An Economical Approach to Estimate a Benchmark Capital Stock. An Optimal Consistency Method

There are alternative methods of estimating capital stock for a benchmark year. However, these methods are costly and time-consuming, requiring the gathering of much basic information as well as the use of some convenient assumptions and guesses. In addition, a way is needed of checking whether the estimated benchmark is at the correct level. This paper proposes an optimal consistency method (OCM), which enables a capital stock to be estimated for a benchmark year, and which can also be used in checking the consistency of alternative estimates. This method, in contrast to most current approaches, pays due regards both to potential output and to the productivity of capital. It works well, and it requires only small amounts of data, which are readily available. This makes it virtually costless in both time and funding.Benchmark capital, Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM), Potential output, Capital productivity, Optimal Consistency Method (OCM)

The Unlikeliness of an Economic Catastrophe: Localization & Globalization

This paper attempts to show why it is highly unlikely that a disaster can become a catastrophe. We first put forward an economic concept of disaster localization. This shows that a localized disaster is unlikely to affect the macro economy in any significant way and that economic development itself tends to make most disasters localized as an incidental consequence of its endogenous processes. We then show that the effect of current globalization on vulnerability seems to be double-edged. It may increase local vulnerability by disenfranchising communities and adding new sources of economic instability. But it may also speed up the downgrading of vulnerability at the national level by contributing to upgrade localization, further reducing the possibility of a catastrophe. It is therefore, difficult to imagine a realistic scenario in which a disaster could become catastrophic, even less so in developed countries.Catastrophe, Disaster escalation, Localization, Globalization, Vulnerability

Infrastructure Shortage: A Gap Approach

We propose a method to estimate both whether there is an overall infrastructure shortage and the optimal share of infrastructure in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). This is based on a two-gap model and linear programming, and is illustrated with the case of Mexico (1950-1985). The results show that Mexico appears to have started with an appropriate share of core infrastructures in GFCF. Then, there would have been an infrastructure shortage up until 1964, and an infrastructure surplus there after. It also shows that the optimal coefficient of infrastructure investment-to-optimal output would have been around 4.5 per cent, and that each unit of infrastructure would have optimally supported over three units of GFCF. A macroeconomic shortage do es not however mean that there would be a shortage everywhere, but it does imply that the economy as a whole would be in a net state of shortage. So our method may at least provide an appropriate context within which more focused analysis may be attempted.Infrastructure shortage, Two-gap model, Linear programming, Mexico

Can the Composition of Capital Constrain Potential Output? A Gap Approach

Focusing on core-infrastructure capital vis-�-vis productive capital, we propose a macroeconomic method to determine both which type of capital shortage would be constraining potential output and what would be the optimal composition, or optimal ratio between these two types, of capital in any given period. This method is based on an adapted two-gap model, estimated via linear programming, and illustrated with the cases of Chile and Mexico over the 1950-2000 period. The results show that there appears to be an oscillating pattern over this period, with either type of capital shortage alternating each other. The results also show that, optimally, core infrastructure appears to support a variable level of productive investment over time. However, the shortage of productive capital would at least be as important as that of infrastructure capital, suggesting an optimal trade off between the two. That is, the social opportunity cost of investing in either type of capital would be determined by the gap between the optimal growth rates estimated from these two types of capital. For either type of capital, a macroeconomic shortage would mean that the economy as a whole is in a net state of shortage.Capital shortage, Potential output, Two-gap model, Linear programming

A Benchmark Estimate for the Capital Stock. An Optimal Consistency Method

There are alternative methods to estimate a capital stock for a benchmark year. These methods, however, do not allow for an independent check, which could establish whether the estimated benchmark level is too high or too low. I propose here an optimal consistency method (OCM), which may allow estimating a capital stock level for a benchmark year and/or checking the consistency of alternative estimates of a benchmark capital stock.Benchmark capital, Perpetual inventory method (PIM), Optimal consistency method (OCM)

What is a "Complex Humanitarian Emergency"? An Analytical Essay

The prevailing usage of the concept of complex humanitarian emergency, even if valuable, is often fuzzy and misleading, and rarely articulated in a consistent framework, which could be used advantageously for research, interdisciplinary exchange, and policy making and analysis. We analyse critically the prevailing usage of the concept, and end up by setting up a more consistent and all embracing definition. Both the analysis and the proposed definition are based on a general analytical framework, coined disaster situation, we proposed a few years back in connection to natural disasters. The main conclusion is that the mostly implicit conceptual usage of the term, rather than the term itself, is akin to that of a disaster situation. As such, it can be used flexibly enough by various disciplines, especially from a political economy perspective, to design research, advance knowledge and propose policies within an analytical framework which is more consistent and systematic than that currently used.Disaster situation, Complexity, Emergency, Institutional setting

Net Capital Stock and Capital Productivity for China and Regions: 1960-2005. An Optimal Consistency Method

This analysis is based on the optimal consistency method (OCM) proposed by Albala-Bertrand (2003), which enables to estimate a capital stock for a benchmark year. This method, in contrast to most current approaches, pays due regards both to potential output and to the productivity of capital. From an initial OCM benchmark estimate, we produce series for the net capital stock, via a perpetual inventory method (PIM), for all China and some useful regional disaggregations over the 45-year period 1960-2005. As a by-product, we also make available the optimal productivities of incremental or "marginal" capital, corresponding to the net accumulated GFCF over 5-year sub-periods from 1960 onwards. We then attempt some structural analysis, showing that the quantity of resources rather than their quality appears to be largely behind growth rates, especially since the 1990s.China, Benchmark capital, Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM), Potential output, Capital productivity, Optimal Consistency Method (OCM), Structural analysis

Protecting People from Natural Disasters: Political Institutions and Ocean-Originated Hazards

Why do some leaders protect their citizens from natural disasters while others do not? This paper argues that leaders in large coalition systems provide more protection against natural disasters than leaders in small coalition systems. Yet, autocrats also provide large-scale disaster protection if members of their winning coalition are exposed to natural hazards. The paper tests these propositions by examining cross-country variation in the number of sea-level stations as a lower bound for protection against ocean-originated disasters. Empirical evidence indicates that leaders in large coalition systems deploy more sea-level stations than their counterparts in small coalition systems. The evidence also shows that if the national capital is close to the coast, thus exposing members of the ruling coalition to ocean-originated hazards, leaders across political systems install more sea-level stations

Structural Change in Industrial Output: China 1995-2010.

Purpose The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008. Design/methodology/approach To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period. Findings It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period. Originality/value The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period