In the Beginning, There Was Social Policy: Developments in Social Policy in the European Union from 1972 through 2008

This paper argues that the evolution of social policy – vulgo: labor market mandates – in the European Union seems to follow a set path. Intervals of activism have been followed by challenges and checks to its development, but Treaty innovations (inter al.) have provided the impetus for further activism. The classic and first case in point was the Single European Act (1976), which presaged a new bout of legislation by widening the reach of qualified majority voting. The next was Maastricht, or the Treaty on European Union (1991) and the Agreement on Social Policy, which for the first time established a firm basis for social policy. An intermediate but instructive step was passage of the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) which formally incorporated the latter into the main body of the treaty rather than leaving it as a Protocol appended to the treaty, The most recent instance is the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe, which was to morph into the Reform (or Lisbon) Treaty of December 2007. This agreement portends more fundamental reforms for two reasons. First, it implies new legislation in the area of labor relations (issues such as pay determination, the rights to strike/lockout, and the right of association) previously expressly excluded from social policy. Second, it will test some member states applying European law, which means that theoretical opt outs may be just that. And, if history is any guide, there will be subsequent consolidation to bring the labor standards set under legislation into line with European Court of Justice decisions and a further ratcheting-up of standards.

The Performance Effects of Unions. Codetermination, and Employee Involvement: Comparing the United States and Germany (With an Addendum on the United Kingdom)

Drawing on evidence from the United States and Germany, this paper offers a survey of the effects of worker representation (in unions and works councils) and innovative work practices on firm performance. The interaction between worker representation and high performance work practices provides a practical means of peering inside the black box of the collective voice model, even if there is as yet no well-determined hierarchy for productivity performance and certainly no blue-print for the future of unions. An addendum sketches the British evidence.worker representation, unions, codetermination, employee involvement mechanisms, innovative work practices, firm/establishment performance

Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries

violence;international relations;international security;terrorism

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Understanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700,000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning – being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research

Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in the framework of a competing risks model, where the destination states are employment and inactivity. The major innovation is the use of a split-population approach to accommodate the presence of defective risks in the context of the competing risks model. Certain of the regressors that affect the conditional hazards are allowed to influence defective risks. Unobserved individual heterogeneity among the susceptible populations is also controlled for. Access to unemployment benefits and age are accorded special emphasis because of their influence on defective risks and escape rates.

How Does the Unemployment Insurance System Shape the Time Profile of Jobless Duration?

This paper examines the effects of unemployment insurance on escape rates from unemployment using data from the 1998 Displaced Worker Survey. Transitions from unemployment to employment are modeled using a flexible representation of the baseline hazard function and allowing for discrete changes through time in the effects of unemployment insurance benefits, as well as those of the other covariates. The impact of unemployment insurance is also modeled using a time-varying benefits measure, namely, time to exhaustion of benefits. Potential biases stemming from reverse causation and unobserved individual heterogeneity are accommodated. Both approaches render transparent the major disincentive effects of access to benefits on re-employment rates while also providing evidence of time-varying effects of other regressors.

Are Good Industrial Relations Good for the Economy?

Using international data, we investigate whether the quality of industrial relations matters for the macro economy. We measure industrial relations inversely by strikes Ð which proxy we cross-check with an industrial relations reputation indicator Ð and our macro performance indicator is the unemployment rate. Independent of the role of other institutions, good industrial relations do seem to matter: greater strike volume is associated with higher unemployment. But these results apply in cross section. Holding country effects constant, the sign of the strikes coefficient is abruptly reversed. Although it does not seem to be the case that the line of causation runs from unemployment to strikes once we control for the endogeneity of strikes, it is also the case that support for the strikes proxy for industrial relations quality is much eroded.strikes, industrial relations quality, unemployment, labor market institutions, cross-country data