Flottement Du Taux De Change Et Incomplétude De La Transmission De La Politique Monétaire Au Taux Débiteur

This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the credit market where the interference between nominal exchange rate, banks' balance sheet and credit channels of monetary policy transmission give rise to an incomplete pass through to the lending rate. The model shows that the overlapping of these three channels under floating exchange rate regime and external debt with endogenous risk premium is the cause of a conflictual effect of monetary shocks on banks behavior. This is in line with research highlighting externalities of floating exchange rate regime

An Alternative Identification of the Economic Shocks in SVAR Models

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach allowing us to identify the structural shocks in the SVAR model. This approach ameliorates substantially the decomposition methods of Bernanke (1986) and Bernanke & Mihov (1998) and improves in the same way the identification procedures pioneered by Blanchard & Quah (1989) and Blanchard & Perotti (2002).SVAR, Economic Shocks, Nonlinearity, Viability, Trajectories, Differential Inclusion.

The impacts of International Financial Crisis on Saudi Arabia Economy: Evidence from Asymmetric SVAR modelling

This paper aims to measure the impacts of International Financial Crisis on the performance of the Saudi Arabian economy from 1968 to 2010. Linear and non-linear SVAR methodologies are used to exhibit the interdependence between the process of international liquidity, net-exports and economic growth. The empirical models show that the impacts of international financial crisis lead to an immediate drop in the net-exports and conduct to reduce gradually real economic growth during roughly three years. In the horizon, the variation in economic growth is largely attributed to domestic supply shocks, but negative shocks of international financial markets drove to reduce the economic growth in the long-run by 1.04

HETEROGENEITE DE LA TRANSMISSION DE LA POLITIQUE MONETAIRE ET EVALUATION INTERNE DU RISQUE DE CREDIT : ANALYSE EN EQUILIBRE PARTIEL

This article presents a partial equilibrium model of the credit market, with banking duopoly subject to a regulatory capital. The results of the model reveal a heterogeneity of monetary policy transmission, due to the disparity of internal rating based methods used by banks to calculate risk-weighted assets and capital requirement. The comparative statics exercise shows a weakening of the credit channel because of risk estimation bias and internal rating methods variability. Thus, the article highlights the strategic issue of the “laissez-faire” given to banks in determining their regulatory capital and calls for a reconciliation between micro-prudential regulation and macroeconomic policy making so as to establish macro-prudential regulation

Effet de l’Ancrage des Anticipations d’Inflation Sous le Régime Intérimaire du Taux de Change au Maroc

L'objectif de ce travail de recherche est de modéliser les mécanismes qui influent sur l'ancrage des anticipations d'inflation dans deux contextes de régime de change distincts : le régime intérimaire en cours au Maroc et un régime de change flottant, simulé à travers un calibrage contrefactuel du modèle. Cette modélisation vise à offrir une compréhension approfondie des facteurs sous-jacents à l'effet de l'ancrage des anticipations d'inflation dans ces deux cadres, permettant ainsi d'analyser et de comparer les dynamiques économiques associées à chaque régime. En effet, cet article démontre que, sous le régime de change intérimaire qu’adopte le Maroc, l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, en dépit d’être un gage de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, entraine un désalignement du Dirham en termes réels suite à un choc d’offre exogène. Cette causalité est déduite des résultats des simulations effectuées dans le cadre d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique, stochastique, semi-structurel et calibré pour le cas du Maroc. En effet, les simulations menées sous les calibrages factuel et contrefactuel permettent de graduer l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation et de scénariser les effets de propagation du choc et le processus d’ajustement macroéconomique sous deux régimes de change, intérimaire et flottant. Ce faisant, les réponses impulsionnelles issues de ces simulations indiquent que le désalignement du taux de change réel, dont la durée s’étend sur le long terme, s’explique par la dérive du niveau général des prix, observée uniquement en présence d’un parfait ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, conjugué à la politique de stabilisation du taux de change nominal sous le régime intérimaire. Alors que cette déviation est compensée par une dérive conséquente du taux de change nominal sous le régime flottant, elle ne l’est point sous le régime intérimaire et finit par incliner la phase de récession et retarder la reprise économique. Dans cette perspective, le présent article prône un passage vers le flottement qui soit ratifié de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, à travers l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, sachant que cet ancrage produit un effet récessif dans le régime intérimaire.   The objective of this research work is to model the mechanisms that influence the anchoring of inflation expectations in two distinct exchange rate regime contexts: the current interim regime in Morocco and a floating exchange rate regime, simulated through a counterfactual calibration of the model. This modeling aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the factors underlying the effect of anchoring inflation expectations in these two frameworks, thus making it possible to analyze and compare the economic dynamics associated with each regime. In fact, this article demonstrates that, under the interim regime adopted by Morocco, the anchoring of inflation expectations, despite being a guarantee of the credibility of monetary policy, leads to a misalignment of the real exchange rate following a supply shock. This causality is deduced from the simulations within the framework of a dynamic, stochastic, semi-structural general equilibrium model calibrated for the case of Morocco. Indeed, the simulations carried out under the factual and counterfactual calibrations make it possible to graduate inflation expectations anchoring and to script the propagation of the shock and the macroeconomic adjustment process under two exchange rate regimes. The impulse responses resulting from these simulations indicate that the misalignment of the Dirham in real terms, the duration of which extends over the long term, is explained by the drift in the general price level observed only in the presence of a perfect anchoring of inflation expectations, combined with the policy of stabilizing the nominal exchange rate under the interim regime. While this deviation is offset by a significant drift in the nominal exchange rate under the floating regime, it is not offset under the interim regime and ends up tilting the recession phase and delaying economic recovery. From this perspective, this article advocates a move towards floating which is ratified by the credibility of monetary policy, through the anchoring of inflation expectations, knowing that this anchoring produces a recessive effect in the interim regime

