Earthquake Environmental Effects of the 1992 MS7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake, Kyrgyzstan, and Their Implications for Paleo-Earthquake Studies

Large pre-historical earthquakes leave traces in the geological and geomorphological record, such as primary and secondary surface ruptures and mass movements, which are the only means to estimate their magnitudes. These environmental earthquake effects (EEEs) can be calibrated using recent seismic events and the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI2007). We apply the ESI2007 scale to the 1992 MS7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, because similar studies are sparse in that area and geological setting, and because this earthquake was very peculiar in its primary surface rupture pattern. We analyze literature data on primary and secondary earthquake effects and add our own observations from fieldwork. We show that the ESI2007 distribution differs somewhat from traditional intensity assessments (MSK (Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik) and MM (Modified Mercalli)), because of the sparse population in the epicentral area and the spatial distribution of primary and secondary EEEs. However, the ESI2007 scale captures a similar overall pattern of the intensity distribution. We then explore how uncertainties in the identification of primary surface ruptures influence the results of the ESI2007 assignment. Our results highlight the applicability of the ESI2007 scale, even in earthquakes with complex and unusual primary surface rupture patterns

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles

Background: With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare. Methods and findings: We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and lagged dengue cases are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to 6 months ahead. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fit to 19 years (2002–2020) of dengue data at the province level across Vietnam. A superensemble of these models then makes probabilistic predictions of dengue incidence at various future time points aligned with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines. We demonstrate that the superensemble generates more accurate predictions of dengue incidence than the individual models it incorporates across a suite of time horizons and transmission settings. Using historical data, the superensemble made slightly more accurate predictions (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6–148.0) than a baseline model which forecasts the same incidence rate every month (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5–80.5) at lead times of 1 to 3 months, albeit with larger uncertainty. The outbreak detection capability of the superensemble was considerably larger (69%) than that of the baseline model (54.5%). Predictions were most accurate in southern Vietnam, an area that experiences semi-regular seasonal dengue transmission. The system also demonstrated added value across multiple areas compared to previous practice of not using a forecast. We use the system to make a prospective prediction for dengue incidence in Vietnam for the period May to October 2020. Prospective predictions made with the superensemble were slightly more accurate (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102–575) than those made with the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120–168) but had larger uncertainty. Finally, we propose a framework for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions. Despite the demonstrated value of our forecasting system, the approach is limited by the consistency of the dengue case data, as well as the lack of publicly available, continuous, and long-term data sets on mosquito control efforts and serotype-specific case data. Conclusions: This study shows that by combining detailed Earth observation data, seasonal climate forecasts, and state-of-the-art models, dengue outbreaks can be predicted across a broad range of settings, with enough lead time to meaningfully inform dengue control. While our system omits some important variables not currently available at a subnational scale, the majority of past outbreaks could be predicted up to 3 months ahead. Over the next 2 years, the system will be prospectively evaluated and, if successful, potentially extended to other areas and other climate-sensitive disease systems

Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam.

Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue's distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue's expansion throughout Vietnam

Earthquakes and active faults in Central Asia

This thesis presents the results of research centred on three large Central Asian earthquakes from recent decades: the 1985 Wuqia (China), 1992 Suusamyr (Kyrgyzstan) and 2015 Pishan (China) earthquakes. For the Pishan earthquake I construct a fault slip model based on coseismic interferograms. It shows that the earthquake took place on a well-established fault that is visible in a seismic reflection profile. However, the coseismic and early postseismic deformations are misaligned with the longer-term topographic uplift pattern. Therefore, other mechanisms must be considered to explain the growth of topography. In a reinvestigation of the Wuqia earthquake, I combine data from several techniques to show that although surface ruptures were produced along a well-known fault, the existing models of that fault are not compatible with the earthquakeâs focal mechanism or depth. Instead, most of the earthquakeâs moment was released below a detachment. The detachment acts as a barrier to geomorphic expression of the basement fault, even though the observations require slip to have taken place both above and below the detachment within a month or less. In a study on the 1992 Suusamyr earthquake, I examine the significance of surface ruptures more closely. I use remote sensing and field observations to measure the extent and scarp height of the fresh ruptures, and to construct a paleoseismic record for the fault. The results reveal significant variability in the surface rupture pattern between successive earthquakes on the fault. Finally, I use those results to inform a broader study on the Suusamyr Basin. I map the tectonic structures across the entire basin and provide a slip rate estimate for the Suusamyr Fault. Overall this thesis extends the body of knowledge on continental reverse faulting earthquakes, and demonstrates the challenges and complexities of interpreting the fault structure and seismic hazard of an area based on surface observations.</p

Earthquake Environmental Effects of the 1992 MS7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake, Kyrgyzstan, and Their Implications for Paleo-Earthquake Studies

Large pre-historical earthquakes leave traces in the geological and geomorphological record, such as primary and secondary surface ruptures and mass movements, which are the only means to estimate their magnitudes. These environmental earthquake effects (EEEs) can be calibrated using recent seismic events and the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI2007). We apply the ESI2007 scale to the 1992 MS7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, because similar studies are sparse in that area and geological setting, and because this earthquake was very peculiar in its primary surface rupture pattern. We analyze literature data on primary and secondary earthquake effects and add our own observations from fieldwork. We show that the ESI2007 distribution differs somewhat from traditional intensity assessments (MSK (Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik) and MM (Modified Mercalli)), because of the sparse population in the epicentral area and the spatial distribution of primary and secondary EEEs. However, the ESI2007 scale captures a similar overall pattern of the intensity distribution. We then explore how uncertainties in the identification of primary surface ruptures influence the results of the ESI2007 assignment. Our results highlight the applicability of the ESI2007 scale, even in earthquakes with complex and unusual primary surface rupture patterns

R code for the paper "Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles"

The R code presented here provides all the scripts required to run the superensemble of probabilistic dengue models presented in the paper "Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles" published in PLoS Medicine by FJ Colón-González et al. (2021). The code comprises seven ordered sub-routines. Each sub-routine has a number that indicates its location in a sequence of steps starting at 00 and ending at 06. The sub-routine called 06_Run_routines.R contains all the commands required to load and perform all operations in sequence. We suggest users only run that script