The Defense-growth nexus: An application for the Israeli-Arab conflict

This paper revisits the defence-growth nexus for the rivals of the Israeli-Arab conflict over the last four decades. To this end, we utilize the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test and the generalized variance decomposition. Contrary to the conventional wisdom and many earlier studies, we fail to detect any persistent adverse impact of military expenditures on economic growth. Our conclusions are kept intact even when we account for the possibility of endogenous structural breaks and during the post-1979 peace treaty period. Our findings imply insignificant peace dividends once the conflict is resolved and the military spending is cut to internationally acceptable standards.Growth, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960-2001 within a trivariate VAR setting. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error correction methodology. Our results significantly support the view that financial development Granger-causes economic growth either through increasing investment efficiency or through increasing resources for investment. This finding suggests that the financial reforms launched in 1990 can explain the rebound in economic performance since then and that further deepening of the financial sector is an important instrument to stimulate saving/investment and therefore long-term economic growth.Financial development, Economic growth, Egypt, Granger causality, Error-correction models, Cointegration

The Defense-Growth Nexus: An Application for the Israeli-Arab Conflict

This paper revisits the defence-growth nexus for the rivals of the Israeli-Arab conflict over the last four decades. To this end, we utilize the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test and the generalized variance decomposition. Contrary to the conventional wisdom and many earlier studies, we fail to detect any persistent adverse impact of military expenditures on economic growth. Our conclusions are kept intact even when we account for the possibility of endogenous structural breaks and during the post-1979 peace treaty period. Our findings imply insignificant peace dividends once the conflict is resolved and the military spending is cut to internationally acceptable standards.Growth, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?

Ben-David and Papell's (1997) tests for structural breaks in international trade ratios over the post-WWII period revealed that trade ratios exhibited structural breaks in their paths and that postbreak trade averages exceeded prebreak averages. They attributed these breaks to trade liberalization policies executed during the postwar period. We reevaluate their results by comparing the postbreak trade ratios with extrapolated ratios based on the prebreak trend, and testing for structural breaks in the relative prices of imports (exports). We find that oil shocks rather than trade liberalization were the major factor behind the structural breaks in trade ratios.International trade, Trade Liberalization, Structural change, Oil shocks, Kennedy Round

The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we examine only manufactured exports, we find no support for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.ELG; MENA; Middle East and North Africa; economic growth; export promotion; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model

On the Dynamics of the Israeli-Arab Arms Race

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.Arms race, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

A Versus K Revisited: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries

This paper reconsiders the A versus K debate, namely, which factor is the leading contributor to economic growth? productivity gains (A) or factor accumulation (K). The growth accounting analysis is conducted for ten Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1960-1998. The long-run share of capital in national income is estimated using cointegration (country-specific) and panel data (region-specific) methods. We find that for most of the countries in our sample the share of capital is much higher than the conventional share of 0.3-0.4. The growth accounting exercise conducted with the incorporation of human capital reveals that for the MENA region the contribution of productivity gains to economic growth is negligible and frequently even detrimental. Thus, we conclude that it is factor (both physical and human) accumulation that drives the economic performance of MENA economies.Growth Accounting, Productivity and Factor Accumulation, MENA, Middle-East, Cointegration, Panel Data

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends and Common Cycles Evidence

This paper examines the suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). To do so, we identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Additionally, we test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. We find that while the transitory demand shocks areare typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, we do not find synchronous long-run and short-rum movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, our findings indicate thet the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, optimal monetary union, cointegration,common cycles, structural VAR

Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria

This study uses multivariate cointegration and variance decomposition techniques to investigate the causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth for Egypt, Israel and Syria, for the past three decades. When testing for causality within a bivariate system of total government spending and economic growth, we find bi-directional causality from government spending to economic growth with a negative long-term relationship between the two variables. However, when testing for causality within a trivariate system ¬– the share of government civilian expenditures in GDP, military burden and economic growth – we find that the military burden negatively affects economic growth for all the countries, and that civilian government expenditures cause positive economic growth in Israel and Egypt.Middle East; economic growth; government expenditure; military burden; Granger causality and error correction models

Financial Developent and Economic Growth Nexus: Time Series Evidence from Middle Eastern and North African Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in five Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries for different periods ranging from 1960 to 2004, within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our empirical results show weak support for a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth, and for the hypothesis that finance leads growth. In cases where cointegration was detected, Granger causality was either bidirectional or it ran from output to financial development.Financial development, Economic growth, MENA, Granger causality, Error-correction models, Cointegration