L’Effet Récessif de l’Ancrage des Anticipations d’Inflation sous le Régime Intérimaire du Taux de Change au Maroc

Cet article démontre que, sous le régime de change intérimaire qu’adopte le Maroc, l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, en dépit d’être un gage de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, entraine un désalignement du Dirham en termes réels suite à un choc d’offre exogène. Cette causalité est déduite des résultats des simulations effectuées dans le cadre d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique, stochastique, semi-structurel et calibré pour le cas du Maroc. En effet, les simulations menées sous les calibrages factuel et contrefactuel permettent de graduer l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation et de scénariser les effets de propagation du choc et le processus d’ajustement macroéconomique sous deux régimes de change, intérimaire et flottant. Ce faisant, les réponses impulsionnelles issues de ces simulations indiquent que le désalignement du taux de change réel, dont la durée s’étend sur le long terme, s’explique par la dérive du niveau général des prix observée uniquement en présence d’un parfait ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, conjugué à la politique de stabilisation du taux de change nominal sous le régime intérimaire. Alors que cette dérive est compensée par une dérive conséquente du taux de change nominal sous le régime flottant, elle ne l’est point sous le régime intérimaire et finit par incliner la phase de récession et retarder la reprise économique. Dans cette perspective, le présent article prône un passage vers le flottement qui soit ratifié de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, à travers l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, sachant que cet ancrage produit un effet récessif dans le régime intérimaire.   This article demonstrates that, under the interim regime adopted by Morocco, the anchoring of inflation expectations, despite being a guarantee of the credibility of monetary policy, leads to a misalignment of the real exchange rate following a supply shock. This causality is deduced from the simulations within the framework of a dynamic, stochastic, semi-structural general equilibrium model calibrated for the case of Morocco. Indeed, the simulations carried out under the factual and counterfactual calibrations make it possible to graduate inflation expectations anchoring and to script the propagation of the shock and the macroeconomic adjustment process under two exchange rate regimes. The impulse responses resulting from these simulations indicate that the misalignment of the Dirham in real terms, the duration of which extends over the long term, is explained by the drift in the general price level observed only in the presence of a perfect anchoring of inflation expectations, combined with the policy of stabilizing the nominal exchange rate under the interim regime. While this drift is offset by a significant drift in the nominal exchange rate under the floating regime, it is not offset under the interim regime and ends up tilting the recession phase and delaying economic recovery. From this perspective, this article advocates a move towards floating which is ratified by the credibility of monetary policy, through the anchoring of inflation expectations, knowing that this anchoring produces a recessive effect in the interim regime

L’Effet Récessif de l’Ancrage des Anticipations d’Inflation sous le Régime Intérimaire du Taux de Change au Maroc

