ASSESSING ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL IMPACTS OF NON EXPECTED WEATHER EVENTS ON FRENCH SUCKLER COW FARMS DYNAMICS: A DYNAMIC RECURSIVE FARM MODEL

Weather variability can threaten French suckler cow farms which rely on rather extensive forage production. However, flexibility of the production system can help farmer to face crop production shocks. This study aims at assessing how crop yield shocks impact on farms outcomes when adaptive capacity is taken into account. Our objectives are to develop a dynamic model which enables us 1) to predict the optimal mix of production adjustments to face crop yield shocks, 2) to quantify how far the system moves from the equilibrium and how long it takes to return and 3) to measure impact of shocks on economic results when adaptive capacity is taken into account. An original dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model integrating detailed technical and biological constraints and coupled with biological sub-models has been built and calibrated to represent an average farm producing charolais finished animals. Crop yield shocks of intensities ranging between -60% and +60% of their average values are simulated in between average years. A preference for maintaining animal sales and animal live weight at the expense of crop products trade balance is found. Thought, when intensities of shocks get higher, forced sales and important variations of the area of pasture cut are observed. Essential of loss (or gain) of net profit is felt the year of the shock but can be remnant for several years. In addition, gains for good years do not totally compensate loss of symmetric bad ones. Consequently, farms capacity to face risk could be weaken over time. Minimum consumption needs, probability distribution of shocks and successions or combinations of shocks would have thought to be taken into account to assess real capacity of farms to maintain over time.livestock farm model, dynamic recursive model, crop yield variability, Livestock Production/Industries,

On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach

Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by different risk aversions and feed prices. Results emphasized that production adjustments, particularly the adjustments of area of grassland harvested and the possibility to purchase substitutes to on-farm forage production, improve farmers profit under weather variability. However, limiting the amplitude of these adjustments helps decreasing profit variability. All simulated long term decisions associated to risk reducing strategies encompass a reduction of long term stocking rate and the constitution of feed stocks. The impact of hay feed price on the market has similar effects on the long term strategy.Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Estimating a production function under production and price risks: An application to the suckler cow farms in the French charolais production area

Suckler cow production in France relies mainly on a relatively extensive management of forage, implying that production risk may be enhanced by the sensitivity of those crops to weather variability. However risk exposure is supposed to be mitigated either through ex-ante decisions concerning pasture area management or through ex-post decisions concerning the purchase of feeds. This paper aims at assessing weather impacts on cattle production level decisions. Since farmers' decisions depend on farmers' behaviour regarding risks, which are namely production and price risks, we test constant absolute risk aversion, constant relative risk aversion and risk neutrality assumptions. We develop an econometric model encompassing an auto-regressive price function and a production function which allow inputs to affect independently mean and variance of the production. Weather indicators embodied by average regional forage production for current and past years are explicitely introduced as non controllable inputs. The estimation framework consist in conditions on the first and second moment of output production, output price and profit. Following, ISIK (2003), additional condition on each of both allocable inputs enable us to take into account risk aversion and both price and production risks in parameters estimation. We use the Generalized Method of Moments in order to make minimum assumptions regarding variable exogeneity and error distribution. We apply the model to an original panel dataset containing 65 individual yearly observations recorded over the period 1987-2005 on French suckler cow farms of the north of Massif Central. Because of the difficulties to find a relevant set of instruments, these preliminary results do not analyse weather impact on production mean. However we can advance that production decisions depend on price and production risks as farmers are found to be risk averse. Weather variability of the current year increase production risk whereas fertilizer level application slightly increased it. However we did not highlight that weather impact depend on production level.Production function estimation, GMM, weather impact, price and production risks, risk aversion, suckler cow farms, French charolais production area, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics,

Estimating a Production Function under Production and Output Price Risks: An Application to Beef Cattle in France

This paper addresses the issue of agricultural production under both output level and output price risks, in a context of random climatic conditions affecting forage used in beef production. It contributes to the empirical literature by applying the framework proposed by Isik (2002) to derive estimating equations from a structural production model with two sources of risks. Flexible functional forms for risk preferences and production technology allow us to identify attitudes toward risk and compute marginal effects of inputs and climate on expected output and production risk. The model is applied on a panel of French cattle farms and estimation results suggest that cattle farmer exhibit strong risk aversion of the CRRA form, and that climate has a significant impact on the performance of animal feeding strategies

Estimating a Production Function under Production and Output Price Risks: An Application to Beef Cattle in France

This paper addresses the issue of agricultural production under both output level and output price risks, in a context of random climatic conditions affecting forage used in beef production. It contributes to the empirical literature by applying the framework proposed by Isik (2002) to derive estimating equations from a structural production model with two sources of risks. Flexible functional forms for risk preferences and production technology allow us to identify attitudes toward risk and compute marginal effects of inputs and climate on expected output and production risk. The model is applied on a panel of French cattle farms and estimation results suggest that cattle farmer exhibit strong risk aversion of the CRRA form, and that climate has a significant impact on the performance of animal feeding strategies

Herramientas semióticas y currículo de matemáticas

Para la Educación Matemática, el uso de la tecnología computacional hoy, reviste particular interés investigativo en lo que respecta al aprendizaje de las matemáticas de nuestros niños y niñas en las instituciones escolares; dado que, la tecnología computacional posibilita el estudio (tratamiento) de los objetos matemáticos y sistemas de representación y las representaciones semióticas que constituyen un elemento básico para entender la construcción del conocimiento de los estudiantes (Lupiañez, Moreno,1999) y desde las actividades cognitivas de representación inherentes a la semiosis: formación, tratamiento y conversión, de registros semióticos (Duval,1999)

El queso con Denominación de Origen Protegida Salers (Francia). La diversidad y las paradojas de los saberes locales en indicaciones geográficas protegidas

Our case study of Salers cheese production in south-central France highlights how place-specific knowledge grounds the various networks shaping the rise of geographical indications (GI) in food production. In 1961, Salers cheese producers created a “Protected Designation of Origin” (PDO). To preserve the distinctive character of their product, they opted to require use of the gerle, a traditional wooden vat, and an on-farm cheese making process. The gerle came recently under scrutiny from French governmental hygiene regulation enforcement, and the subsequent public controversy jeopardized the entire supply chain and destabilized Salers cheese-making methods. Prevailing in their efforts to protect Salers, producers established the gerle as mandatory and have since set up a governance board to ensure PDO brand integrity. Our analysis suggests that the diversity of technical choices and associated set of knowledge in Salers cheese production has paradoxically been both its strength and weakness. Local agricultural know-how forges links among participants in Salers networks, connecting cheese producers and consumers, to cattle, microbes, landscapes, wooden tools, and cheeses. Yet, diversity of local expertise creates a tension among producers who must collaborate to achieve unified standards within a PDO while resisting homogeneity. Such results contribute to discussing on PDO governance: an arena to share, compare, and unite local knowledge is critical for GI and thus for sustainable agricultural systems.Nuestro caso de estudio sobre producción de queso de Salers, en el centro-sur de Francia, ilustra cómo los saberes específicos locales explican el origen de la formación de una indicación geográfica (IG). En 1961, los productores del queso de Salers crearon una denominación de origen protegida (DOP). Para preservar el carácter distintivo de sus productos, optaron por requerir como condiciones necesarias tanto el uso de la «gerle», una cuba de madera tradicional, como el hecho de que la producción del queso se haga en la propia finca por el ganadero y con la leche de sus propios animales. El uso de la «gerle» fue objeto de examen por parte de las autoridades regionales francesas desde el punto de vista de la aplicación del Reglamento de higiene en la producción de quesos. La subsecuente controversia pública sobre la idoneidad higiénica de las cubas polpuso en peligro toda la cadena de producción y desestabilizó los métodos de fabricación de queso de Salers. En sus esfuerzos para proteger el queso, los productores establecieron la obligatoriedad de utilizar la «gerle» y se creó un Consejo Regulador para garantizar la calidad específica de la marca colectiva de la DOP. El artículo sugiere que la diversidad de opciones técnicas y el conjunto de saberes asociados a la producción local de queso de Salers han constituido, paradójicamente, tanto su fuerza como su debilidad. El saber agrícola local forja vínculos entre los participantes en las redes del queso de Salers, conectando a los productores con los consumidores, el ganado, los microbios, los paisajes, las herramientas de madera y los quesos. Sin embargo, la diversidad de saberes expertos locales constituye un elemento de tensión entre los productores que les obliga a colaborar entre sí para alcanzar estándares unificados dentro de la DOP. Los resultados del trabajo contribuyen al debate sobre la gobernanza de una DOP: un espacio para compartir, comparar y unificar el saber local es un factor clave para el buen desarrollo de una IG y, por tanto, para construir sistemas agrícolas sostenibles