TSA for Germany: database of the satellite account and perspectives for integration into a sectoral disaggregated macro-econometric model

The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) has developed a tourism satellite account (TSA) for the Federal Republic of Germany relating to the year 2000.1 In the process of elaborating the TSA the Federal Statistical Office (as an external partner outside the GWS) has been fully integrated and provided partially unpublished data. In the first part of the paper major steps in calculating the monetary TSA-tables 1 to 6 are presented. It will be shown how this specific nformation has been used in the process of TSA preparation and what empirical results are obtained to the year 2000 for Germany. In the last part of the paper the structure of the tourism economic simulation and forecasting model VOYAGE is presented. GWS has gained experience in such a theme-specific macroeconomic modelling approach. The model VOYAGE is based on the German TSA for the year 2000 which will be consistently integrated into the German INFORGE model. Its performance is founded on the INFORUM philosophy to build econometric input-output models bottom up and fully integrated. The model YOYAGE with its tourism economic extensions can be used e. g. for analysing the economic impacts of behaviour modifications in tourism or of big events.TSA, Germany, tourism satellite account, perspectives for integration, macro-econometric model

What does Germany expect to gain from hosting the 2006 Football World Cup – Macroeconomic and Regionaleconomic Effects

The paper will present some estimates of the potential macro- and regionaleconomic effects for the German economy from hosting the football world cup 2006. The results have been prepared in the years 2000 and 2001 using the sport-economic simulation model SPORT (Ahlert 2001). The model has a special focus on analyzing sport-economic activities and has been constructed within the framework of a research project financed by the Ministry of the Interior (Meyer & Ahlert, 2000). It is based on a sport-economic satellite account - a detailed sport-economic database in conformity with concepts and definitions of the S.A - which has been integrated into the German I.FORGE model. Its performance is founded on the I.FORUM philosophy (Almon 1991). The simulation results are based on a szenario which take into account the necessary investments for upgrading the stadium facilities in the venues of the event as well as the tourism expenditure of incoming world cup visitors during the event in 2006. The results will illustrate the importance of modelling sport-economic activities in deep sectoral and intertemporal detail. Besides the macroeconomic national effects, the paper explains, how these effects can be transmitted to the regional level of the German federal state level by the econometric model system LÄNDER. This model system is founded on the national accounts for Länder and specifies the economic development of every single of the 16 federal states in the context of the expected macroeconomic development calculated within the SPORT model on the national level (Meyer & Ahlert 2003). The results will show that it is possible to estimale the potential macroeconomic effects of the soccer World Cup 2006 on the national and regional level. Under favourable conditions - independent of the type of financing these necessary investments - the staging of the football World Cup positively influences income and employment.Germany, Football World Cup 2006, Macroeconomic and Regionaleconomic Effects

The TSA project in Germany: Results & Reactions

In 2003 the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) has developed a tourism satellite account (TSA) for the Federal Republic of Germany relating to the year 2000.1 During the process of empirical compilation the Federal Statistical Office (as an external partner outside the GWS) has been fully integrated and provided partially unpublished data. In the first part of this paper some empirical results of the monetary TSA-tables T 1 to T 6 and the employment table T 7 for the German TSA are presented. In 2000, the gross value added of tourism activities of private households in Germany made up nearly 57.5 billion Euros, meaning a share of 3.2 % of the total gross value added. In the second part some first reactions and objections to the results are discussed. Mainly it focuses on the question whether the TSA concept respectively the present German TSA pilot version ascertain all relevant tourism activities.TSA, Germany, tourism satellite account, results, reactions

Assessing the impact of the FIFA World CupTM Germany 2006 - Some methodological and empirical reflections

Big tourist events have undoubtedly a considerable economic dimension. The spectators of these events buy entrance tickets, use the traffic system and take advantage of the services of the restaurant and hotel business. The organisers invest in the extension of tourism facilities and traffic networks and provide the means of production for the smooth running of the event. Especially big sports events are important advertising media. Furthermore the rights of television broadcast and the contributions of sponsors are an important source of finance. For the respective region, carrying out such an event often means a strain e. g. regarding the volume of traffic. At the same time the event may lead to a lasting improvement of the regional infrastructure. Last but not least the regions' image will be improved by carrying out the event only due to the media coverage. Assessing the impact of tourist events is rather difficult because such events have always significant regional economic effects but not necessarily appreciable overall economic effects (comp. Ahlert, 2001, p. 116). Only in the case of international tourist events their spending determine definitely positive the outcome on regional as well as on national economic level, but especially in the case of such major international tourist events the positive macroeconomic effects are associated with substantial external effects. The paper gives an overview of various economic studies - cost-benefit analysis (Rahmann et al., 1998; Kurscheidt, Rahmann, 1999), impact analysis (Ahlert, 2000; Meyer, Ahlert, 2002; Ahlert, 2005) and regional studies (Meyer, Ahlert, 2000; Wegweiser GmbH, 2004) which have been prepared in Germany in the past to identify the potential tangible and intangible effects of the FIFATM World Cup 2006. It explains the strength and weakness of the different approaches and how these different types of analysis can perfectly fit together for identifying the potential regional, sectoral and national socioeconomic effects. Besides that the paper shows what kind of mistakes respective misinterpretation of such studies and their results can be frequently observed

