Molecular Detection of Virulence Genes and Antibiotic Resistance Patterns of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Isolated from Raw Beef Sold in Abeokuta, South-West Nigeria

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is an important food-borne pathogen that can cause diarrhea, haemorrhagic colitis and haemolytic uremic syndrome. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence, virulence genes and antibiotic resistance patterns of E. coli O157:H7 in raw beef meat sold in Abeokuta, South west Nigeria. One hundred and twenty samples of raw beef meat were collected from four abattoirs and examined for the presence of E. coli O157:H7. The virulence genes (stx1, stx2, eaeA and hlyA) were detected in E. coli O157:H7 isolates by polymerase chain reactions. The antibiotic resistance patterns of the isolates were determined using Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method. Of 120 samples analyzed, 8 (6.67%) were contaminated with E. coli O157:H7, with highest prevalence rate (2.5%) found in beef samples collected from Rounder abattoir. The virulence genes (stx 1 and stx 2 genes) were detected in 7 (87.5%) of E. coli O157:H7 isolates while no eaeA and hlyA genes were found. All the E. coli O157:H7 isolates were highly resistant to tetracycline, ampicillin, erythromycin and chloramphenicol and sensitive to ciprofloxacin and streptomycin. The results of this study revealed that raw beef meat could be potential vehicles of transmitting multi-drug resistant, shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157:H7 to humans.Keywords: Pathogen, E. coli O157:H7, virulence genes, antibiotic-resistance, beef mea

Assessment of Land Use/Cover Change Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A Case of Osogbo and Its Peripheral Areas in Nigeria

The importance of accurate and timely information describing the nature and extent of land resources and changes over time is increasing, especially in rapidly growing city areas. Landsat satellite imageries of three different time periods, i.e., Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) of 1982, 2000 and 2018 were acquired by Global Land Cover Facility Site (GLCF) and earth explorer site, quantify the changes in the Osogbo and its peripheral areas from 1982 to 2018 over a period of 36 years. These data sets were imported in ArcGIS 10.3, ERDAS Imagine and IDRIS Selva, satellite image processing softwares to create a false colour composite (FCC), supervised classification methodology was employed using maximum likelihood technique. The images of the study area were categorized into four different classes namely Core-urban, Peri-urban, Vegetation, water body. The results indicate that during the last thirty-six (36) years, Core-Urban land and water body have been increased by 2.74% (38.20 km2) and 0.98% (13.69 km2) while Peri-Urban land, and vegetation cover have decreased by 0.35% (5.00 km2), and 3.36 % (46.87 km2), respectively. The results quantify the land cover change patterns in the city and its peripheral area and demonstrate the potential of multitemporal Landsat data to provide an accurate, economical means to map and analyse changes in land cover over time that can be used as inputs to land management and policy decisions

Change Detection Analysis and Deforestation Rates in Oluwa Forest Reserve, Ondo State, Nigeria

Land use and land cover (LULC) intensified by the conversion of natural resources for food purpose, urbanization, and other socioeconomic benefits as affected forest reserves and made them undergo rapid, wide-ranging changes. This study examined the use of GIS and remote sensing techniques to gain a quantitative understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC. Maximum likelihood classifier approach was used to detect LULC changes in the study area of 1989 to 2019 using three Landsat images from 1989, 2004 and 2019. The observed changes were indicative of a decrease in the expanse of the forested area of (1989 to 2004), with 1989 having (89.2%) and 2004 (74.1%) with a differential range loss of (-15.1%), and a differential annual rates of deforestation of (-1.236436715). During the following 15 years (2004 to 2019) the annual rate of deforestation has increased to (1.303364215) with year 2019 recording (90.1%). The overall annual deforestation rate in the forested area of the studied period (1989-2019) is 0.033464, which implies that there is a percentage gain in forest. It is observed in this study that the highest deforestation rate was registered between 1989 and 2004. Non-forest occupied 10.8% in 1989 increasing in year 2004 by25.9% with a positive annual rate of change (5.831312231) and negative annual rate of change (-6.411388077) between 2004 to 2019, meaning there was loss in nonforest cover. The overall annual deforestation rate in the non - forested area of the studied period (1989-2019) is -0.29004. According to this evolution, the annual rate of deforestation was estimated to be (0.033464%) for the three defined periods in the forested area. So therefore to avoid drivers leading to changes in land use land cover stressing the complexity that is related to sustainable management of protected areas, urgent action is necessary to reduce loss of biodiversity due to deforestation and land degradation

Effects of Forest Fire on the Regeneration Potentials of Tree Species in Olokemeji Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria

Effects of forest fire on the regeneration potential of trees at Olokemeji Forest Reserve was established in this study. The Olokemeji fire experimental plot was selected at the reserve. The site was divided into three plots; late fire treatment was applied to Plot A, Early fire treatment was also applied to Plot B and no fire treatment at plot C (Control plot). The diameter at breast height (dbh) and tree height (m) of the tree species in the plots were assessed prior and post fire treatment. The regeneration potential of the selected plots after burning were assessed through the occurrence of saplings and seedlings obtained. The highest basal area (m2) were found in plot C followed by plot B and Plot C with mean value of 0.64, 0.55 and 0.30 m2 respectively. The number of stems per plot ranged from 25 to 67. The regeneration potentials of the three plots were found to be noteworthy. Early and late year fire regime adopted had both positive and negative effect on the regeneration potentials of tree species. This study has established the effect and relevance of fire on forest and wildlife management. It’s therefore recommended in this study that Prescribed or controlled burning should be encouraged as appropriate sivilcultural management tool for stimulating basal area growth, natural regeneration, production of tree species seedlings and saplings

Use of Digital Elevation Models to Map Out The Groundwater Resources Base Of Kuje Area to Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria

This research work examined the use of digital elevation model in the evaluation of groundwater resources in Kuje Area, Nigeria. This was achieved through the acquisition of topographic maps, Digitization of the topographic maps which were glued and interpolated to generate Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and Mapping of groundwater potential areas using ArcGIS 9.2 and ArcView 3.2a software. Findings from this research show that the study area have elevations ranging from 333 m to 429 m above sea level with a moderate groundwater potential in areas with elevation ranging from 286 m and 333 m above sea level. Some areas also have ground water problem, these areas were classified as mountainous areas and are located at very high elevations. The rocky nature of the high elevated environment makes these areas have very little hope of assessing groundwater. It was suggested that government should properly monitor groundwater, inhabitants should be made to accept laws which will help them in the conservation of ground water resources and efforts should also be made by the government towards creating incentives that will encourage people to obey these laws, Conservation methods such as retardation of surface runoff, control of vegetation and groundwater withdrawal rates should be employed

A giant hydronephrotic pelvic kidney mimicking an ovarian cyst in a 34-week pregnancy

Background: A giant hydronephrosis is defined as a dilated pelvi-calyceal system with an amount of urine exceeding one Litre in the urinary tract of an adult. It can mimic several other clinical conditions including a huge ovarian cyst. An ectopic pelvic kidney with hydronephrosis in pregnancy is a rare occurrence.Aim: This study documents a case of giant hydronephrosis that was wrongly diagnosed as an ovarian cyst. Findings: A 36-year old primiparous with a giant hydronephrosis which was initially diagnosed as an ovarian cyst. She was planned for a laparotomy with caesarean section and ovarian cystectomy at 34 weeks gestation. She was delivered of a live female neonate. Further exploration was done which revealed a left ectopic kidney. She had a left simple nephrectomy because the kidney appeared totally unhealthy.Conclusion: There is a need to be careful when dealing with cystic lesions of the abdomen. A high index of suspicion is required and further imaging other than ultrasound scan such as computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging may be necessary to make accurate diagnosis.Keywords: Caesarean section, ectopic gestation, hydronephrosis, urinary tract, cystectomy, ovarian cyst

Distribution and Perception of Open Grown Trees (OGTs) on Farmlands in Oyo State, Nigeria

The study investigated the distribution of tree species, usefulness and perception of farmers on retention of open grown trees (OGTs) on their farmlands in Oyo State. OGTs are tree species located outside the designated forest reserves. Three stage sampling design was adopted in the selection of 80 farmers from Ibadan and Saki zones of Agricultural Development Programme of Oyo State (OYSADEP). Through field observation and questionnaire sampling, information collected were level of awareness of trees on farmlands, retention of trees during land preparation, farm size, type of farming system and tree species growing of farmlands. The result of the descriptive and inferential test statistics indicated that there are variations in farmers’ perceptions towards the usefulness of trees on their farmlands. In Ibadan Zone, 77.5% of farmers do use and collect products from the trees on their farmlands, while 22.5% do not. In Saki zone, 50% of the farmers were aware of the usefulness of trees growing on their farmlands. Chi-square test of statistics revealed that some socio-economic characteristics of the farmers were significant when tested at α0.05, indicating that they do have influence over retention of trees on farmland. Gmelina arborea Roxb and Terminalia superba Engl. and Diels were the most species identified in Ibadan and Shaki agricultural Zones respectively. The existing forest management regimes will be more significant if trees on farm landscape are also put on board by being given a strong support both politically and financially to reduce over burden of illegal removal of trees from the reserves

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation