A systematic review of the incidence of schizophrenia: the distribution of rates and the influence of sex, urbanicity, migrant status and methodology

BACKGROUND: Understanding variations in the incidence of schizophrenia is a crucial step in unravelling the aetiology of this group of disorders. The aims of this review are to systematically identify studies related to the incidence of schizophrenia, to describe the key features of these studies, and to explore the distribution of rates derived from these studies. METHODS: Studies with original data related to the incidence of schizophrenia (published 1965–2001) were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations and writing to authors. These studies were divided into core studies, migrant studies, cohort studies and studies based on Other Special Groups. Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete rates. Cumulative plots of these rates were made and these distributions were compared when the underlying rates were sorted according to sex, urbanicity, migrant status and various methodological features. RESULTS: We identified 100 core studies, 24 migrant studies, 23 cohort studies and 14 studies based on Other Special Groups. These studies, which were drawn from 33 countries, generated a total of 1,458 rates. Based on discrete core data for persons (55 studies and 170 rates), the distribution of rates was asymmetric and had a median value (10%–90% quantile) of 15.2 (7.7–43.0) per 100,000. The distribution of rates was significantly higher in males compared to females; the male/female rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 1.40 (0.9–2.4). Those studies conducted in urban versus mixed urban-rural catchment areas generated significantly higher rate distributions. The distribution of rates in migrants was significantly higher compared to native-born; the migrant/native-born rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 4.6 (1.0–12.8). Apart from the finding that older studies reported higher rates, other study features were not associated with significantly different rate distributions (e.g. overall quality, methods related to case finding, diagnostic confirmation and criteria, the use of age-standardization and age range). CONCLUSIONS: There is a wealth of data available on the incidence of schizophrenia. The width and skew of the rate distribution, and the significant impact of sex, urbanicity and migrant status on these distributions, indicate substantial variations in the incidence of schizophrenia

Myths and plain truths about schizophrenia epidemiology - the NAPE lecture 2004

Objective: Science needs to constantly match research models against the data. With respect to the epidemiology of schizophrenia, the widely held belief that the incidence of schizophrenia shows little variation may no longer be supported by the data. The aims of this paper are (i) to explore data-vs.-belief mismatch with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia, and (ii) to speculate on the causes and consequences of such discrepancies. Method: Based on a recently published systematic review of the incidence of schizophrenia, the distribution of incidence rates around the world was examined. In order to examine if the incidence of schizophrenia differed by sex, male vs. female risk ratios were generated. Results: The distribution of incidence rates for schizophrenia is asymmetrical with many high rates skewing the distribution. Based on the central 80% of rates, the incidence of schizophrenia varies in a five-fold range (between 7.7 and 43.0 per 100 000). Males have a significantly higher incidence of schizophrenia compared with females (median male to female risk ratio = 1.4), and this difference could not be accounted for by diagnostic criteria or age range. Conclusion: The beliefs that (i) the incidence of schizophrenia does not vary between sites and (ii) males and females are equally affected, may have persisted because of an unspoken deeper belief that schizophrenia is an egalitarian and exceptional disorder. Our ability to generate productive hypotheses about the aetiology of schizophrenia rests on an accurate appraisal of the data. Beliefs not supported by data should be identified and relabelled as myths