant analysis, and neural network machine -learning techniques were constructed and implemented using R version 3.1.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). These methods were used on variables from each technology and all combined variables from both technologies. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies at the daily level yielded 100.0% sen-sitivity and 86.8% specificity. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies in bihourly increments was used to identify 2-h periods in the 8 h before calving with 82.8% sensitivity and 80.4% specificity. Changes in behavior and machine-learning alerts indicate that commercially marketed behavioral monitors may have calving prediction potential

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer: a UK Biobank and international consortia study

Background The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear. Methods We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Results After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73–0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90–0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92–0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated. Discussion Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention

Large-scale transcriptome-wide association study identifies new prostate cancer risk regions

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for prostate cancer (PrCa) have identified more than 100 risk regions, most of the risk genes at these regions remain largely unknown. Here we integrate the largest PrCa GWAS (N = 142,392) with gene expression measured in 45 tissues (N = 4458), including normal and tumor prostate, to perform a multi-tissue transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) for PrCa. We identify 217 genes at 84 independent 1 Mb regions associated with PrCa risk, 9 of which are region

An integrative multi-omics analysis to identify candidate DNA methylation biomarkers related to prostate cancer risk

It remains elusive whether some of the associations identified in genome-wide association studies of prostate cancer (PrCa) may be due to regulatory effects of genetic variants on CpG sites, which may further influence expression of PrCa target genes. To search for Cp

Identification of multiple risk loci and regulatory mechanisms influencing susceptibility to multiple myeloma

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have transformed our understanding of susceptibility to multiple myeloma (MM), but much of the heritability remains unexplained. We report a new GWAS, a meta-analysis with previous GWAS and a replication series, totalling 9974 MM cases and 247,556 controls of European ancestry. Collectively, these data provide evidence for six new MM risk loci, bringing the total number to 23. Integration of information from gene expression, epigenetic profiling and in situ Hi-C data for the 23 risk loci implicate disruption of developmental transcriptional regulators as a basis of MM susceptibility, compatible with altered B-cell differentiation as a key mechanism. Dysregulation of autophagy/apoptosis and cell cycle signalling feature as recurrently perturbed pathways. Our findings provide further insight

A hypervelocity projectile launcher for well perforation

Current oil well perforation techniques use low- to medium-velocity gun launchers for completing wells in soft rock. Shaped-charge jets are normally used in harder, more competent rock. A device to create a much higher velocity projectile was designed. This launcher will provide an alternative technique to be used when the conventional devices do not yield the maximum well performance. It is an adaptation of the axial cavity in a high explosive (HE) annulus design, with the axial cavity being filled with a low density foam material. Two configurations were tested; both had an HE annulus filled with organic foam, one had a projectile. Comparison of the two shots was made. A time sequence of Image Intensifier Camera photographs and sequential, orthogonal flash x-ray radiographs provided information on the propagation of the foam fragments, the first shock wave disturbance, the projectile motion and deformation, and the direct shock wave transmission from the main HE charge. DYNA2D calculations were made to assist in the experimental interpretation. 25 refs., 9 figs