TSA for Germany: database of the satellite account and perspectives for integration into a sectoral disaggregated macro-econometric model

The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) has developed a tourism satellite account (TSA) for the Federal Republic of Germany relating to the year 2000.1 In the process of elaborating the TSA the Federal Statistical Office (as an external partner outside the GWS) has been fully integrated and provided partially unpublished data. In the first part of the paper major steps in calculating the monetary TSA-tables 1 to 6 are presented. It will be shown how this specific nformation has been used in the process of TSA preparation and what empirical results are obtained to the year 2000 for Germany. In the last part of the paper the structure of the tourism economic simulation and forecasting model VOYAGE is presented. GWS has gained experience in such a theme-specific macroeconomic modelling approach. The model VOYAGE is based on the German TSA for the year 2000 which will be consistently integrated into the German INFORGE model. Its performance is founded on the INFORUM philosophy to build econometric input-output models bottom up and fully integrated. The model YOYAGE with its tourism economic extensions can be used e. g. for analysing the economic impacts of behaviour modifications in tourism or of big events

What does Germany expect to gain from hosting the 2006 Football World Cup - Macroeconomic and Regionaleconomic Effects

The paper will present some estimates of the potential macro- and regionaleconomic effects for the German economy from hosting the football world cup 2006. The results have been prepared in the years 2000 and 2001 using the sport-economic simulation model SPORT (Ahlert 2001). The model has a special focus on analyzing sport-economic activities and has been constructed within the framework of a research project financed by the Ministry of the Interior (Meyer & Ahlert, 2000). It is based on a sport-economic satellite account - a detailed sport-economic database in conformity with concepts and definitions of the S.A - which has been integrated into the German I.FORGE model. Its performance is founded on the I.FORUM philosophy (Almon 1991). The simulation results are based on a szenario which take into account the necessary investments for upgrading the stadium facilities in the venues of the event as well as the tourism expenditure of incoming world cup visitors during the event in 2006. The results will illustrate the importance of modelling sport-economic activities in deep sectoral and intertemporal detail. Besides the macroeconomic national effects, the paper explains, how these effects can be transmitted to the regional level of the German federal state level by the econometric model system LÄNDER. This model system is founded on the national accounts for Länder and specifies the economic development of every single of the 16 federal states in the context of the expected macroeconomic development calculated within the SPORT model on the national level (Meyer & Ahlert 2003). The results will show that it is possible to estimale the potential macroeconomic effects of the soccer World Cup 2006 on the national and regional level. Under favourable conditions - independent of the type of financing these necessary investments - the staging of the football World Cup positively influences income and employment

The German Sport Satellite Accounts (SSA)

The Federal Institute for Sports Science (BISp) commissioned the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) to set up a sport satellite accounts (SSA) for the reporting year 2008 according to the international recommendations. Looking on the results of the German SSA for the reference year 2008 identifies that the direct gross value added of sports sum up to a total of almost 73.1 billion Euros. This means that in 2008, sport-related services represented 3.3% of the German gross value added to the amount of 2,217 billion Euros. Some 1.765 million people were directly employed in the sport-related industries contained in the SSA. That was almost 4.4% of the total of employed people, 40.348 million

