The Effect of the L'Aquila Earthquake on Labour Market Outcomes

In this paper we analyse the effects of the L'Aquila earthquake on labour market outcomes for a period of fifteen months after its occurrence. Our estimates are based on a difference-in-differences strategy that compares residents of L'Aquila with residents of a control area before and after the earthquake. Three main results emerge from our empirical analysis: (1) the earthquake led to a modest, but significant, reduction in the probability of participating in the labour force for a period of nine months after the event; (2) while the employment likelihood decreased in the quarter immediately after the earthquake, it increased in the next four quarters; and (3) there is evidence of significant heterogeneous effects by gender and level of education

From Poverty to Disaster and Back: a Review of the Literature

Poor people are disproportionally affected by natural hazards and disasters. This paper provides a review of the multiple factors that explain why this is the case. It explores the role of exposure (often, but not always, poor people are more likely to be affected by hazards), vulnerability (when they are affected, poor people tend to lose a larger fraction of their wealth), and socio-economic resilience (poor people have a lower ability to cope with and recover from disaster impacts). Finally, the paper highlights the vicious circle between poverty and disaster losses: poverty is a major driver of people’s vulnerability to natural disasters, which in turn increase poverty in a measurable and significant way. The main policy implication is that poverty reduction can be considered as disaster risk management, and disaster risk management can be considered as poverty reduction

Country Concepts and the Rational Actor Trap: Limitations to Strategic Management of International NGOs

Growing criticism of inefficient development aid demanded new planning instruments of donors, including international NGOs (INGOs). A reorientation from isolated project-planning towards holistic country concepts and the increasing rationality of a result-orientated planning process were seen as answer. However, whether these country concepts - newly introduced by major INGOs too - have increased the efficiency of development cooperation is open to question. Firstly, there have been counteracting external factors, like the globalization of the aid business, that demanded structural changes in the composition of INGO portfolios towards growing short-term humanitarian aid; this was hardly compatible with the requirements of medium-term country planning. Secondly, the underlying vision of rationality as a remedy for the major ills of development aid was in itself a fallacy. A major change in the methodology of planning, closely connected with a shift of emphasis in the approach to development cooperation, away from project planning and service delivery, towards supporting the socio-cultural and political environment of the recipient communities, demands a reorientation of aid management: The most urgent change needed is by donors, away from the blinkers of result-orientated planning towards participative organizational cultures of learning.Des critiques croissantes de l'aide au développement inefficace exigent de nouveaux instruments de planification des bailleurs de fonds, y compris les ONG internationales (ONGI). Une réorientation de la planification des projets isolés vers des concepts holistiques de la planification de l’aide par pays ainsi que la rationalité croissante d'un processus de planification orientée vers les résultats ont été considérés comme réponse. Toutefois, si ces concepts de pays - nouvellement introduites par les grandes OING eux aussi - ont augmenté l'efficacité de la coopération au développement est ouvert à la question. Tout d'abord, il y a eu l’impact des facteurs externes, comme la mondialisation de l'entreprise de l'aide, qui a exigé des changements structurels dans la composition des portefeuilles des OING vers la croissance de l'aide humanitaire à court terme. Cela était difficilement compatible avec les exigences de l'aménagement du territoire à moyen terme. Deuxièmement, la vision sous-jacente de la rationalité accrue de la planification, concentré sur les resultats, comme un remède pour les grands maux de l'aide au développement était en soi une erreur. Un changement majeur dans la méthodologie de la planification, étroitement liée à un changement d'orientation dans l'approche de la coopération au développement, qui n’est pas concentrer sur planification du projet et la prestation de services, mais qui soutienne l'environnement socio-culturel et politique des communautés bénéficiaires, exige une réorientation de la gestion de l’aide: Le changement le plus urgent est un changement par les donateurs eux-mêmes, qui devrait implanter des cultures de collaboration étroit avec les partenaires et la population locale

A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks

Traditional methods of risk assessment have provided good service in support of policy, mainly in relation to standard setting and regulation of hazardous chemicals or practices. In recent years, however, it has become apparent that many of the risks facing society are systemic in nature – complex risks, set within wider social, economic and environmental contexts. Reflecting this, policy-making too has become more wide-ranging in scope, more collaborative and more precautionary in approach. In order to inform such policies, more integrated methods of assessment are needed. Based on work undertaken in two large EU-funded projects (INTARESE and HEIMTSA), this paper reviews the range of approaches to assessment now in used, proposes a framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment (both as a basis for bringing together and choosing between different methods of assessment, and extending these to more complex problems), and discusses some of the challenges involved in conducting integrated assessments to support policy

Industrial Interdependence Change in Chile: 1960-90 a comparison with Taiwan and South Korea

There appears to be two main market-oriented policy-models of development: the Japanese Model (JM) and theWashington Consensus Model (WCM). Both stress the importance of, and are based on, macroeconomic stability, export-led development, and private sector initiative. There are, however, fundamental differences as regards the role of the market and the role of the government in development, and thereby the range of economic policies. The star performers, and therefore the main representatives of the Japanese Model are Taiwan and South Korea, while the star performer of theWashington Consensus is surely Chile. The question is whether the Chilean economy has developed a strong overall sectoral interdependence, and a sound manufacturing interdependence, as a basis for endogenous sustainability, as was already the case for both Taiwan and South Korea as early as the mid-1970s. This paper attempts to tackle this issue via sectoral linkage analysis, based on an input-output approach. The conclusion is that, whatever other successes from this wholesale experiment, the result in terms of both industrial interdependence and manufacturing industrialisation is weak and so far unpromising.

Relative Capital Shortage and Potential Output Constraint: A Gap Approach

Focusing on core-infrastructure capital vis-a-vis productive capital, we propose a macroeconomic method to estimate their optimal utilisation ratio in production and their relative shortage in any period. The method is based on an adapted two-gap model, estimated via linear programming, with application to Chile and Mexico over the 1950-2000 period. Core infrastructure appears to support a variable level of productive investment, relative capital shortage alternating and imposing constraints on potential output over time. This suggests an optimal investment trade off, based on a social opportunity cost that derives from the prevailing gap in any period.Capital shortage, potential output, two-gap model,