Tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: analysis of risk determinants in national surveillance data

Development of tuberculosis (TB) is determined by various risk factors and the interactions of temporal and spatial distributions. The aim of this study was to identify the most salient risk factors for TB disease as well as multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) at the oblast (provincial) level in Kazakhstan

Tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: analysis of risk determinants in national surveillance data

Background: Development of tuberculosis (TB) is determined by various risk factors and the interactions of temporal and spatial distributions. The aim of this study was to identify the most salient risk factors for TB disease as well as multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) at the oblast (provincial) level in Kazakhstan. Methods: Correlational and descriptive analyses were conducted at the oblast and national level using data provided by the country’s National Institute of Geography (NIG) and the National Tuberculosis Program (NTP). Reported incident case notification rates (CNRs) and prevalence vary by oblast, thus the study investigated which determinants contributed to this regional variation and compared burdens among oblasts. Results: The results showed that while tuberculosis CNRs decreased over the study period, MDR-TB conversely increased. Two oblasts -Atyrauskaya and Mangystauskaya - presented especially significant anomalies with large decreases in TB incident CNRs coupled with comparatively large increases in MDR-TB incident CNRs. Conclusion: Understanding the distribution of TB and MDR-TB cases and associated risk factors, especially the “unknown risk factor” categorization points to the need for future research

Operation of Gate-Controlled Irrigation System Using HEC-RAS 2D for Spring Flood Hazard Reduction

Flooding events have been negatively affecting the Republic of Kazakhstan, with higher occurrence in flat parts of the country during spring snowmelt in snow-fed rivers. The current project aims to assess the flood hazard reduction capacity of Alva irrigation system, which is located in the interfluve area of Yesil and Nura Rivers. The assessment is performed by simulating spring floods using HEC-RAS 2D and controlling the gates of the existing system. A digital elevation model of the study domain was generated by integration of Sentinel-1 radar images with the data obtained from bathymetrical survey and aerial photography. Comparison of the simulated inundation area with a remote sensing image of spring flood in April 2019 indicated that the main reason for differences was due to local snowmelt in the study domain. Exclusion of areas flooded by local snowmelt, which were identified using the updated DEM, from comparison increased the model similarity to 70%. Further simulations of different exceedance probability hydrographs enabled classification of the study area according to maximum flood depth and flood duration. Theoretical changes on the dam crest as well as additional gates were proposed to improve the system capacity by flooding agriculturally important areas, which were not flooded during the simulation of the current system. The developed model could be used by local authorities for further development of flood mitigation measures and assessment of different development plans of the irrigation system

Tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: analysis of risk determinants in national surveillance data

Abstract Background Development of tuberculosis (TB) is determined by various risk factors and the interactions of temporal and spatial distributions. The aim of this study was to identify the most salient risk factors for TB disease as well as multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) at the oblast (provincial) level in Kazakhstan. Methods Correlational and descriptive analyses were conducted at the oblast and national level using data provided by the country’s National Institute of Geography (NIG) and the National Tuberculosis Program (NTP). Reported incident case notification rates (CNRs) and prevalence vary by oblast, thus the study investigated which determinants contributed to this regional variation and compared burdens among oblasts. Results The results showed that while tuberculosis CNRs decreased over the study period, MDR-TB conversely increased. Two oblasts -Atyrauskaya and Mangystauskaya - presented especially significant anomalies with large decreases in TB incident CNRs coupled with comparatively large increases in MDR-TB incident CNRs. Conclusion Understanding the distribution of TB and MDR-TB cases and associated risk factors, especially the “unknown risk factor” categorization points to the need for future research.</p