CAPRI versus AGLINK-COSIMO: Two partial equilibrium models - Two baseline approaches

The agricultural modelling world has generated several models aiming at the analysis of the response of the sector to certain changes in exogenous mainly policy variables. Among those, the CAPRI modelling system developed by a consortium centred on the University of Bonn and the AGLINK-COSIMO model, a joint product of the OECD and the FAO, are well known and accepted as comprehensive tools. This analysis focuses on a qualitative comparison of both models and particularly on the process of setting up the baseline. The baseline is a medium-term projection of agricultural markets reflecting current policies and those already decided upon. This projection in turn serves as the base for comparisons when analyzing scenarios. It is shown that CAPRI uses generic and automatic procedures whenever possible for conducting the database and the baseline, while AGLINK-COSIMO puts more emphasis on expert knowledge in this process. Both approaches are shown to have certain advantages while the conclusion that a combination of them would potentially improve both models will be drawn from this analysis.CAPRI, AGLINK-COSIMO, Baseline process, Agricultural and Food Policy,

A typical application of SEAMLESS-IF at macro level: a trade liberalization scenario applied to the EU

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics,

Methodology and Code to Simulate Structural Change in SEAMLESS-IF: results for SEAMLESS test regions and integration into SEAMLESS-IF

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Productivity Analysis,

Report and Code to Simulate Structural Change

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

IMPACTS OF EUROPEAN BIOFUEL POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND ENVIRONMENT UNDER CONSIDERATION OF 2ND GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Even though recent discussions on food prices and indirect land use change point at potential conflicts associated with the production of biofuels the appraisal of biofuels as an effective instrument to slow down climate change and reduce energy dependency still prevails. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2009) underlines this trend by setting a target of 10% share of energy from renewable sources in the transport sector by 2020. As economic competitiveness of biofuel production is still not given in most European countries, support policies are essential to achieve this target. Second generation technologies have still not attained marketability, wherefore biofuel consumption will continue to significantly affect agricultural markets. Furthermore, biofuel trade receives more attention. Apart from Brazil the USA has evolved to one of the key biofuel producer in recent years replacing the EU as the dominant biodiesel exporter. Those developments in regions outside the EU have to be considered within the evolution of biofuel markets. The primary objective of this paper is to analyse in detail impacts of future biofuel developments on agricultural markets under several assumptions regarding the availability of 2nd generation technologies, the EU support policy framework and the EU trade policy regime. Therefore, we developed an extended version of the comparative static agricultural sector model CAPRI which covers global biofuel markets with a detailed focus on Europe. The results supplement already existing model-based impact assessments while focussing on EU Member State level and introducing global bilateral trade of biofuels based on the Armington approach. The results of our scenario analysis presented in this paper indicate that the European 2020 biofuel target will significantly affect global and European biofuel- as well as agricultural markets. Thereby, global biofuel trade will notably increase, especially flows of biodiesel from the USA and Argentina and of ethanol from Brazil into the EU will increase accentuating the net-importing position of the EU by 2020. On the agricultural markets, we can observe that additional demand caused by European biofuel production will be, on the one hand, partially compensated by substitution effects on the feed market and, on the other hand, mainly filled by increasing imports. Thus, effects on agricultural product prices will also be significant, while effects on EU agricultural production will only be marginal. This leads consequently to only marginal environmental impacts within Europe and confirm the assumption that notable environmental effects caused by EU biofuel production and consumption will mainly take place outside Europe, especially in those countries which are important producers of biofuel feedstock.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Impact assessment of trade liberalisation between EU and Mercosur countries

Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the Mercosur group and the EU since 2000 on agricultural products served as incitement to analyse the impacts of possible outcomes. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively assess impacts of bilateral liberalisation scenarios on EU25 and Mercosur markets as well as their bilateral trade flows. For this purpose, the CAPRI model, which has already been applied to several multi- and bilateral trade liberalisation scenarios in the past, has been adopted in several ways. (1) Trading blocks in CAPRI have been expanded so that the Mercosur countries are now represented with country specific behavioural functions and explicit trade flows. (2) The parameters of these behavioural functions have been calibrated using recently estimated supply and demand elasticities (CAP, E. ET AL., 2006) as prior information in a constrained Bayesian framework (HECKELEI, T. ET AL., 2005). (3) Two different baselines scenarios varying in the assumed production potential of the Mercosur countries were defined with experts from these countries. This approach reflects that developments in Mercosur countries are very dynamic with lots of uncertainties. It also provides analysis of results dependent on baselines which is an innovation in CAPRI (technically and qualitatively). In this paper three selected scenarios are analysed. The first scenario reflects an unilateral partial liberalisation between the EU25 and the Mercosur countries by allocating additional Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) to the Mercosur countries for certain products based on an official EU proposal (USDA, 2005). The second scenario combines the partial unilateral liberalisation with the multilateral WTO G20 proposal. Sensitive products are defined according to JEAN, S. et al. (2006). The third comprises a bilateral full liberalisation between the EU25 and the Mercosur countries by allowing quota and duty free access in both directions for all agricultural products. The results focus on welfare effects and the market balances of seven key commodities (wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, bovine meat, chicken and pork). Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis on the elasticities of substitution between foreign and domestic produced goods that drive demand of trade flows is provided and shows that the choice of those elasticities is very crucial with respect to model results.Trade liberalisation, Mercosur, CAPRI, Armington., Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Finite difference time domain analysis of fractal antennas used in wireless communications

The advances in wireless technology and the ever-growing demand for multiband and smaller antennas in wireless communications has led to the field of mathematics known as fractal. The use of fractal geometry in antenna design has created a significant amount of interest within the wireless communications societies and most importantly, antenna design. This thesis investigates the performance and optimization of fractal antennas used in wireless communications. The principle analytical tool utilized in the study is the Finite Difference Time Domain technique (FDTD). This numerical method was applied to calculate the electromagnetic propagation characteristics of the Sierpinski gasket and Koch snowflake fractal antennas. Numerical results were computed for the two fractal antennas and compared to a conventional antenna. The input impedance, radiation pattern, the return loss and far field condition of these antennas are computed and analyzed. The Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) simulated results were collected and showed to be in good agreement