Long-Tail Distributions And Total Returns On Risk-Based Investment Products

Use of target date funds (TDFs) in retirement plans increased in popularity following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. However, some argued that TDFs do not provide an acceptable level of protection against market downturns and long-tail events. This study assesses the ability of TDFs to deal with long-tail events. It builds a system of equations for seven asset classes that are used to build four hypothetical TDFs, and compares simulated total returns for four hypothetical TDFs over a 50-year horizon, where the stochastic terms for each of the underlying asset classes is based on the normal distribution and a long-tail distributions (the Laplace distribution). Simulations are repeated 2000 times. Total returns for four TDFs are calculated over non-overlapping 1-, 2- 3-, and 5-year horizons over the 50-year span for the 2000 simulations. Results show that about half the time the risk measure for the long-tail distribution are wider than the normal, and about half the time the opposite holds. It seems that the processes of asset diversification along with calculating returns over horizons of at least one year mitigates effects of long-tail characteristics. Even so, results do not bode well for those nearing retirement. Negative returns over 1- and 2-year investment horizons are possible 17% of the time for a conservative allocation over a 50-year period

A Technical Note on a Direct Estimate of the Significance of Bias in Forecasts.

This paper provides a direct test for forecast bias using the Thiel equation. In this test the constant term is simply the difference between the mean of the forecast and the mean of the actual data. A simple data transformation leads to this specification of the constant term. The approach is expanded to include a function with additional independent variables where one is interested in the constant term being simply the difference of the means of the dependent and any one of the independent variables.forecast bias, test for bias

The Effects of Education on the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This study develops a natural unemployment rate based upon education attainment. Behind this natural rate are labor force participation rates that vary positively with education attainment; observed unemployment rates that are inversely related to education attainment; and deviations of the observed unemployment rate from this hypothesized natural rate that are related to several expectation-based variables. With a lower natural unemployment rate today compared with years past, results point to a number of education-based challenges that employers will face. Matching employer needs with education will become more complicated as both education and needs become more specialized. Global labor markets will play an increasing role both in terms of skills and cost considerations. Next, the retirement of the baby boom generation will pose a unique challenge. Aside from the challenge of finding replacements from a pool of new workers smaller than the pool of retiring workers, retirements will not be easily predictable, thanks to the elimination of the earnings penalty for social security benefits. Finally, as college degrees become more prevalent, postgraduate studies will likely rise in importance as a distinguishing feature among skills.Business Economics (2008) 43, 45–54; doi:10.2145/20080205

Some causes of interstate differences in community bank performance

Community Banks, Bank Performance, Regional Bank Performance, G21,