22 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
Consumer confidence indeces and short-term forecasting of consumption
Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm
link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity,
notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to
establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of
consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a
range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by
assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute
any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial
deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption
Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption
Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Euro Area's Fiscal Consolidation 2011-2013: A Simulation-Based Approach
Time-Scale Analysis of Sovereign Bonds Market Co-Movement in the EU
We study co-movement of 10-year sovereign bond yields of 11 EU countries. Our analysis is focused mainly on changes of co-movement in the crisis period, especially near two significant dates - the fall of Lehman Brothers, September 15, 2008, and the announcement of increase of Greek's public deficit in October 20, 2009. We study co-movement dynamics using wavelet analysis, it allows us to observe how co-movement changes across scales, which can be interpreted as investment horizons, and through time. We divide the countries into three groups; the Core of the Eurozone, the Periphery of the Eurozone and the states outside the Eurozone. Results indicate that co-movement considerably decreased in the crisis period for all countries pairs, however there are significant differences among the groups. Furthermore, we demonstrate that co-movement of bond yields significantly varies across scales
Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets: The Role of Economic Sentiments
An investigation of the robustness of policy rules under adaptive learning and rational expectations
EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo