Essays on political economy

This thesis consists of three self-contained essays which address three different issues with respect to the roles of democratic and non-democratic institutions in the economy. The first essay titled, 'Democratisation, systems of government and public spending' investigates whether changes from non-democratic government systems to democracy bring about a significant effect on the size of public spending relative to a country's economy. Based on unbalanced panel data for 177 countries over the period 1960-2008, the results provide evidence that the effect of democratisation on public spending size is not robustly significant and depends on the specifics of government systems that prevail before and after a political change. Further, the results provide evidence that only democratisation that originates from a military dictatorship and ends up with a parliamentary democracy has a robust and significant effect on public spending size. The second essay titled 'Electoral budget cycles under non-democratic regimes' investigates the relationship between elections and central government budget balance in countries that are considered to be non-democratic. Using a sample consisting of unbalanced panel data from 29 countries between 1960 and 2006, the essay provides evidence that electoral budget cycles do exist under non-democratic regimes. The relationship between elections and central government budget balance is significant and robust to a number of variations in control variables, estimation models, sample selection criteria and designations of election year dummy. The essay also provides evidence that the persistence of the relationship is driven by countries that are less distant from democracy (that is, shallow autocracies). The third essay titled 'Food prices and political survival' investigates the relationship between food prices and the occurrence of national leader exits, particularly in food importing countries. Using international food price and domestic consumption data to construct a country-specific food price index for 77 economies between 1961 and 2009, the essay provides evidence that food prices have a robust significant effect on political survival. The effect does not change with changes in the log of real GDP per capita, real GDP per capita growth rate and the state of democracy. However, once the joint-effect between food prices and the state of democracy is controlled, the effect of food prices on political survival is significant only under democracy and not under non-democracy

The Role of Investment-Based Islamic Crowdfunding for Halal MSMEs: Evidence from Indonesia

Investment-based crowdfunding can be used as an alternative financing tool for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in Indonesia. Since the population in Indonesia is dominated by Muslim, Islamic financial technology companies that provide crowdfunding services are continue to emerge and develop. The development of these services also encourages the progress of the halal industry because both have integrated relationships. However, not all funding campaigns for crowdfunding services are successful. This study aims to analyze the development of Islamic crowdfunding business in Indonesia and factors affecting the success of funding campaigns in these services using multiple linear regression methods. Primary data obtained through interviews and literature review while secondary data is collected from 39 funding campaigns in 4 Islamic crowdfunding online services. It was found that the regulation of Islamic financial technology did not yet exist though in practice it was already widely found. On the other hand, crowdfunding models in Indonesia still need improvement in its scheme. By using a quantitative approach, it was found that funding target, campaign duration, payback periods and rate of return have a positive effect on campaign success, while a minimum amount of investment has a negative effect which means the minimum amount of investment available in the crowdfunding service is appropriate. After conducting research with a qualitative and quantitative approach, SWOT analysis was conducted at the end of the study to find out the challenges and opportunities for the halal industry in utilizing such Islamic crowdfunding service

The Determinants of the Value of Mahr in Muslim Societies: Evidence from the Indonesian Family Life Surveys

This paper aims to analyze the factors that determine the value of mahr in Muslim societies. The analysis is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with pooled cross-section data from the last three waves of the Indonesian Family Life Surveys (IFLS). The main finding is that socioeconomic status in the forms of groom’s ownership of assets and education level matters most for the value of mahr. This finding holds for regression with full sample as well as subsamples, i.e. couples whose groom is Javanese, couples whose groom is non-Javanese, couples whose bride is Javanese and couples whose bride is non-Javanese. Socioeconomic status in the form of bride’s education level also matters for the value of mahr with some exceptions. The other finding is that perceived probability of divorce as represented by differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple do not have a significant effect on the value of mahr. The effect of physical appearances in the form of bride’s height is at best not robust and subject to the sample or subsample included. These findings can be useful as a reference to make marriage decisions in the future or to evaluate the ongoing practices for possible reforms

Comparing Credit Risk in Islamic and Conventional Banking Using Bank-Level Panel Data

Abstract: This paper investigates if there is a difference in the level of the credit risk of Islamic as compared to the level of credit risk of conventional banks. This paper further investigates the importance of various credit risk determinants and possible differences in how such determinants affect credit risk in Islamic and conventional banking industries. This paper employs dynamic panel regressions using system GMM estimators. The sample includes 11 Islamic and 95 conventional banks in Indonesia throughout 2003-2018. Based on the results, it is concluded that there is no difference in the level of the credit risk of Islamic as compared to that of conventional banks. It is also concluded that credit risk is significantly affected by current and lagged asset size, lagged financing, current profitability, lagged economic growth, and current inflation. The effect of lagged financing, current profitability, and lagged economic growth is different in Islamic and conventional banking.Abstrak: Makalah ini menganalisis apakah terdapat perbedaan antara tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dan tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan konvensional. Makalah ini selanjutnya juga menganalisis signifikansi faktor-faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi risiko kredit dan kemungkinan perbedaan pengaruh faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dibandingkan pada perbankan konvensional. Makalah ini menggunakan regresi panel dinamis dengan system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Sampel dalam makalah ini mencakup 11 bank syariah dan 95 bank konvensional di Indonesia selama periode 2003-2018. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan perbedaan antara tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dan tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan konvensional. Begitu pula, dapat disimpulkan bahwa risiko kredit secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh ukuran aset tahun ini dan tahun lalu, pembiayaan tahun lalu, profitabilitas tahun ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun lalu dan inflasi tahun ini. Pengaruh pembiayaan tahun lalu, profitabilitas tahun ini, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun lalu, secara khusus berbeda pada perbankan syariah dibandingkan pada perbankan konvensional

Comparing Credit Risk in Islamic and Conventional Banking Using Bank-Level Panel Data

Abstract: This paper investigates if there is a difference in the level of the credit risk of Islamic as compared to the level of credit risk of conventional banks. This paper further investigates the importance of various credit risk determinants and possible differences in how such determinants affect credit risk in Islamic and conventional banking industries. This paper employs dynamic panel regressions using system GMM estimators. The sample includes 11 Islamic and 95 conventional banks in Indonesia throughout 2003-2018. Based on the results, it is concluded that there is no difference in the level of the credit risk of Islamic as compared to that of conventional banks. It is also concluded that credit risk is significantly affected by current and lagged asset size, lagged financing, current profitability, lagged economic growth, and current inflation. The effect of lagged financing, current profitability, and lagged economic growth is different in Islamic and conventional banking.Abstrak: Makalah ini menganalisis apakah terdapat perbedaan antara tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dan tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan konvensional. Makalah ini selanjutnya juga menganalisis signifikansi faktor-faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi risiko kredit dan kemungkinan perbedaan pengaruh faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dibandingkan pada perbankan konvensional. Makalah ini menggunakan regresi panel dinamis dengan system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Sampel dalam makalah ini mencakup 11 bank syariah dan 95 bank konvensional di Indonesia selama periode 2003-2018. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan perbedaan antara tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan syariah dan tingkat risiko kredit pada perbankan konvensional. Begitu pula, dapat disimpulkan bahwa risiko kredit secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh ukuran aset tahun ini dan tahun lalu, pembiayaan tahun lalu, profitabilitas tahun ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun lalu dan inflasi tahun ini. Pengaruh pembiayaan tahun lalu, profitabilitas tahun ini, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun lalu, secara khusus berbeda pada perbankan syariah dibandingkan pada perbankan konvensional

Law review on fintech P2P lending, regulations and its institutions in Indonesia

This article aims to review fintech P2P lending in Indonesia from the perspective of Islamic law. P2P lending has great potential to support financial inclusion in the context of economic empowerment from various layers. However, if this P2P lending practice is not accompanied by adequate legal instruments, this financing model will have a high risk. Legal protection needs to be given to all parties involved in this transaction proportionally. Islamic law needs to review the practice of P2P lending in Indonesia so that in the future it can provide more benefits to the community. From the results of the review, it was found that there are no regulations that support the establishment of Islamic P2P lending. The P2P lending concept cannot accommodate sharia contracts that can be applied to fintech financing. Islamic P2P lending companies in Indonesia are still few compared to conventional ones, and even there is no guarantee of complying with sharia principles

Law review on fintech P2P lending, regulations and its institutions in Indonesia

This article aims to review fintech P2P lending in Indonesia from the perspective of Islamic law. P2P lending has great potential to support financial inclusion in the context of economic empowerment from various layers. However, if this P2P lending practice is not accompanied by adequate legal instruments, this financing model will have a high risk. Legal protection needs to be given to all parties involved in this transaction proportionally. Islamic law needs to review the practice of P2P lending in Indonesia so that in the future it can provide more benefits to the community. From the results of the review, it was found that there are no regulations that support the establishment of Islamic P2P lending. The P2P lending concept cannot accommodate sharia contracts that can be applied to fintech financing. Islamic P2P lending companies in Indonesia are still few compared to conventional ones, and even there is no guarantee of complying with sharia principles

The Cyclical Behavior of Capital Buffer of Indonesian Islamic and Conventional Banks

This paper is aimed at analyzing the cyclical behavior of capital buffer of Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia. More specifically, this paper has three objectives. First, to test whether capital buffer in Indonesian banking industry as a whole is countercyclical or procyclical. Second, to test whether there is a difference in the level of capital buffer of Islamic banks as compared to the level of capital buffer of conventional banks. Third, to test whether there is a difference in the cyclicality of capital buffer of Islamic and conventional banks. The analysis in this paper is conducted using the standard dynamic system generalized method of moments (system GMM) regressions and includes a panel of 108 banks over the period between 2004 and 2019. From the results, it can be concluded that the capital buffer of Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia is procyclical. From the results, it can also be concluded that no difference exists in the level of capital buffer of Islamic banks as compared to conventional banks and in the cyclicality of capital buffer in Islamic and conventional banking. If the countercyclical capital buffer is achieved, a policy measure to alter the cyclical behavior of capital buffer of Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia therefore is a must. Such policy measure needs not to be specified for Islamic or conventional banking industry

Subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: Evidence on out-of-pocket health expenditures in Indonesia

Universal Health Care (UHC) in Indonesia, named the National Health Insurance (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional - JKN), has been running since 2014. JKN was predicted to be the most extensive UHC program in the world. Under JKN, the poor get free health services through the cashless method through a sub-program called Contribution Assistance Recipients (Penerima Bantuan Iuran - PBI). Unfortunately, JKN faced several failures to cover the program's expenditures within years. Within the current dynamics, was PBI, as part of JKN still effectively helping the poor? We examined the effectiveness of the PBI program by measuring differences in out-of-pocket health expenditures for the poor with similar socio-economic characteristics who used PBI and those who did not. We incorporated secondary data from National Socio-economic Survey (SUSENAS). The dataset was executed by using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology. We used health expenditures and socio-economic parameters such as income, education, and gender from the 2017 and 2018 SUSENAS data. We found that in 2017, the total health expenditures of the PBI beneficiaries were lower than the non-beneficiaries. Nevertheless, by merging all two years' data, similar to 2018, we found general pattern that PBI participants' total health out-of-pocket payments were bigger than the non-participants. Health expenditures such as medicine, traditional practitioners, and others, were expenditure classifications in which PBI beneficiaries had lower expenses than non-beneficiaries in 2017. Therefore, Therefore, the UHC subsidy program for the poor in Indonesia has not only been ineffective through the years of implementation but also has not been effectively implemented for all variations of health expenditure types