World oil : availability and price the next ten years

This report was prepared as a background paper for presentation and discussion at the Asian Development Bank's Regional Meeting on Energy Policy held on December 11-12, 1986 in ManilaNational Science Foundation, SES-8412971 and Center for Energy Policy Researc

Crude oil supply curves

Short-run cost curves shift over time as depletion counters increasing knowledge. Under competition, a rightward (leftward) shift indicates lower (higher) cost and greater (lesser) productivity. A simple coefficient captures the slope, and its changes. USA crude oil productivity rose for many years, declined after 1972. In natural gas it can only be discerned since 1984, but has if anything increased. OPEC productivity rose greatly before 1970, reflecting greater plenty not scarcity; later years are not measurable. Non-OPEC productivity increased greatly after 1980.Supported by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

Sustainable growth and valuation of mineral reserves

The annual change in the value of an in-ground mineral is equal to the increase or decrease of inventories ("reserves"), multiplied by the market value of a reserve unit. The limited shrinking resource base does not exist. Its inter-generational optimizing is a phantom problem. If there is any "Hotelling rent" it is captured by the reserve market value, which is created by investment in knowledge (exploration) and in productive facilities (development). There are problems of concepts and data. But examples for recent years suggest that mineral value changes are small

An aggregate model of petroleum production capacity and supply forecasting

This paper presents a complete discussion and documentation of the M.I.T. World Oil Project Aggregate Supply Model. First, the theoretical development and methodology are presented. The relationships between geologic and economic characteristics are analyzed and a system of equations representing the inertial process model are derived. Next, the construction of the data is described and the data, by country segment, is presented in detail. Methods of bridging the many gaps in the data are discussed. Finally, the simulation forecasts of the model are presented through 1990. *This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DAR 78-19044. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF. The work also is supported by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research. We wish to thank the following individuals for their comments on earlier drafts: P. Eckbo, H. Jacoby, R. Pindyck, J. Smith, and M. Zimmerman. Also, for research assistance and help in data analysis we thank J. Carson, W. Christian, D. McDonald, H. Owsley, G. Ward, and, in particular, A. Sterling. For editing and typing we are grateful to S. Mehta and A. Sanderson.NSF grant no. DAR 78-19044

Oil and natural gas reserve prices, 1982-2002 : implications for depletion and investment cost

A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ₆ of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a measure of the unit investment cost (long-run marginal cost) of creating new oil and gas reserves. The data are also used to examine the impact of reserves status (producing or not), the rate of production (R/P ratios) and of wellhead prices on reserve prices, and to reveal oil and natural gas price expectations embedded in reserve prices. Noticeable differences are disclosed between oil price expectations (ambiguous) and natural gas (positive). Estimates are made of current market values of US oil and gas reserves. Over the 21 year time span studied the trend in oil reserve prices is zero to mildly negative, that in natural gas is zero to mildly positive. All of these results -- the reserve prices themselves, their trends, and estimates of one year returns on holding reserve assets-- are incompatible with Hotelling doctrines. All these estimates refute the assumption of a fixed stock of hydrocarbons whose incessant decrease by production makes the still unproduced remainder constantly more valuable. The results are compatible with a process whereby investment adds to reserves even as production depletes them

The value of United States oil and gas reserves

The object of this research is to estimate a time series, starting in 1979, for the value of in-ground oil reserves and natural gas reserves in the United States. Relatively good statistics exist for the physical quantities. (Regrettably, they will now be compiled only in alternate years.) Our task is to estimate the unit values. We focus mainly on data from the mid 1980s to the end of 1994.Supported by the United States Department of Energy