Cet article démontre que, sous le régime de change intérimaire qu’adopte le Maroc, l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, en dépit d’être un gage de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, entraine un désalignement du Dirham en termes réels suite à un choc d’offre exogène. Cette causalité est déduite des résultats des simulations effectuées dans le cadre d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique, stochastique, semi-structurel et calibré pour le cas du Maroc. En effet, les simulations menées sous les calibrages factuel et contrefactuel permettent de graduer l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation et de scénariser les effets de propagation du choc et le processus d’ajustement macroéconomique sous deux régimes de change, intérimaire et flottant. Ce faisant, les réponses impulsionnelles issues de ces simulations indiquent que le désalignement du taux de change réel, dont la durée s’étend sur le long terme, s’explique par la dérive du niveau général des prix observée uniquement en présence d’un parfait ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, conjugué à la politique de stabilisation du taux de change nominal sous le régime intérimaire. Alors que cette dérive est compensée par une dérive conséquente du taux de change nominal sous le régime flottant, elle ne l’est point sous le régime intérimaire et finit par incliner la phase de récession et retarder la reprise économique. Dans cette perspective, le présent article prône un passage vers le flottement qui soit ratifié de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, à travers l’ancrage des anticipations d’inflation, sachant que cet ancrage produit un effet récessif dans le régime intérimaire.   This article demonstrates that, under the interim regime adopted by Morocco, the anchoring of inflation expectations, despite being a guarantee of the credibility of monetary policy, leads to a misalignment of the real exchange rate following a supply shock. This causality is deduced from the simulations within the framework of a dynamic, stochastic, semi-structural general equilibrium model calibrated for the case of Morocco. Indeed, the simulations carried out under the factual and counterfactual calibrations make it possible to graduate inflation expectations anchoring and to script the propagation of the shock and the macroeconomic adjustment process under two exchange rate regimes. The impulse responses resulting from these simulations indicate that the misalignment of the Dirham in real terms, the duration of which extends over the long term, is explained by the drift in the general price level observed only in the presence of a perfect anchoring of inflation expectations, combined with the policy of stabilizing the nominal exchange rate under the interim regime. While this drift is offset by a significant drift in the nominal exchange rate under the floating regime, it is not offset under the interim regime and ends up tilting the recession phase and delaying economic recovery. From this perspective, this article advocates a move towards floating which is ratified by the credibility of monetary policy, through the anchoring of inflation expectations, knowing that this anchoring produces a recessive effect in the interim regime

Excavated pulmonary nodules: an unusual clinical presentation of lung metastasis in two cases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excavated pulmonary metastasis are rare. We present two cases of excavated pulmonary nodules proved to be metastases from osteosarcoma and gallblader lymphoma.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>The first one is 39-year-old man in whom cholecystectomy made the diagnosis of primary non-Hodgkin's lymphoma of the gallbladder. He presented in chest CT scan excavated nodules that had been biopsied and confirmed the diagnosis of non hodgkin lymphoma. He underwent 8 courses of chemotherapy CHOP 21 with complete remission. The second one is an 21 years old man who presented a right leg osteoblastic osteosarcoma with only excavated pulmonary nodules in extension assessment. He had 3 courses of polychemotherapy API (doxorubicin, platinum, and ifosfamide) with partial response. Unfortunately, he died following a septic shock.</p> <p>Review of the literature shows that excavated pulmonary nodules as metastasis are rare but we should consider this diagnosis every time we are in front of a cancer. Chest computed tomography is the best diagnosis imaging that could make this diagnosis. Differential diagnosis between benign and malignant bullous lesions is important because surgical excision affects survival in some malignancies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although pulmonary nodules are the most common cancer metastasis, a differential diagnosis of a concurrent primary malignancy should always be considered every time we have excavated lesions, even in patients with known malignant disease. Thorough chest evaluation is important, as multiple primary malignancies may occur concomitantly.</p

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STANDARD NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL APPLIED TO MOROCCO: A BAYESIAN ESTIMATION

In this paper, we criticize the use of the standard New Keynesian model in analyzing the Moroccan economy. By showing that, in addition to the well-known structural short comings of the model, it also fails to replicate the characteristics of the interest rate observed in data in the case of the Moroccan economy. In order to improve the performance of the model in replicating the characteristics of the interest rate, we moved from the standard model and we estimated two other variants. We found that the Taylor rule, as it stands in the standard model, doesn’t capture, wholly, the way that the monetary policy is conducted in Morocco. And a version of the Taylor rule that reacts also to the deviations of inflation and output from their values lagged by one period, improve the fit between the model and the data

improving parking availability prediction in smart cities with iot and ensemble based model

Abstract Smart cities are part of the ongoing advances in technology to provide a better life quality to its inhabitants. Urban mobility is one of the most important components of smart cities. Due to the growing number of vehicles in these cities, urban traffic congestion is becoming more common. In addition, finding places to park even in car parks is not easy for drivers who run in circles. Studies have shown that drivers looking for parking spaces contribute up to 30% to traffic congestion. In this context, it is necessary to predict the spaces available to drivers in parking lots where they want to park. We propose in this paper a new system that integrates the IoT and a predictive model based on ensemble methods to optimize the prediction of the availability of parking spaces in smart parking. The tests that we carried out on the Birmingham parking data set allowed to reach a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.06% on average with the algorithm of Bagging Regression (BR). This results have thus improved the best existing performance by over 6.6% while dramatically reducing system complexity