Structural Change in Industrial Output: China 1995-2010.

Purpose The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008. Design/methodology/approach To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period. Findings It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period. Originality/value The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period

Natural disasters A framework of economic and social effects with reference to developing countries

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:DX202969 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

A contribution to estimate a benchmark capital stock. An optimal consistency method

There are alternative methods of estimating capital stock for a benchmark year. However, these methods are costly and time‐consuming, requiring the gathering of much basic information as well as the use of some convenient assumptions and guesses. In addition, a way is needed of checking whether the estimated benchmark is at the correct level. This paper proposes an optimal consistency method (OCM), which enables a capital stock to be estimated for a benchmark year, and which can also be used in checking the consistency of alternative estimates. This method, in contrast to most current approaches, pays due regards both to potential output and to the productivity of capital. It is applied to 45 cases for nine OECD countries and six Latin American ones. It works reasonably well, and it requires only small amounts of data, which are readily available. It appears to exhibit similar accuracy to alternative methods, but it is virtually inexpensive in both time and funding.benchmark capital, perpetual inventory method (PIM), potential output, capital productivity, optimal consistency method (OCM), O4, B4,

State, society and market in the aftermath of natural disasters in colonial India: a preliminary exploration

How did South Asian societies rebuild their economies following natural disasters? Based on five episodes from colonial India, this article suggests that between the mid-nineteenth and the mid-twentieth century, the response to disasters changed from laissez-faire to more state intervention. Despite this change, post-disaster rebuilding was complicated by unspecified rights to lost property, conflicting claims to property, asymmetric information between aid-givers and receivers, conflicts between agencies, lack of cooperation between gainers and losers, and in some of these examples, clashes between the colonial state and nationalist organisations