The Utility of Abstaining in Binary Classification

We explore the problem of binary classification in machine learning, with a twist - the classifier is allowed to abstain on any datum, professing ignorance about the true class label without committing to any prediction. This is directly motivated by applications like medical diagnosis and fraud risk assessment, in which incorrect predictions have potentially calamitous consequences. We focus on a recent spate of theoretically driven work in this area that characterizes how allowing abstentions can lead to fewer errors in very general settings. Two areas are highlighted: the surprising possibility of zero-error learning, and the fundamental tradeoff between predicting sufficiently often and avoiding incorrect predictions. We review efficient algorithms with provable guarantees for each of these areas. We also discuss connections to other scenarios, notably active learning, as they suggest promising directions of further inquiry in this emerging field.Comment: Short surve

PAC-Bayes Iterated Logarithm Bounds for Martingale Mixtures

We give tight concentration bounds for mixtures of martingales that are simultaneously uniform over (a) mixture distributions, in a PAC-Bayes sense; and (b) all finite times. These bounds are proved in terms of the martingale variance, extending classical Bernstein inequalities, and sharpening and simplifying prior work

Learning to Abstain from Binary Prediction

A binary classifier capable of abstaining from making a label prediction has two goals in tension: minimizing errors, and avoiding abstaining unnecessarily often. In this work, we exactly characterize the best achievable tradeoff between these two goals in a general semi-supervised setting, given an ensemble of predictors of varying competence as well as unlabeled data on which we wish to predict or abstain. We give an algorithm for learning a classifier in this setting which trades off its errors with abstentions in a minimax optimal manner, is as efficient as linear learning and prediction, and is demonstrably practical. Our analysis extends to a large class of loss functions and other scenarios, including ensembles comprised of specialists that can themselves abstain

Sharp Finite-Time Iterated-Logarithm Martingale Concentration

We give concentration bounds for martingales that are uniform over finite times and extend classical Hoeffding and Bernstein inequalities. We also demonstrate our concentration bounds to be optimal with a matching anti-concentration inequality, proved using the same method. Together these constitute a finite-time version of the law of the iterated logarithm, and shed light on the relationship between it and the central limit theorem.Comment: 25 page

Linking Generative Adversarial Learning and Binary Classification

In this note, we point out a basic link between generative adversarial (GA) training and binary classification -- any powerful discriminator essentially computes an (f-)divergence between real and generated samples. The result, repeatedly re-derived in decision theory, has implications for GA Networks (GANs), providing an alternative perspective on training f-GANs by designing the discriminator loss function

Sequential Nonparametric Testing with the Law of the Iterated Logarithm

We propose a new algorithmic framework for sequential hypothesis testing with i.i.d. data, which includes A/B testing, nonparametric two-sample testing, and independence testing as special cases. It is novel in several ways: (a) it takes linear time and constant space to compute on the fly, (b) it has the same power guarantee as a non-sequential version of the test with the same computational constraints up to a small factor, and (c) it accesses only as many samples as are required - its stopping time adapts to the unknown difficulty of the problem. All our test statistics are constructed to be zero-mean martingales under the null hypothesis, and the rejection threshold is governed by a uniform non-asymptotic law of the iterated logarithm (LIL). For the case of nonparametric two-sample mean testing, we also provide a finite sample power analysis, and the first non-asymptotic stopping time calculations for this class of problems. We verify our predictions for type I and II errors and stopping times using simulations

Muffled Semi-Supervised Learning

We explore a novel approach to semi-supervised learning. This approach is contrary to the common approach in that the unlabeled examples serve to "muffle," rather than enhance, the guidance provided by the labeled examples. We provide several variants of the basic algorithm and show experimentally that they can achieve significantly higher AUC than boosted trees, random forests and logistic regression when unlabeled examples are available

Optimally Combining Classifiers Using Unlabeled Data

We develop a worst-case analysis of aggregation of classifier ensembles for binary classification. The task of predicting to minimize error is formulated as a game played over a given set of unlabeled data (a transductive setting), where prior label information is encoded as constraints on the game. The minimax solution of this game identifies cases where a weighted combination of the classifiers can perform significantly better than any single classifier

Scalable Semi-Supervised Aggregation of Classifiers

We present and empirically evaluate an efficient algorithm that learns to aggregate the predictions of an ensemble of binary classifiers. The algorithm uses the structure of the ensemble predictions on unlabeled data to yield significant performance improvements. It does this without making assumptions on the structure or origin of the ensemble, without parameters, and as scalably as linear learning. We empirically demonstrate these performance gains with random forests

Optimal Binary Classifier Aggregation for General Losses

We address the problem of aggregating an ensemble of predictors with known loss bounds in a semi-supervised binary classification setting, to minimize prediction loss incurred on the unlabeled data. We find the minimax optimal predictions for a very general class of loss functions including all convex and many non-convex losses, extending a recent analysis of the problem for misclassification error. The result is a family of semi-supervised ensemble aggregation algorithms which are as efficient as linear learning by convex optimization, but are minimax optimal without any relaxations. Their decision rules take a form familiar in decision theory -- applying sigmoid functions to a notion of ensemble margin -- without the assumptions typically made in margin-based learning.Comment: NIPS 201