World natural gas endowment as a bridge towards zero carbon emissions

We use global energy market (GEM) model to show that natural gas has the potential to help stabilize global carbon emissions in a span of about 50-100 years and pave the way towards low and zero carbon energy. The GEM provides a close fit of the global energy mix between 1850 and 2005. It also matches historical carbon and CO2 emissions generated by the combination of fossil fuels. The model is used them to forecast the future energy mix, as well as the carbon and CO2 emissions, up to the year 2150. Historical data show relative decarbonization and an increase in the amount of hydrogen burned as a percent of fossil fuel use between 1850 and 1970. The GEM indicates that with a larger contribution of natural gas to the future energy market, the burned hydrogen percentage will increase. This decarbonization will help to advance economic and environmental sustainability

The role of natural gas in a low carbon Asia Pacific

As the Asia Pacific region continues to experience rapid economic growth, natural gas may have an important role in satisfying regional demand and transitioning to a low carbon economy. In this study, a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model matches the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2010 as well as the historical hydrogen to carbon (H/C) ratio. The GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and H/C ratio to the year 2030. The scenarios vary according to policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage gas use. Estimates of conventional and unconventional gas quantities and costs are also presented, partly with a Variable Shape Distribution Model (VSD) and supply curves. The Asia Pacific is found to have vast natural gas resources, though suitable policies are needed to develop the potential. For instance, incentives will be necessary for investment in gas and LNG technology, as increased market share will not occur if investment does not take place in a timely fashion. In addition, it is important that government intervention not create disincentives for development of the regional gas and LNG industries

The Economics of Oil and Gas Supply in the Former Soviet Union

Supply costs curves for the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are constructed for conventional petroleum, which is defined as conventional oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). The supply figures show how petroleum quantities vary with production costs over time. Five resource quality categories, distinguishable according to production costs, are used in the estimation. The quantities are allocated across the five categories in a fixed proportion in order to generate the supply cost curves. The role of annual productivity gains, i.e., technological progress, to the year 2030 is also included. Results indicate that petroleum in the FSU is abundant and can be produced economically. In addition, production costs are found to decrease further over time as technology advances. With appropriate energy policy, FSU petroleum resources should assist in meeting domestic and international energy demand

Modeling petroleum resources in provinces of the Former Soviet Union

This paper estimates petroleum endowment volumes for provinces of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) that have not been previously assessed by other organizations. The study uses the United States Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment (USGS, 2000) as a starting point. It then ultilizes nonlinear regression to estimate parameters of a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model that calculates the total petroleum endowment throughout the FSU. Earlier size distribution models used to evaluate unassessed petroleum resources relied mainly on the fractal and lognormal distributions. In fact, all the methods used historically have been based on an assumed form of the size distribution of nature's endowment of petroleum resources. The VSD model is different in that it allows the actual petroleum data from USGS (2000) to determine the form of the size distribution of petroleum resources. The model is validated by a good fit of actual data, supported by coefficients of determination (R2) equal to 0.98 or greater. It is concluded that there is a large petroleum endowment in the FSU that will last for several decades and can contribute signficantly to domestic energy needs as well as export requirements

Link Between Endowments, Economics and Environment in Conventinal and unconventional Gas Reservoirs

This paper presents a methodology for connecting endowments, economics and the environment in conventional, tight, shale and Coalbed Methane (CBM) reservoirs. The volumetric estimates are generated by a Variable Shape Distribution model (VSD). The VSD has been shown in the past to be useful for the evaluation of conventional and tight gas reservoirs. However, this is the first paper in which the method is used to also include shale gas and CBM formations. Results indicate a total gas endowment of 70,000 tcf, split between 15,000 tcf in conventional reservoirs, 15,000 tcf in tight gas, 30,000 tcf in shale gas and 10,000 tcf in CBM reservoirs. Thus, natural gas formations have potential to provide a significant contribution to global energy demand estimated at approximately 790 quads by 2035. A common thread between unconventional formations is that nearly all of them must be hydraulically fractured to attain commercial production. A significant volume of data indicates that the probabilities of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) fluids and/or methane contaminating ground water through the hydraulically-created fractures are very low. Since fracking has also raised questions about the economic viability of producing unconventional gas in some parts of the world, supply curves are estimated in this paper for the global gas portfolio. The curves show that, in some cases, the costs of producing gas from unconventional reservoirs are comparable to those of conventional gas. The conclusion is that there is enough natural gas to supply the energy market for nearly 400 years at current rates of consumption and 110 years with a growth rate in production of 2% per year. With appropriate regulation, this may be done safely, commercially, and in a manner that is more benign to the environment as compared with other fossil fuels

Technological progress and the availability of European oil and gas resources

This paper estimates supply cost curves for conventional oil and gas in Europe. Oil and gas volumes are distributed across five categories that are based on production costs. The resulting supply figures are intended to be long term representations of how quantities vary with production costs. Both economic and physical measures are used since each provides practical information with respect to the concerns some energy commentators have expressed about oil and gas scarcity in the near future. Supply cost curves incorporating the effect of annual technological advancement (i.e. productivity gains) on production costs to the year 2030 are also estimated. On the quantity side, the curves include volumes from geological provinces not previously assessed. Results indicate that conventional oil and gas in Europe is abundant and can likely be produced at costs below current and projected market oil and gas prices

Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific

A Global Energy Market model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares (i.e. the primary energy mix) of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model is successful in matching the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2009. The model also provides a good match of the hydrogen to carbon ratio, which is a proxy for environmental quality. Given these validations, the GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and hydrogen to carbon ratio until the year 2030. Three energy mix scenarios are presented - reference case; alternative case 1; alternative case 2. The reference case assumes limited divergence from current policies and technologies. It indicates that Asia Pacific energy needs will be met by approximately 46% solids, 34% liquids, and 20% gases by 2030. Alternative cases 1 and 2 represent policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage the use of gases. The good matches observed for historical data suggest the GEM can be used cautiously for evaluating outcomes and opportunities in the region. Although the model can be used for projecting far into the future, it is currently calibrated to what we consider a reasonable time horizon – until the year 2030. Given appropriate energy policies and sufficient technological advancement, the importance of natural gas in the region could increase significantly