The effect of superstar firms on college major choice

We study the effect of superstar firms on an important human capital decision - college students' choice of major. Past salient, extreme events in an industry, as proxied by cross-sectional skewness in stock returns (or in favorable news coverage), are associated with a disproportionately larger number of college students choosing to major in related fields, even after controlling for the average industry return. This tendency to follow the superstars, however, results in a temporary over-supply of human capital. Specifically, we provide evidence that the additional labor supply due to salient, extreme events lowers the average wage earned by entry-level employees when students enter the job market. At the same time, employment size and employee turnover stay roughly constant in related industries, consistent with the view that labor demand is relatively inelastic in the short run. In the longer term, firms cope with the supply increase by gradually expanding the number of positions that require prior experience

Learning About Mutual Fund Managers

We study capital allocations to managers with two mutual funds, and show that investors learn about managers from their performance records. Flows into a fund are predicted by the manager's performance in his other fund, especially when he outperforms and when signals from the other fund are more useful. In equilibrium, capital should be allocated such that there is no cross-fund predictability. However, we find positive predictability, particularly among underperforming funds. Our results indicate incomplete learning: while investors move capital in the right direction, they do not withdraw enough capital when the manager underperforms in his other fund