Die Ausrichtung Olympischer Spiele aus ökonomischer Perspektive

Am 13. Juli 2001 hat das Internationale Olympische Komitee (IOC) auf seiner Sitzung in Moskau über die Ausrichtung der Olympischen Sommerspiele 2008 entschieden: Peking ist der Austragungsort der olympischen Sommerspiele. Somit sind die Chancen einer erfolgreichen europäischen Bewerbung für die Austragung der Spiele 2012 erheblich gestiegen. In Erwartung einer solchen Entwicklung haben bisher vier deutsche Regionen ihr Interesse an einer Bewerbung um die Olympischen Spiele 2012 geäußert: die Städte Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Leipzig & Halle als auch die Region Rhein-Ruhr. Obwohl eine Grundsatzentscheidung des Nationalen Olympischen Komitees für Deutschland (NOK) über eine mögliche Olympiabewerbung erst Anfang November 2001 erfolgen wird, bereiten sich bereits einige potentielle Bewerberstädte bzw. -regionen auf den innerdeutschen Wettbewerb um eine offizielle deutsche Bewerbung zur Austragung der Olympischen Spiele 2012 vor. Im Falle einer positiven Grundsatzentscheidung haben die Bewerberstädte ihre Bewerbungsschriften bis zum Beginn des Jahres 2003 beim NOK einzureichen. Zur Mitte des Jahres 2003 wird dann dem IOC-Executive Board das Ergebnis dieses innerdeutschen Wettbewerbs mitgeteilt (NOK 2001). Wahrscheinlich wird das IOC erst im Sommer 2005 eine Entscheidung über die Austragung der Olympischen Sommerspiele 2012 treffen. Im Rahmen dieses Beitrages soll analysiert werden, welche ökonomischen Effekte sowohl von einer Bewerbung als auch von einer Austragung Olympischer Spiele zu erwarten sind. Gemeinhin wird die Berechnung der makroökonomischen Wirkungen der Ausrichtung einer solcher Sportveranstaltung als sehr schwierig und mit größter Skepsis betrachtet (HEINEMANN 1997, 270f; PREUSS 1999, 322f). Dennoch sind solche Berechnungen unerläßlich, wenn man die potentiellen regional- und gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte eines solchen Events abschätzen möchte. Um einen Eindruck von der Kalkulierbarkeit solcher gesamtwirtschaftlichen Impulse zu erhalten, werden zunächst ausgewählte Ergebnisse einer Untersuchung zu den zu erwartenden makroökonomischen Wirkungen der Austragung der Fußball-WM 2006 vorgestellt. Natürlich gehen die Wirkungen einer solchen Großveranstaltung weit über monetäre bzw. monetär bewertbare Effekte hinaus. Eine Kalkulation und quantitative Bewertung der verschiedenen Wirkungen erfordert die Durchführung einer erweiterten Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse. In ihr werden die quantitativen ökonomischen und qualitativen gesellschaftlichen Wirkungen einer solchen Veranstaltung systematisch gegenüber gestellt (RAHMANN et al. 1998, 89f). Mit Blick auf die einzureichenden Bewerbungsunterlagen wird deswegen erläutert, welche vielfältigen ökonomischen Aspekte bei einer Bewerbung um die Ausrichtung Olympischer Spiele systematisch berücksichtigt werden sollten. Es wird an dieser Stelle darauf verzichtet, die verschiedenen Detailprobleme bei der Aufstellung einer solchen Analyse vertiefend zu diskutieren. Statt dessen wird im Abschnitt 5 aufgezeigt, welche ökonomischen Wirkungen von einer Bewerbung um Olympische Spiele zu erwarten wären

The TSA project in Germany: Results & Reactions

In 2003 the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) has developed a tourism satellite account (TSA) for the Federal Republic of Germany relating to the year 2000.1 During the process of empirical compilation the Federal Statistical Office (as an external partner outside the GWS) has been fully integrated and provided partially unpublished data. In the first part of this paper some empirical results of the monetary TSA-tables T 1 to T 6 and the employment table T 7 for the German TSA are presented. In 2000, the gross value added of tourism activities of private households in Germany made up nearly 57.5 billion Euros, meaning a share of 3.2 % of the total gross value added. In the second part some first reactions and objections to the results are discussed. Mainly it focuses on the question whether the TSA concept respectively the present German TSA pilot version ascertain all relevant tourism activities

Die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung des Tourismus: Ergebnisse des TSA für Deutschland

Üblicherweise Weise werden im Rahmen der traditionellen Tourismusstatistik nur wenige ergänzende monetäre Informationen zum Tourismus regelmäßig zusammengestellt. Sie beschränken sich oftmals nur auf Angaben zum Beherbergungs- und Gastronomiegewerbe. Außerdem ist keine konsistente Verzahnung zwischen Tourismusstatistik und den Daten der VGR- und Wirtschaftsstatistik gegeben. Diese ist aber erforderlich, wenn man die ökonomische Bedeutung des Tourismus als ökonomische Querschnittsaktivität mit seinen vielfältigen Verflechtungen mit den verschiedenen Bereichen der Volkswirtschaft im nationalen und internationalen Kontext fundiert ermitteln möchte. Möglicherweise wird dieses Informationsdefizit mit der mittlerweile begonnenen und hoffentlich dann regelmäßig vorgenommen Erstellung von nationalen Tourismussatellitenkonten (TSA) bzw. Tourismussatellitensystemen schon in wenigen Jahren behoben. Innerhalb der Tourismussatellitenkonten bzw. -systems wird die ökonomische Bedeutung des Tourismus eines Landes auf der Basis eines international abgestimmten methodischen Vorgehens sowohl angebots- als auch nachfrageseitig im Detail bestimmt (vgl. Commission of the EC et al. 2001, Eurostat 2002). Die touristische Güternachfrage - unterschieden nach Reisedauer (Tagesreise und Übernachtungsreise), Reiseziel (Inlandsreise, Auslandsreise) und Reisezweck (Urlaubsreise, Geschäftsreise) - wird auf der tief gegliederten Güterebene empirisch ermittelt. Diese nachfrageseitige Analyse des Tourismusmarktes wird durch eine konsistent abgestimmte angebotsseitige Analyse der Tourismuswirtschaft auf der Ebene ihrer verschiedenen Wirtschaftszweige für Produktion, Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung vervollständigt