PREDICTING PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION USING TRIGONOMETRIC REGRESSION MODEL

This study is used to model and forecast Nigerian motor gasoline consumption using the Trigonometric Regression model which has the capabilities of handling nonlinear time series. The time plot of Nigerian motor gasoline consumption showed the series is nonlinear. The Trigonometric regression model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Square method. From the result, the coefficients of the model influenced Nigerian motor gasoline consumption and a unit increase may lead to an increase or decrease. The values of coefficient of determination (R^2) revealed that the coefficients of the model explained the variations in Nigerian motor gasoline consumption up to 83%. The value of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R ̅^2 ) also revealed that the model is a good fit and has high predictive power. Therefore, the Nigerian motor gasoline consumption forecast from 1980 to 2038 indicated continuous fluctuations from year to year. The shape of the out-sample forecast from 2019 to 2038 exhibited a bell shape. Conclusively, based on the results obtained, the proposed model can be used to obtain future values for Nigerian motor gasoline consumption. This will enhance the Government and shareholders to put in place proper plans and logistics to curtail the challenges that may arise from Nigerian motor gasoline consumption and distribution presently and in the future

Relationship Between the Standard of Living, Economic Situation, and Security Situation of Nigerians During The Covid-19 Pandemic. A Non-Parametric Analysis Approach

The Covid-19 pandemic has crippled the economic activities of so many nations across the globe since its outbreak in 2019. This study is focused on the resultant effect of the covid-19 pandemic in terms of standard of living, perception of economic and security situation of Nigerians. This study used a non-parametric approach involving Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Whitney U to analyze primary data acquired from NoiPolls’ online administration of questionnaires during the Covid-19. The result obtained from this study depicts that there is a significant relationship between the security situation and perception of the country’s economic situation. The standard of living of Nigerians was studied alongside their perception of the economic situation and we observed that there is a significant relationship between these two. This was also examined based on gender, the Mann-Whitney U test was used to check if there exists any form of difference between males and females based on the security situation, economic perception, and standard of living. The test result showed that there is no significant difference in the standard of living of both males and females but significant differences were observed in the economic perception and security situations. A bar chart was further used to visually assess these differences where it is seen that females feel more secure compared to males and females feel less satisfied with the country’s economic situation compared to the males

Modelling and Forecasting Climate Time Series with State-Space Model

This study modelled and estimated climatic data using the state-space model. The study was specifically to identify the pattern of the trend movement i.e., increase or decrease in the occurrence of the climatic change; to use of Univariate Kalman Filter for the computation of the likelihood function for climatic projections; to modelling the climatic dataset using the state-space model and to assess the forecasting power of the state-space models. The data used for the work includes temperature and rainfall for periods January 1991 to December 2017. The data are tested for normality. Shapiro-Wilk, Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of normality for the climatic data all showed that the variables are not normally distributed. The work spans the use of breaking trend regression model to fit climatic data to estimate the slopes which show much increase in climatic data has been recorded from the initial time data collection until the present. Investigations and diagnostic are carried out by checking for corrections in the residuals and also checking for periodicity in the residuals. The results of this investigation show significant autocorrelation in the residuals indicating the presence of underlying noise terms which is not accounted for. By treating the residual as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process whereby we can obtain its spectral density, the result from the parametric spectral estimate shows underlying periodic patterns for monthly data, thus, leads to a discussion on the need to treat climatic data as a structural time series model. We select appropriate models by considering the goodness of fit of the model by comparing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values. Parameters are estimated and accomplished with some measures of precision

A NON-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON NIGERIANS’ WELL-BEING BASED ON GEOPOLITICAL ZONES

The COVID-19 pandemic has crippled the economic activities of so many nations across the globe since its outbreak in 2019. This study is focused on the consequential effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of standard of living, and perception of economic and security situation of Nigerians. A nonparametric approach was adopted on a primary data obtained through the administration of questionnaires online by NoiPolls during the COVID-19 period. The result obtained from this study depicts that there is a significant relationship between the security situation and perception of the country’s economic situation. Kruskal-Wallis test was used to check if there is a significant difference in economic perception, security situation and standard of living where it was observed that there exists a significant difference based on the geopolitical zone. We, therefore, recommend that efforts should be made by the government towards improving the economic state of affairs especially in the southern part of the country as this will in the long run lead to sustainable cities and communities across the geopolitical zones which is one of the goals of SDGs. Moreover, efforts should also be made by the government towards improving the security situation in the north and southeast as improvement in the country’s economic situation has a direct influence on the security position of the country

Ridge Estimation’s E�ectiveness for Multiple Linear Regression with Multicollinearity: An Investigation Using Monte-Carlo Simulations

