1 research outputs found
Ebola transmission dynamics: will future Ebola outbreaks become cyclic?
The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can persist in some body fluids after clinical
recovery. In Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, there are
well-documented cases of EVD reemergence that were associated with previous
outbreaks. In many cases, male EVD survivors were associated with the
re-introduction of new outbreaks. This has shown that even after controlling an
EVD outbreak, a close biomedical monitoring of survivors and contacts is
critical to avoiding future outbreaks. Thus, in order to explore the main
features of EVD transmission dynamics in the context of re-emergence, we used a
compartmental model by considering vaccination around EVD contacts. Analytical
and numerical analyses of the model were conducted. The model is mathematically
and epidemiologically well-posed. We computed the reproductive number (R0) and
the disease equilibrium points (disease-free equilibrium and endemic
equilibrium) for the re-emerging outbreak. The stability analysis of the model
around those equilibrium points was performed. The model undergoes a backward
bifurcation at R0 close to 1, regardless R0 < 1, the disease will not be
eradicated. This means that R0 cannot be considered as an intervention control
measure in our model