The Atmosphere-Ocean Interface Layer of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model and Data Assimilation System Volume 51

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes modules for sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal warming and cool-skin layers. To support the application of a coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation capability, the GCM needs to be flexible enough to support both coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) configurations, with only minor configuration changes at the user interface. This document presents a formulation of an atmosphere-ocean interface layer (AOIL) that serves this purpose. Previous work by Akella et al. (2017) described a version of a model for near-surface temperature variations, including both both diurnal warming and cool-skin effects, that has been used since 2017 in the near-real-time GEOS FP (forward processing) weather analysis and forecasting system. The diurnal cycle of SST in that version of the GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) undergoes a sharp decay in the late afternoon (local time). The updated AOIL presented here includes a modification of the similarity function used in the diurnal warming model. Results from offline model runs illustrate an improvement in the near-surface (less than 0:5m depth) diurnal cycle compared to the original formulation. The new formulation requires minimal parameter tuning, and the improvements are robust across long (several month) simulation periods. This new model formulation, however, retains some deficiences from the previous module, such as a small warm bias in calm wind conditions for water depths below 1m. Our future work would include surface salinification and sea-ice into the AOIL

Impact Study of the Assimilation of Surface Sensitive Microwave Radiances in the GEOS

The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of assimilating low frequency microwave observations from different satellite Microwave radiometers such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). These observations are relevant to the description of air temperature, humidity, and surface parameters such as ocean surface temperature. Their assimilation into Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system helps better constrain models in regions where very few observations are assimilated. In recent years, Channels 14 and 15 have not been assimilated in GEOS because of their large sensitivities to uncertain surface parameters such as emissivity and skin temperature. Here, the impact of using different channels will be discussed. Also we investigate the validity of the emissivity model in these channels over ocean and sea ice.Radiative transfer calculations necessary for the assimilation of satellite radiances are performed using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The CRTM performs forward radiative transfer calculations of brightness temperature from atmospheric profiles (temperature, moisture, and ozone) and surface characteristics. Additionally, the CRTM calculates the Jacobians of brightness temperature with respect to the input . The Jacobians are for the inversion of these radiances within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. Here, For direct assimilation of the radiance observations, the interface between GSI and CRTM, is slightly modified. Finally, we validate the assimilation results, and discuss the impact of each channels in detail

Progress and Challenges in Short to Medium Range Coupled Prediction

The availability of GODAE Oceanview-type ocean forecast systems provides the opportunity to develop high-resolution, short- to medium-range coupled prediction systems. Several groups have undertaken the first experiments based on relatively unsophisticated approaches. Progress is being driven at the institutional level targeting a range of applications that represent their respective national interests with clear overlaps and opportunities for information exchange and collaboration. These include general circulation, hurricanes, extra-tropical storms, high-latitude weather and sea-ice forecasting as well as coastal air-sea interaction. In some cases, research has moved beyond case and sensitivity studies to controlled experiments to obtain statistically significant metrics

NASA GMAO S2S Prediction System Hindcast and Near-Real Time Operations Strategy

In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System with a focus on the computing time and resources and actual time it takes to complete a full set of hindcasts. The goal is to come up with some solutions to allow us to run more ensemble members for the next version of the system which will be higher resolution and take many more resources