The goal of this research is to compare multiple linear regression coe�cient estimation technique with multicollinearity. In order to quantify the e�ectiveness of estimations by the mean of average mean square error, the ordinary least squares technique (OLS), modified ridge regression method (MRR), and generalized Liu-Kejian method (LKM) are compared with the Average Mean Square Error (AMSE). For this study, the simulation scenarios are 3 and 5 independent variables with zero mean normally distributed random error of variance 1, 5, and 10, three correlation coe�cient levels; i.e., low (0.2), medium (0.5), and high (0.8) are determined for independent variables, and all combinations are performed with sample sizes 15, 55, and 95 by Monte Carlo simulation technique for 1,000 times in total. As the sample size rises, the AMSE decreased. The MRR and LKM both outperformed the OLS. At random error of variance 10, the MRR is the most suitable for all circumstance

On the Performance of Dirichlet Prior Mixture of Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Zero Truncated Count Data

In this study, the performance of Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (DPMGLMMs) was examined against some competing models for fitting zero-truncated count data. The Bayesian models such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain GLMMs, Bayesian Discrete Weibull and the frequentists models such as Zero truncated Poisson, Zero truncated Binomial and Zero truncated Geometric models were compared with the proposed DPMGLMMs model. Simulation and life count data from health domain was used to compare the performance of DPMGLMM with the Bayesian and frequentist models considered in this study. The results showed that the DPMGLMM outperformed other models considered for fitting count data that is truncated at zero

Vector Autoregressive Modeling of COVID-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria

With the outbreak of COVID-19, a lot of studies have been carried out in various science disciplines to either reduce the spread or control the increasing trend of the disease. Modeling the outbreak of a pandemic is pertinent for inference making and implementation of policies. In this study, we adopted the Vector autoregressive model which takes into account the dependence that exists between both multivariate variables in modeling and forecasting the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Nigeria. A co-integration test was carried out prior to the application of the Vector Autoregressive model. An autocorrelation test and a test for heteroscedasticity were further carried out where it was observed that there exists no autocorrelation at lag 3 and 4 and there exists no heteroscedasticity respectively. It was observed from the study that there is a growing trend in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. A Vector Autoregressive model of lag 4 was adopted to make a forecast of the number of cases and death. The forecast also reveals a rising trend in the number of infections and deaths. The government therefore needs to put further measures in place to curtail the spread of the virus and aim towards flattening the curve

Analysis of Reported Cases of Diabetes Disease in Nigeria: A Survival Analysis Approach

The goal of this study is to look at the survival time distribution for diabetes patients at the National Hospital Abuja, taking into account a variety of variables. The Kaplan Meierestimator indicated that there is no statistically significant difference in the distribution of survival time by sex, despite the fact that married patients were seen to live longer than single patients. Patients in urban and rural areas had the same estimated survival distribution after testing. It is observed that the Cox proportional model was significant when tested since the pvalue = 0.000 was less than the 0.05 threshold. The distribution of survival time for patients with diabetes is shown to be substantially different for patients of the four age categories included in the study, indicating that the relative risk of patients is based on age. Every patient is predicted to acquire the danger at about the same time, with no sex-related multiplication impact. It was found out that the disease's prevalence is unaffected by several of the variables studied, indicating that more regular medical checks are required

DATA ARCHITECTURE OF BUILDING MATERIALS USING WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MATERIAL MANAGEMENT

Construction materials are vital resources in the running of the construction industry, whereas, the issues of unavailability, over-supply, storage of materials and construction waste have dire consequences for the environment. The study aimed to evaluate the concept of data architecture of building materials using web-based technologies with a view to ensuring sustainable material management. The study made use of a web-based system developed using HTML, PHP programming language and a database system through MySQL. An evaluation of the system showed the capabilities of using the web-based system to estimate building materials to be used on the construction project. The system showed the proficiency of storing the total inventory of building materials on a construction project. Finally, the web-based system is able to use raw data from the building materials to generate reports that can be used to achieve sustainable material management. Construction professionals are able to compare actual materials used on their projects versus the estimated values. These information can be useful in effective and efficient planning and decision making on ongoing projects and future developments

Measure of Volatility and Its Forecasting: Evidence from Naira / Dollar Exchange Rat

Background: HIV/AIDS is endemic in Nigeria since the first case was reported in 1986. Several risk factors contribute to its prevalence, and the successive government has devised different programs to halt the spread. Awareness is one of those programs that helps to promote voluntary testing and prevention of HIV. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of awareness of HIV/AIDS among private and public primary school pupils in Ado-Odo, Ota, Southwest Nigeri